Dr David Jeffery

Are Wes Streeting’s leadership hopes dead? Wes Streeting has never been shy about his leadership ambitions, and briefing this morning from “allies” suggests he may be gearing up for another tilt at Keir Starmer’s job. But the likelihood of the...

Me, in @unherd.com - Are Wes Streeting’s leadership hopes dead? (Yes)

unherd.com/newsroom/are...

Trying to organise a drinks reception in uni:

- Cost of buying the drinks from (compulsory) in-house catering = £650.
- Cost of buying the same drinks from the on-campus Tesco = £250.

Madness.

Even among the 2015 coalition - the glory years for the wets - the party breakdown is

🟣RFM: 34%
🔵CON: 29%
🤷🏼‍♂️Don't Know/Wouldn't Vote: 19%
🟠LD: 9%
🔴LAB: 6%

The future of the Tory party does not lie with Barwell, Gauke, or Rudd - the world has changed and left them behind.

A grid of horizontal stacked bar charts titled “How Former Conservative Voters Have Voted Over Time.” Each panel represents a group of voters defined by the election year in which they voted Conservative (e.g. 2005 Tory Voters through 2025 Tory Voters). Within each panel, bars show the proportional distribution (0–100%) of how those voters reported voting in other general elections (2005 to 2025). Bars are colour-coded by party: Conservative (blue), UKIP/BXP/Reform (teal), Liberal Democrat (yellow), Labour (red), Green (green), Other (light grey), and Don’t Know/Would Not Vote (dark grey). Across all panels, Conservative remains the largest share in most years, with noticeable variation over time in support for UKIP/BXP/Reform, Labour, and other parties. The x-axis shows proportion, the y-axis lists election years, and the legend appears at the bottom. Source: British Election Study Waves 1–30.

Listening to the ghosts of Tories past - and moving to the 'centre' - is not a great idea for Kemi.

If you track how Tory voters in each GE have voted in other elections, it's not clear that the Cameronite coalition has fled the Tories for centrist parties.

Thank you very much Gabriel, very kind!

Well, that's one hell of a REF impact case study over in Gorton and Denton.

Thanks guys!

Thank you! Hopefully will get to re-run the analysis after May.

We find evidence - like @timbale.bsky.social has done in his work on party members - that we're seeing our multi-party politics coalesce into a two-bloc political system.

How England’s new Reform councillors compare in their views to other parties Reform councillors are more aligned with Greens when it comes to building more houses but take quite different views on crime and tax and spend.

As Reform’s councillor base grows, I’m resharing our study on how party policy positions differ across England.

'How England’s new Reform councillors compare in their views to other parties' in @uk.theconversation.com
theconversation.com/how-englands...

Nothing says 'start the week right' like a journal sending a paper rejection at 8:39 on a Monday! #thingscanonlygetbetter

CfP: Baldwin & a Conservatism seminar series - mailchi.mp/6b149a8cbcab...

It's a pleasure to be at the University of Tours for a conference on the future of the Conservative Party, in memory of our colleague Agnés Alexandre-Collier.

The @psaconservatism.bsky.social specialist group is also sponsoring a roundtable on the future of British conservatism.

Spent the morning geeking out on the Dutch elections - a bad night for Geert Wilders, but not as bad for the populist radical right generally.

We also saw some shuffling among the centre - collapse of the Christian democratic NSC boosted the CSA and liberal D66.

#Netherlands

Thanks Tim!

How England’s new Reform councillors compare in their views to other parties Reform councillors are more aligned with Greens when it comes to building more houses but take quite different views on crime and tax and spend.

"A clear divide exists in local government along overlapping economic and cultural lines. Reform councillors typically take the most rightwing positions (except on the NHS) followed by the Conservatives, including on tax & spend." Top survey research from @drdavidjeffery.bsky.social & Mitya Pearson.

How England’s new Reform councillors compare in their views to other parties Reform councillors are more aligned with Greens when it comes to building more houses but take quite different views on crime and tax and spend.

New article out in @uk.theconversation.com! What are the big divides among GB councillors?

How England’s new Reform councillors compare in their views to other parties
theconversation.com/how-englands...

Happy Birthday! It was an excellent workshop with lots of great papers from a sampling of chapters & wider discussions. The weather also held up nicely so we had lunch on the Square! I'm certain the book will be a valuable contribution to leadership & #Conservative studies. @livunipol.bsky.social

Celebrating my final day of being 32 by hosting an academic workshop at @livunipol.bsky.social for our upcoming book 'The Truss and Sunak premierships: the challenges of party renewal in the post-Johnson Conservative Party', with @andrewcrines.bsky.social.

Assisted dying: 56 MPs switched their vote between rounds – here’s how religion affected their choices A group of MPs switched their vote between second and third reading, with those identifying as religious more likely to end up opposing the law change.

MPs voted to legalise assisted dying in England and Wales on June 20.

56 MPs switched their vote between rounds, but how did religion affect their choice?

#UoL's @drdavidjeffery.bsky.social investigates in our latest article written for @theconversation.com.

👉 theconversation.com/assisted-dyi...

Assisted dying: 56 MPs switched their vote between rounds – here’s how religion affected their choices A group of MPs switched their vote between second and third reading, with those identifying as religious more likely to end up opposing the law change.

👏 @drdavidjeffery.bsky.social

Thanks to our brilliant academic speakers @drdavidjeffery.bsky.social‬ ‪@liverpooluni.bsky.social‬ @and Cristina Leston-Bandeira @universityofleeds.bsky.social‬ who spoke at yesterday's Seminar for UK #Teachers: The Work of a Peer with @ukparliament.parliament.uk

Great reps from @livunipol.bsky.social, meeting MPs, journalists, & our brilliant professional #alumni networking in #Westminster! A great way into a professional career is through #postgraduate study, such as our Public Admin Policy MA! www.liverpool.ac.uk/courses/publ... @prfandrwrssll.bsky.social

Is the UK-EU reset a step to Britain rejoining the single market? There is support in the UK for closer relations with the EU, but there remain major obstacles to taking more ambitious steps like rejoining the single market.

Following the recent #UK-#EU summit, #Britain is moving closer to the EU again.

So why does the idea of Britain rejoining the customs union, single market or the EU itself still seem so unlikely?

Mitya Pearson @uni-of-warwick.bsky.social & @drdavidjeffery.bsky.social on @lseeuroppblog.bsky.social‬

Is the UK-EU reset a step to Britain rejoining the single market? There is support in the UK for closer relations with the EU, but there remain major obstacles to taking more ambitious steps like rejoining the single market.

💥 New: Is the UK-EU reset the first step toward Britain rejoining the single market?

✍️ Mitya Pearson @uni-of-warwick.bsky.social‬ & @drdavidjeffery.bsky.social‬

What do MPs really think about immigration? We surveyed them to find out Members of the public are more likely than MPs to think immigration has been too high in recent years.

"What do MPs really think about immigration? We surveyed them to find out" @drdavidjeffery.bsky.social and Mitya Pearson

Assisted dying bill: religious MPs were more likely to oppose law change in first round of voting MPs will soon vote on Kim Leadbeater’s assisted dying bill. Analysis of the second reading shows how religion, identity and party shaped support and opposition.

Ahead of the assisted dying vote on Friday, I'm in @uk.theconversation.com looking at how religion, party, and demographics influenced the 2nd reading vote.

Assisted dying bill: religious MPs were more likely to oppose law change in first round of voting theconversation.com/assisted-dyi...

Liverpool might seem solidly Labour but Reform could soon become the city's main opposition.

This map shows 2nd-placed parties from the 2014/15 local elections - north Liverpool is almost as purple as our wheelie bins (...and might explain Dan Carden’s shift towards blue Labour)

NEW! Delighted to have a new article in Parliamentary Affairs that deals with the topic everyone is talk about - #Badenoch's election as @Conservatives leader! With @drdavidjeffery.bsky.social and Tim Heppell, the article can be found here: academic.oup.com/pa/advance-a... @livunipol.bsky.social

🚨 We've got a new journal article out analysing bases of support in the Conservative Party leadership election.

🧐The decline of ideology as a key determinant of MPs' voting behaviour is striking.

🤓and since the contest ended in Nov, this is a quick turnaround for academia!