Jeffrey Lewis

Is this the weirdest Halperin reallocation ever? (Halperin talks about shifting money from "bad" programs that accelerate the arms race to merely "wasteful" ones with no impact either way.)

If you use NUKEMAP regularly (you know who you are) I hope you notice that it starts up faster now, and the starting location is more likely to be "the biggest city near where you are." I updated the underlying database that determines where to start it and it is much faster than it was before.

Photo of Tom Lehrer

My last living musical hero is still my hero but unfortunately no longer living. RIP to the great, great Mr. Tom Lehrer.

Videos circulating of a Turkish Tayfun SRBM launch probably show the smaller baseline version rather than the larger Block 4 (7,200 kg) that was announced at #IDEF2025. You can tell because the motor burns less than 30 seconds.

Joyeux anniversaire à la France libre, républicaine et bien armée!

A History of the Iranian Nuclear Program ometimes it’s good to back up and ask the basic questions: How do we know Iran was even developing nuclear weapons?

Sometimes I need to take a step back and get the very basics. That's what this episode with @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social is about.

How do we know? What's the evidence? What's the history? Didn't we already have an Iran deal?

Iran’s Pathway to the Bomb Aaron and Jeffrey finally deconflict their schedules to talk about the outcome of the Israeli-Iranian war, Iran’s pathway back to the bomb, and why [...]

The blogfather @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social and I finally sat down to discuss the "12 day war" and Iran's pathway back to the Bomb :: www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1220...

The IAE-Pyongyang is not the most important nuclear facility in North Korea, but it was the most fun to find.

Hey! We found the Institute for Atomic Energy in Pyongyang. 32.029, 125.668 #dailygeolocation Full post on the ACW blog:
www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1220...

decimate /ˈdesəˌmāt/ 1. To reduce by one-tenth.
obliterate /əˈblidəˌrāt/ 1. To delay by one-to-two years.

Wright, Grego, and Gronlund (2005).

www.amacad.org/sites/defaul...

🤷‍♂️

Trump’s National Security Council is Flailing Fewer meetings, more top-down demands and worries some officials may go rogue are upending the system.

NEW COLUMN: I got a bunch of SCOOPy details about the effect of the Trump-Rubio changes at the National Security Council. So if you were surprised by that Pentagon AUKUS review, well, there's a reason: www.politico.com/news/magazin...

My friend, Joshua Pollack, penned this beautiful and wry double obituary of his father, Jonathan Pollack, and his first boss, Barry Blechman.

www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1220...

(((James Acton))) on X: "The administration has argued that the destruction of Iran's uranium metal production lines at Isfahan will set its nuclear-weapon program back by "years." At Arms Control Wonk, I argue it may not even set Tehran back by months. Link in next post. https://t.co/pBXz2UrIa5" / X The administration has argued that the destruction of Iran's uranium metal production lines at Isfahan will set its nuclear-weapon program back by "years." At Arms Control Wonk, I argue it may not even set Tehran back by months. Link in next post. https://t.co/pBXz2UrIa5

Then nothing.
x.com/james_acton3...

The administration has argued that the destruction of Iran's uranium metal production lines at Isfahan will set its nuclear-weapon program back by "years."

At Arms Control Wonk, I argue it may not even set Tehran back by months.

www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1220...

Caine: The dimensions of the concrete caps at Fordow are classified.
Trump: They were half the size of a refrigerator door!
(I don’t see any harm in what Trump said, to be fair.)

I am sure there are lots of mouths willing to tell the truth; I think the problem may be a shortage of ears open to hearing it.

'Iranian show': Attack was coordinated with US, and there are signals that nuclear talks will resume Iran launched 10 missiles at the huge American base in Qatar in response to US strikes on the nuclear sites; But, according to reports, it informed the US and Qatar beforehand, the base was evacuated,...

The Iranians are now very likely to build a nuclear weapon and, from a narrow US perspective, it's no longer in our interest to make an issue of it. This is especially so as Trump and Khamenei seem to have some kind of mind-meld on performative violence.
www.ynetnews.com/article/s15o...

As a person who spends most of my time thinking about North Korea, I've priced in a lot of the lousy things that are liekyl to happen with Iran's nuclear program. Hoping to be wrong about that, of course.

As a policy matter, I think Trump officials are smart to lie about the destruction of Iran's nuclear program to avoid being drawn further into this shit show. As a professional with a reputation to uphold, I have to point out that these statements are untrue. It's a weird time.

What's happening here is that Iran is demonizing Grossi as a strategy to justify its decision to suspend safeguards and regime characters associated with diplomacy are piling on to build up their credentials with hardliners. It's pathetic, but predictable.

Maccallum probably added a stray word, which again is both understandable with 8 million other things going on and shouldn't matter. Then the story appears on the @foxnews.com.web.brid.gy website. That's enough for the Iranians, who are eager to attack Grossi because they want to suspend safeguards.

a man in a suit and tie is standing in front of a channel 4 news team background ALT: a man in a suit and tie is standing in front of a channel 4 news team background

We joke that tv anchors will read whatever is in front of them, but you try it some time! Having done a lot of cable news, I know she's listening to Grossi, has a producer talking in her ear, and is also looking at her notes. It's not easy.

But there was also evidence, according to two Israeli officials with knowledge of the intelligence, that Iran had moved equipment and uranium from the site in recent days. And there was growing evidence that the Iranians, attuned to Mr. Trump’s repeated threats to take military action, had removed 400 kilograms, or roughly 880 pounds, of uranium enriched to 60 percent purity. That is just below the 90 percent that is usually used in nuclear weapons. The 60-percent enriched fuel had been stored deep inside another nuclear complex, near the ancient capital of Isfahan. Rafael Mariano Grossi, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said by text that the fuel had last been seen by his teams of United Nations inspectors about a week before Israel began its attacks on Iran. In an interview on CNN on Sunday he added that “Iran has made no secret that they have protected this material.” Asked by text later in the day whether he meant that the fuel stockpile — which is stored in special casks small enough to fit in the trunks of about 10 cars — had been moved, he replied, “I do.” That appeared to be the mystery about the fuel’s fate that Mr. Vance was discussing.

If I had to guess what happened, I would bet Macallum's notes cite the @nytimes.com summary of Grossi's remarks to @cnn.com, which described Isfahan, where the HEU was stored, as the "ancient capital" of Iran.

The reference to an "ancient" site is from Maccallum's paraphrase of a quote in another interview Grossi gave, to @cnn.com. Here's the transcript. Grossi doesn't mention an "ancient site" there either. This story is just completely made up.
transcripts.cnn.com/show/fzgps/d...

YouTube video by Fox News Clips IAEA chief describes how Iran is like 'night and day' after US strikes on nuclear sites

Watch the clip for yourself! It's the host, Martha Maccallum at @foxnews.com.web.brid.gy, who mentions "this ancient site" and seems to attribute it to Grossi. He clearly denies it, stating the IAEA doesn't speculate and they don't know where the HEU is now.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=r0se...

A lie as bald as Zarif's head. Rafael Grossi, the IAEA DG, never said it. The host mentioned the "ancient site," not Grossi. He corrected her, said the IAEA does not speculate and was clear the IAEA does "not have information about the whereabouts" of Iran's stockpile of HEU.