Jeffrey Lewis

With 1 station, I wouldn’t have a ton of confidence in the location.

The attached file shows all detections at PS23 (MKAR array, Makanchi, Kazakhstan) between 00:00 and 12:00 Zulu on June 22 2020 that are associated with events in the ISC bulletin. www.isc.ac.uk/iscbulletin/...
There are no such detections between 08:30 and 10:00 Zulu on this day at this station.

Seismic data on station IU.MAKZ 2020-06-22 around 06:30 UTC

I am not convinced that this event exists. If you load in the data from station IU.MAKZ (Makanchi, Kazakhstan) at this time point, this is the signal. I am guessing that it is noise. The KNDC event has only two stations. This and closeby MK31. The ISC doesn't have it isc.ac.uk/cgi-bin/web-...

I already sent it to him!

I keep thinking I am misreading something because I don't know how I missed it in the first place.

This morning.

I am not sure that this is the event (or even that an event was detected), but previously I said publicly that I looked at several catalogues and saw nothing. Well, I kept looking and found this today.

I wonder if this event is the alleged China nuclear test: 22 June 2020/0 depth/41.27, 90.75/~150 km from the test site, just outside error ellipse. The P/S amplitude ratio might show if it was an explosion--need a real seismologist for that. kndc.kz/index.php/en...

Might have to. Weird times.

The U.S. claims China is conducting secret nuclear tests. Here's what that means The allegations were leveled by U.S. officials late last week. Arms control experts worry that norms against nuclear testing are unraveling.

Here’s what to know about US claims of a secret Chinese nuclear test (featuring @nktpnd.bsky.social and @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social )

What to know about the U.S. claims of Chinese nuclear tests

www.npr.org/2026/02/11/n...

NEW: Just got a statement form the State Department on Under Secretary DiNanno's claim that China is preparing covert nuclear tests with designated yields in the hundreds of tons.

A lot depends on what is meant by "more" and "soon" but certainly interesting!

👀

Japan Defense Stocks Surge on Takaichi’s National Security Plans Japan’s defense stocks surged on Monday after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s historic election victory raised investor expectations that her drive to strengthen Japan’s defense capabilities will acce...

big things are afoot in japan www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Still a lot of reporters over there, but boy its a lot less fun that it used to be.

Supercomputers offer tools for nuclear testing — and solving nuclear mysteries Supercomputers, which offer scientists new ways to test the U.S. arsenal, are also helping unravel the mysteries of nuclear explosions.

The last time the US had a safety problem, apparently with the B83, they discovered it AND solved it with simulations because our laboratories are amazing.👇 If it had required a one-point safety test, I would have understood the unfortunate circumstance.
www.washingtonpost.com/national/nat...

Over on the bad site, I wrote a thread arguing that *one possibility* is that the Chinese are doing 1-point safety tests, with an overrun range in the hundreds of tons. If so, and Trump wants a Nobel Prize, we should just agree with the other nuclear powers that these don't count as explosions.

(Just Like) New START is Over The New START treaty has expired leaving the US and Russia without a bilateral limit on offensive strategic arms for the first time in decades. There [...]

The blogfather @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social did 2 podcasts this week. First one is on the death of New Start

www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1221...

Conscious Decoupling U.S. Undersecretary of State Tom DiNanno accused China of conducting decoupled, low-yield nuclear tests including on June 22, 2020.  Aaron and Jeffrey [...]

And #2 with the blogfather @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social on China’s maybe decoupled nuclear experiment

www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1221...

We recorded one yesterday.

TWO PODS IN THE CAN. (One on New START, another on Chinese nuclear testing.)

Open Source Windows on China's Nuclear Forces, Policy and Strategy

Next week: "Open Source Windows on China's Nuclear Forces, Policy and Strategy" with Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social

RSVP here⤵️
cisac.fsi.stanford.edu/events/open-...

I'll be giving a talk on using open source tools to estimate China's nuclear forces, past and present at @stanfordcisac.bsky.social on February 12.
cisac.fsi.stanford.edu/events/open-...

I adore @nuclearanthro.bsky.social.

Life comes at you fast.

They’re on their own!

Hive mind: I have some students in Vienna looking for bars and restaurants. Advice?

Wrong Jeffrey Lewis!

Pretty pleased that we were able to make the identification before the Russians were able to announce it themselves.

Russia has released a video showing the Oreshnik deployment site in Belarus. It appears to be the same site we announced last Friday, the former Krichev-6 aerodrome.

Huge thanks to the gang at Planet Labs for taking such pretty pictures.