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Michael Fletcher

@mefletcher54.bsky.social

Retired Intelligence Analyst. Cold War era US Army Vet. Fairly familiar with System Dynamics and History. Personal eccentricities: Scadian KSCA, USCF NM&LM. Details and periodic commentary at http://mefletcher.blogspot.com/

8,387 Followers  |  2,755 Following  |  5,702 Posts  |  Joined: 08.10.2023
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Posts by Michael Fletcher (@mefletcher54.bsky.social)

Think Tank employee has discovered, it pays really well telling your employer exactly what they want to hear. /2

09.03.2026 01:49 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Sadly, the right has more than one pseudo intellectual, but Yarvin is likely the king of psuedo intellectual word salad.

His skill is stroking the ego of his tech bro patrons by reaffirming their right to rule and their overwhelming genius. In short, like many a employee at a right-wing /1

09.03.2026 01:49 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
The No World Order Meir Kahane, Netanyahu, Trump, and the war beyond Iran.

"Trump is not the architect of the Iran war, only its vehicle."

On who's really in charge:
sarahkendzior.substack.com/p/the-no-wor...

06.03.2026 16:56 β€” πŸ‘ 743    πŸ” 361    πŸ’¬ 37    πŸ“Œ 89

He is probably not the kind of man who's going to be suing for peace anytime soon, or maybe ever.

09.03.2026 01:11 β€” πŸ‘ 8    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Do you recall when I said the Omens are not favorable?

Well, that's still going on.

09.03.2026 00:18 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

I would go so far as to recommend that the Governors convene a meeting to plan their joint response to any attempt by Trump and his GOP backers to subvert the election. This is serious business. The threat is real. We can't let our wounded Democracy go down for the third time. The time to act is now

08.03.2026 16:52 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

The time for State officials to get started and get ahead of the looming crisis was yesterday. The longer they wait, or worse, do nothing, the more they play into Trump's hands. /5

08.03.2026 16:47 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Only a firm, combined, and public stance by State officials, backed by the public, has any hope of getting Trump to back down. /4

08.03.2026 16:47 β€” πŸ‘ 5    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Again, State Governors and Secretaries of State must get ahead of this with a firm joint statement that they will brook no interference from the Executive Branch that is outside the Constitution and current law, both Federal and State.
They will not allow Trump to subvert the election./3

08.03.2026 16:47 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Will Trump and GOP efforts to subvert the election create a national crisis that meets or even exceeds the severity of 1/6? Very likely. /2

08.03.2026 16:47 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

That's the Constitution speaking.

The President doesn't have any say. The Constitution, quite rightly, has no mechanism for the President to attempt to manipulate elections unilaterally.

Will Trump try something like this? Almost certainly. The signs are all there. /1

08.03.2026 16:47 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Cancelling the election would be a Hail Mary of sorts, but so was 1/6.
A terror attack would be a pretext, but a weak one. No US election has ever been cancelled, not during the World Wars, or even during the Civil War.

The States run elections, with some input allowed by Congress. /1

08.03.2026 16:47 β€” πŸ‘ 12    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Remember yesterday, when I spoke about how brittle the world food system was?

We all knew the side-effects (Remember, "There are no unintended side effects. There are just effects." - Dr. John Sterman) from this Trump and Bibi's disastrous war would be brutal. Just how? We are going to find out.

08.03.2026 16:01 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

It's hard to believe that even Trump doesn't know this basic parameter of his job. It's likely just his usual empty bluster meant to project power and bamboozle the dreadfully large percentage of Americans who are both gullible and ignorant.

08.03.2026 15:09 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

True. Essentially the president's decision boils down to veto the legislation or get off the pot. Given the way the Constitution and the law works, the president's signature is the formality, a signal of approval.

08.03.2026 15:01 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

I'm planning to do a follow-up essay; some pro bono advice on how to do analysis with AI being one of the inputs - emphasis on just one of the inputs.

08.03.2026 14:58 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Nope.

08.03.2026 14:54 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Basic Civics Manℒ️ Here:

If the President doesn't sign a bill or veto it, it becomes law after 10 days, Sunday excluded.

In other words, a President can't just let passed legislation pile up on his desk. He can't kill legislation by doing nothing.

08.03.2026 13:29 β€” πŸ‘ 22    πŸ” 13    πŸ’¬ 3    πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
a row of white dominoes falling on a black background . Alt: a row of white dominoes falling on a black background .

Anyone tracking all the dominoes on this one? 😎

08.03.2026 13:20 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Yesterday, I wrote about the problem of AI in domestic national security. Today, I will address autonomous AI.

Some thoughts on autonomous AI, and the general problem in Intelligence of reasoning under high uncertainty
mefletcher.blogspot.com/2026/03/some...

08.03.2026 12:56 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 1

Again, every indication is that the Trump Regime wants to use AI to go full Big Brother on us. It's a huge red flag that some US corporations have balked at such a brazen violations of the Constitution and refused to play along, possibly losing billions in contracts, or even being blacklisted. /4

07.03.2026 23:16 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

datasets without a specific suspect or suspects and probable cause. That's considered an unreasonable search.
The rules for non-citizens here and abroad are much less restrictive, but non-citizens do have some domestic protections (See FISA).
/3

07.03.2026 23:16 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

The problem is that no Federal Agency, has the authority to do domestic surveillance, even of non-citizens without a court order provided by a judge and only after providing probable cause.
The courts have consistently killed fishing expeditions, that is, the act of rummaging through government /2

07.03.2026 23:16 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

The recent AI Pentagon bloodbath gives every indication that Hegseth wants the Pentagon to use AI as a TIA 2.0 dragnet fishing expedition to surveil Americans.That is problematic on so many levels. 4thA shredded.
"AI bot, please list all American who meet Trump's criteria for domestic terrorist."/1

07.03.2026 22:55 β€” πŸ‘ 5    πŸ” 3    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

This apparent paradox is brought to you by having a President of the United States that is deeply compromised by foreign powers.

That is something you were warned about starting over ten years ago, but which you have largely ignored.

Enjoying your Banquet of Consequences? /2

07.03.2026 15:38 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Washington may lift oil sanctions on the country that is providing Intelligence support to the nation that the US is currently at war with.

/1

07.03.2026 15:38 β€” πŸ‘ 5    πŸ” 4    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

This is especially true for ongoing subsidy programs, where the incentive to turn them into a profit-making racket is often irresistible. /4

07.03.2026 15:25 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

We can discuss just how much of that system is more appropriate for the insurance industry rather than government. Finally, I don't find the argument that government subsidies are meant to keep prices low for consumers to be at all convincing. /3

07.03.2026 15:25 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

The difference between this and public assistance (in other words a government subsidy for the poor and needy) is that one is to increase profit, while the other is to decrease suffering for those in true need. One-time government relief, if continually expected, is also subject to abuse.
/2

07.03.2026 15:25 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

This has been a long hidden grift/subsidy that benefits agribusiness. They pay far below market rates for the use of land for grazing.
Admittedly my bias here is that almost all government subsidies in a capitalist system can turn into ongoing rackets to boost business profits. /1

07.03.2026 15:25 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0