Ruth Curtice

Battleships. Top game choice.

This matters because one important question about the government announcement on a jobs guarantee this week is who it will be available too including is it only for those on benefits or for anyone out of work.

PM says on radio that there are 1m young people on benefits. Presume he meant 1m young people not in education employment or training. Only about half of them claim benefits.

1. the good news Real Household Disposable Incomes (RHDI) have grown by a healthy £1,100 over the past 18 months (between the end of 2023 and mid 2025).

2. the bad news So why don’t we feel richer? Because incomes this summer were still £110 lower than they were in 2021, just before the cost of living crisis started.

3. beneath the averages RHDI tells us about averages, but this recent growth will not have been shared evenly. Food prices are rising sharply. Energy bills are going up right when the temperature is going down. Private rents are out-pacing wages. Many families are still feeling the pinch.

4. lots of ground to make up Over the past twenty years, Britain's living standards slowdown has cost families £20,000 a year in lost income. Lifting living standards is the defining challenge facing Britain today.

There's good news and bad news on household incomes.

While we've seen healthy income growth in the past 18 months, incomes have yet to recover from the cost of living crisis.

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More on the frequency of fiscal events this morning. Most important thing to understand here is that our fiscal problems are NOT caused by too many events (or OBR forecasts)- they reflect weak growth and higher interest rates that have left the public finances stretched, making decisions difficult.

Supposedly age has replaced class as the big divide in British politics.

For Chart of the Week, we've examined the dramatic evolution of Labour's vote share across the age and income distribution 🧵 ⤵️ buff.ly/2SuQ8TJ

Ha! I also worked for Osborne in 2012 so I know how hard it is politically to address those anomalies. Main frustration is with the whole political debate - we can't have an excellent free health service and an ageing population without asking some broad swathe of the population to contribute more.

Call of duties • Resolution Foundation Ahead of the Budget, this report considers the options for the Government to respond decisively to a deterioration in the public finances while also making the tax system fairer and more efficient.

Full report here www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...

Report out on tax options for the Budget. 2p income tax rise alongside 2p national insurance cut would mean no tax rise for an employee whose income comes from a job. With employment overtaxed at the moment, workers pay packets should be protected and distortions in the tax system removed.

Key point from James on the public sector finances this morning. Receipts weakness important for the forecast. One more month of data will make it into OBR calcs.

Living standards, poverty and inequality in the UK | Institute for Fiscal Studies Key research, data and resources that show how and why living standards and poverty have changed since 1961.

Poverty rate data from the IFS: ifs.org.uk/living-stand...

Comparative international pension data from the OECD: stat.link/v8jpaz

Post-2010 policy impact from Resolution Foundation: www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/...

ENDS

The Macroeconomic Policy Outlook: Q3 2025 • Resolution Foundation UK Government borrowing costs have once again been in the headlines. Recent moves have, however, been overblown: since benchmark 10-year yields peaked at post-financial-crisis highs of 4.9 per cent in...

New piece out today on recent market moves.
Key takeaway is that we shdnt be surprised UK borrowing costs are high given inflation struggles & reliance on foreign investors. Much of this is not about govt fiscal policy BUT risks mean a decisive response is needed from the Chancellor, BoE and DMO.

Great to have Sophie back!

You can see more about my comments at the summit here #HousingCommunitySummit

That matters because moving more households from the private rented sector to the social rented sector could be big for living standards. Private renters have seen growth in living standards of only 7% over the last TWENTY years, and have grown in number.

The SAHP promises higher annual funding than at any point since 2011, with the intention it is sustained for much longer (ten years). Government plans don't look like a big shift in TOTAL annual supply of affordable housing cf to recent years, but the commitment to full social rent is much bigger.

Great to open the housing community summit today. Struck by the optimism of the sector around the Social and Affordable homes programme; but concerns on workforce (not just construction, also surveyors) and planning capacity. 🧵#HousingCommunitySummit

Retail sales rise but ONS apologises as statistics crisis deepens July data late, with UK statistics body admitting to errors in way it produces seasonally adjusted sales figures

While it is sad to see the depth of problems at the ONS, it is heartening to see mistakes owned up to honestly and transparently. The start of fixing.

www.theguardian.com/business/202...

Deal!

Fantastic to work with @anandmenon.bsky.social and others on this report out this morning. Big takeaway from our panel - is the government prepared to take on fights this Autumn to make progress on these challenges. Nothing left to lose, or the window of opportunity to be bold already passed?

Keir Starmer shakes up No 10 team with new senior minister and key advisers - latest Darren Jones, previously chief secretary to the Treasury, will be responsible for helping to deliver the prime minister's priorities.

Re the mini shuffle my thoughts are with the Treasury officials who have to get used to having two ministers called chief secretary in government. Who will "the chief" refer to? www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cv...

Excited to do this collaboration with @anandmenon.bsky.social next week - come along!

Hot topics, hard choices • Resolution Foundation After a not-so-quiet summer, MPs are returning from recess to a torrent of public policy challenges. Immigration remains the public’s top concern, with the economy and the NHS not far behind. Defence ...

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Labour Market Outlook Q3 2025 • Resolution Foundation Employment and the employment rate are falling according to Resolution Foundation estimates, but not according to the official statistics based on the Labour Force Survey (LFS). The official data also...

Full report here www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...

UK unemployment rate set to hit 5%, think-tank predicts Resolution Foundation’s analysis highlights a rapid weakening of the jobs market

Thanks to Gregory Thwaites, @nyecominetti.bsky.social and @hannahslaughter.bsky.social who spent the summer trying to work out what's really going on in the jobs market. We mustn't let concerns about the stats stop us worrying about rising unemployment which looks real and not over on.ft.com/45S2Luf

Key release of UK GDP this morning, not least for the government which is hoping for some signs of growth... In the event, growth was higher than expected at 0.3% in Q2, but still slowed sharply from 0.7% in Q1. Lots going on in the data here - thread on all that to follow...

Line chart showing trends in the shares of gross income being paid in total tax by those living in five equally sized income groups, from the richest fifth (quintile 5) to the poorest fifth (quintile 1). Covers the UK and the years 1980 to 2022-23. Shows shares falling then rising among the richest 20%; rising, plateauing, then rising again among the poorest 20%, and falling, plateauing and then falling again among the middle three groups. By 2022-23, average effective tax ‘rates’ (measured as four-year averages) were 37.5% among the poorest, 29.7% among quintile 2, 30.6% among quintile 3, 31.9% among quintile 4, and 37% among the richest 20%.

Amid wealth tax discussion, it's worth reflecting on recent changes in tax takes across the income distribution. Combining all payments (ie income taxes and VAT etc), the richest and poorest pay the most as a share of their gross income. But rates are down markedly in the middle of the distribution