I love that you're posting updates so we can see what actually happened after the explosions. Thank you!

Won't the March oil MET be based on February prices?

So I'd expect the income boost in April.

Trump's decision to bomb Iran is now the greatest windfall to the Russian war effort on record. If it continues, it might save the Russian war economy.

The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is getting some attention with the Trump admin refusing to use it because "reasons". What isn't is the failure to replenish it after the Biden admin tapped it in 2022, which mebbes would have been a sensible thing to do before launching a war in the Middle East?

Trump is today telling every member of the US military that it is ok with him if Russia helps Iran kill them--every one.

Once again Americans, Trump looks at US military personnel as suckers and losers that he can sacrifice for his own glory and profit. This is who leads

Iranian Attacks On Critical Missile Defense Radars Are A Wake-Up Call Iran's targeting of key and largely static missile defense radars in the Middle East highlight global vulnerabilities.

Iran took out a 1.5 billion dollar radar with a $35,000 drone. It will reportedly take about 7 years to replace the radar.

www.twz.com/news-feature...

Thanks Jakub, I'll go grab sources and save. Didn't pop up in my quick search.

What an expensive loss.

I did a quick look.

Russian failed satellite was launched 2014. So it's old.

At least some of the replacement types, including Ekspress-AMU3&7 used Thales-Alenia Space Comms equipment. I.e. European tech.

5\ A lot now depends on what happens with oil prices and Russia sanctions.

I'm watching to see if the Republicans see another chance for them to work to save Putin's war and prevent peace. If they weaken sanctions on Russia, that's what they're doing.

4\ Russia's 2025 deficit was over 8tr rub. They used up region & pension funds to hide a lot off the federal books.

They are on course for worse this year & already budgeted military spending cuts.

They were facing financial disaster then Republicans started their Iran war and spiked oil prices.

3\ Last year's "other" income was 2tr rub in Feb. They'd need ~20% revenue increase there to offset the falling oil & gas revenue.

Maybe it's possible with the inflation and all the new tax increases?

But if they do manage +20% "other" income, the deficit will be ~0.3tr rub larger than last year.

2\ They've already spent more nominal than last year. But with official ~6% inflation, final spend of 8.5tr would be roughly constant real terms.

February oil&gas income should be notably less than last year. Maybe 0.3-0.4tr less.

1\ February will be interesting! Russian budget reports of expenses:revenue in tr rub:

👉 28th Feb 2025: 7.8:2.6
👉 Prelim total Feb 2025: 8.0:5.3
👉 28th Feb 2026: 8.2:2.5

They're doing worse than last year.

Last year they added 0.2tr in expenses and 2.8tr rub in revenue on the final day.

Trump saying it is OK that Russia is helping Iran kill Americans has even the most MAGA-addled unable to respond. They have nowhere to go, except express blind loyalty to their master. If he says it, it must be right.

Two people confirmed that Moscow had provided Tehran with intelligence on the location of US military assets in the region, including planes and warships. ft.trib.al/cZbGDEU

Do you think this is not a decoy because of the burn marks? You sound pretty confident it's real.

I know you have tons of experience IDing losses, would like to learn what convinced you.

Interesting choice by the Paralympics Committee to reward the Russian torture machine.

🎯🎯

3\ My thoughts on this are a bit more complicated than I can get across in these posts so maybe I should write something and make graphs.

Manpower supply and the economic + social/regime popularity costs seem extremely important for the war's outcome. Well worth spending time to understand.

2\ The Bakhmut argument "Ukraine is trading good soldiers for prisoners and that's bad" didn't directly address my concern: those prisoners would be used up somewhere. The question for me was whether Ukraine was doing the best thing it could, considering that Russia would throw those men in to die.

1\ I'm not well-informed on the details of those fascist theories. Sounds like more reading material.

Russia's perceived "value" of its soldiers is something I have considered for a long time. They want to use up "disposable" or "low-value" people first.

2\ @moklasen on Elon's space linked to the video of the column at the time: t.co/6UREojZvtf

The discussion over there also points out how his T-80BVM got replaced with a worse T-72. The OSINT people seem to think T-80BVM are still arriving (for now), but not in the needed quantities.

Z Рука Кремля 🇷🇺 Герои спецоперации Z Морпех Андрей Кузов пошёл на запредельный риск ради товарищей. Его танк Т-72 по прозвищу «Гром» возглавил ложную бронетанковую колонну, принявшую на себя удары вражеских дронов ...

1\ Russian report on a smashed attack:

"... His T-72 tank ... led a decoy armored column that took the strikes of enemy drones and artillery."

‘We installed mine-roller trawls and acted as a diversionary maneuver to provoke the enemy into revealing their positions...the hero said”

3\ So they knew war with Iran and spiking oil prices was very possible. But they chose not to fund refilling it when prices were cheap?

The logical consequence is that this will very likely hurt US consumers and the Federal budget.

And it was completely foreseeable, so why did they do it?

2\ I had no idea they'd done this. Slowing down the purchases seems crazy to me.

It's a gamble on there being no upcoming oil price shocks, but the party in power were preparing for war with Iran during this time.

1\ Failing to refill the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) seems like a silly mistake by US politicians.

The SPR was very important for countering the shock of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

They failed to, and in 2025 even slowed down purchases when prices were very low.

The American president and the republicans could act on this to honour dead American service members, and prevent more death.

They won't, because to them US soldiers are tools and props, to be discarded when no longer useful and losers if they are captured, killed or wounded.

2\ e.g. if industry weakens and a region becomes poorer. Some of the newly unemployed/poor who used to work in a mine or factory will be desperate enough to take the bonus.

Will Russian society dismiss those like it dismissed others so far?

Is there a point at which it is a risk for the regime?

1\ The questions I have;

- do these "low value" Russians get released back into society at any point? What does that mean, given their violence and trauma?
- can economic distress generate more "low value" Russians who would take the payments?

Let's pretend this is true.

It seems very predictable. What is the US plan if the Iranian regime won't capitulate & the obvious military targets are taken out?

Is it something like:
1. remove the rules of engagement
2. kill more Iranians
...
5. Profit?