NWS Buffalo Bot

Mild airmass remains through Wednesday, then a sharp cold front will cross our region with temperatures much cooler for Thursday. Rain mid-week will end as a little accumulating snow for Thursday.

Precipitation has varied across our region this winter. Areas that need the precipitation include the Genesee Valley where moderate drought conditions persist. The upper ground may be soggy now, but without deep ground moisture vegetation can quickly dry out later this Spring.

Minor flooding is expected along Tonawanda Creek from near Batavia downstream into northeast Erie County. Waters will be highest today near Batavia, then Monday through Monday night downstream in northeast Erie County. Latest graphs and larger images:

To kick off Flood Safety Awareness week we are first going to focus on preparedness. Flooding can occur during any time of the year, so it’s always best to be prepared! To learn more about flooding and how you can prepare before it happens, visit

Milder through midweek before turning cooler towards the end of the week. Temperatures peaking Tues and Wed 15 to 25 degrees above normal. Rain and a few storms arrive Tuesday night and Wednesday before some mixed precipitation or snow by Thursday as the cooler air arrives. #nywx

After tonight's cold front passes with showers ending from west to east, a period of dry weather will begin. Sunday will be the cooler of the two weekend days, then late Spring-like temperatures for Monday and Tuesday. Later Tuesday night rain will arrive back into our region.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning including Olean NY, Wellsville NY and Alfred NY until 4:45 PM EST

3:49 PM March 7th - Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue across northwest Pennsylvania and the interior western Southern Tier over the next few hours. The main hazards will be strong winds, but hail and a brief tornado can't be ruled out. #NYwx

Severe Thunderstorm Warning including Jamestown NY, Lakewood NY and Falconer NY until 3:15 PM EST

2:15 PM March 7th - Strong to severe thunderstorms in northwest PA are moving northeast into the Western Southern Tier over the next few hours. The main hazards will be strong winds, but hail and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. #NYwx

Severe Thunderstorm Warning including Franklinville NY, Little Valley NY and Delevan NY until 3:45 PM EST

1:30 PM March 7th - This includes Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Allegany Counties in western NY through 8 PM this evening. #NYwx

RT by @NWSBUFFALO: A tornado watch has been issued for parts of New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia until 8 PM EST pic.

A few thunderstorms associated with a cold front this afternoon and evening could be strong to severe, especially across Western NY. Damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 mph will be possible. An isolated tornado is also possible. #nywx

Caution is advised if traveling across WNY this morning. Areas of fog have developed with locally dense visibilities down to a 1/4 mile. Untreated surfaces and roads may also be icy, especially before sunrise.

A pair of frontal boundaries will bring active weather to the area tonight into Saturday evening. A few thunderstorms associated with the cold front later Saturday could be strong to severe, especially across Western NY.

Winter weather advisory for freezing rain overnight. Watch out for slippery roads and sidewalks overnight and into Friday Morning.

While active weather is expected areawide, the main focus for more impactful weather through this weekend is east of Lake Ontario. Freezing rain is likely across portions of the North Country tonight, before warmer temps and plain rain pose a flooding risk this weekend.

Rain overspreads the area from southwest to northeast Thursday and continues Thu night. An area of freezing rain is likely for the northern half of Jefferson County and the higher terrain in Lewis County, with very light icing also possible just south of Lake Ontario Thu evening.

Increasing sunshine and warmer than normal temperatures are expected for most areas today. Wet weather will make a return for Thursday and Thursday night.

Areas of fog will continue this morning. The fog will be most dense and widespread across Western NY. Temperatures are near the freezing mark in many areas, which may result in moisture from fog producing patchy icy spots on roads, parking lots, and sidewalks.

Temperatures this late evening are right around the freezing mark with lingering areas of drizzle and wet surfaces. As temperatures lower a degree or two through the night, icy spots will develop, creating slick surfaces on untreated roads, bridges and walkways.

Day-to-day warming will continue through Saturday, with temperatures reaching more springlike levels between Friday and Saturday. After a break Wednesday, periods of rain will return Thursday and continue off and on through the end of the week.

Light freezing rain will develop across the Southern Tier this morning and continue through midday, before temperatures warm above freezing this afternoon. This may cause icy spots on untreated roads, parking lots, and sidewalks - please use caution if driving or walking outside.

Freezing rain is likely tomorrow. For those out and about through the Southern Tier tomorrow, please watch out for icy spots until the surface temperature rises sufficiently above freezing.

A warming trend will begin on Tuesday. Some light rain will develop, possibly beginning as a brief wintry mix across the interior of the Southern Tier. A mix of lower elevation rain and higher elevation snow is expected east of Lake Ontario, with snowfall amounts under an inch.

Quiet weather will continue today and tonight. While temperatures will remain below average today, it will not be quite as cold as Sunday.

Low temperatures will range from around 10 degrees along the Lake Erie Shoreline, to the teens below zero in the North Country. Winds will be light overnight.

The first day of meteorological spring won't feel like it, with temperatures more typical of mid-winter and leftover lake effect snow showers ending SE of Lake Ontario. The cold will begin to relax Monday, with a significant warming trend then following for the rest of the week.

A cold front will cross the region early this morning with a line of rain showers moving from west to east. A period of light snow is likely overnight tonight through Sunday morning with minor snow accumulations of a dusting to an inch or two. Much colder Sunday-Monday.