Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®

Here’s who we have on deck for earnings this week.

The AI ecosystem has pulled everything into its orbit, from US growth to uranium to oil and even staples.

When one narrative drives all returns, the unwind is always far more violent than the melt-up.

Soft data is screaming recession, hard data says "nothing to see here."

Until jobless claims spike or payrolls turn negative, equities will keep ignoring the noise and grind higher.

Here’s who we have on deck for earnings this week.

Russell 2000 earnings are up +45.7% YoY with 66% of companies beating estimates, the strongest profit acceleration since the post-COVID rebound.

Margins are expanding again, signaling real leverage returning to Main Street.

The Fed is betting inflation ticks up. I’m betting it ticks down.

More in today’s report 👇

www.kurtaltrichter.com/p/earnings-a...

The University of Michigan’s final October Consumer Sentiment reading came in at 53.6 vs. expectations of 55.0, holding near multi-decade lows. These readings typically align with periods of deep and extended economic downturns, highlighting how fragile consumer confidence remains.

Core inflation has stalled near 3%, still a full point above the Fed’s 2% target.

Wouldn't be surprised to see this print a lot lower next month.

Retail control sales softened sharply in September. BofA’s internal data shows a far weaker trend than Census data, suggesting consumer momentum is fading beneath the surface. The strength in Q3 GDP may be the high-water mark before the slowdown shows up in Q4 data.

Time will tell.

BofA’s tracking model shows Q3 GDP still running near 2.8%, driven by strong consumption. The economy continues to show surprising resilience even with elevated rates, but don’t mistake momentum for immunity. The Fed’s next move hinges on whether spending can hold into Q4.

Friendly reminder that the 130

The last 50 years remind us: cheap money isn’t normal, it’s cyclical.

Credit card delinquencies just hit their highest level since 2010.

Total credit card debt is now over $1.2T, and more than 12% of accounts are 90+ days delinquent.

Those with assets will be fine.

Those with debt are getting crushed.

The wealth gap isn’t closing, it’s accelerating.

Gold is behaving like a meme stock, not a safe-haven.

www.kurtaltrichter.com/p/compressio...

The October University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report ticked down slightly from 55.1 to 55. Readings below 80 have historically aligned with recessions. Pair that with 1-year inflation expectations still elevated at 4.8%, and you have a classic stagflation warning signal.

Here’s who we have on deck for earnings this week.

When the next major crash hits, there will be signs, and this is one of them.

The number of leveraged equity ETFs just hit a record 701.

When leverage becomes a product, not a tool, it tells you where we are in the cycle…

When money moves into utilities, it’s rarely random.

They’re the most bond-like sector in the market; predictable cash flows, steady demand, and a telltale sign that investors are getting defensive.

Check out my latest report 👇

www.kurtaltrichter.com/p/compressio...

BofA expects one more cut of -0.25% in October and then -0.75% in the second half of 2026 for a terminal rate of 3-3.25%.

Valuation Market Impact

Mild labor weakness can pull the S&P 500 down 10–15% as multiples slip below 20x.
Deeper job losses often trigger 20–30% drawdowns.

Severe recessions have historically driven 25–35% declines as earnings get cut and spending collapses.

Valuations Compress When Jobs Break

When the labor market weakens, the S&P 500 has historically fallen from >20x forward earnings to below 20x.

Deeper recessions push multiples even lower as earnings are cut, driving sharper equity drawdowns.

Unemployment Rate is a key cycle signal:
• Early warning: >4.5%
• Once it breaks 4.6%, history shows 5% often follows

When joblessness climbs past these levels, the soft-landing narrative usually fades and markets begin pricing in an economic slowdown.

Jobless Claims are the early warning system for the economy.
• First alert: 260k
• Recession risk: 300k+ on the 4-week average

Once claims cross these lines, the labor market has historically shifted from healthy to contracting, a key risk for stocks.

Job Openings (JOLTS) are slipping fast.
• First warning comes if openings fall below 6.5M
• A drop toward 5M has marked every recent recession

When companies stop hiring and protect cash, consumer spending slows — and markets usually reprice quickly.

Light earnings week.

New cycle tights in credit spreads reinforce the all-clear for equity markets.

Netflix's homepage in 1999, one year after it launched.

Las Vegas tourist activity is down ~13%, the largest drop since COVID.

If you are still charging outrageously high fees, eventually your customers are going to stop buying from you.

The bottom 50% of US households hold just 2.5% of total wealth.

History shows when the Fed cuts rates at record highs, stocks hit even more records 12 months later.

Asset owners will celebrate, the wealth gap will stretch even further.