Oyster Analytics

All You Need to Know in Three Sentences Arroyo has become a contact-only hitter after a missed 2024 due to injury, which appears to have sapped his power. He gets good reviews fielding at shortstop, so that’s not necessarily a death sentence, but it is worrying that his discipline is also poor. He did have an above-average year in Double-A as a 21-year-old, so he’s clearly still got something, but we do think our model over-aggressive since it can’t fully account for the specifics of his injury situation. Edward Florentino (PIT) A Human’s Take on the Model Output This spot is perfect for him. He’s got a wide range of predictions from top 10s from some analysts to outside of the FanGraphs top 100. He’s exceptional at what he does, but still so young, and if he does what he did last year in High-A and Double-A, he will rocket up boards.

We're hard at work on our preseason top 100! What's one take that you think our model has bang on? And who will we regret missing the boat on?

There he goes again! With maturity comes strength and power, and he has hit over a quarter of last year's 7 HR total in Spring Training. Even if homers don't come as a teen, they might come later. We'll see if he can maintain his momentum into the regular season!

Big thanks to Lindsay! We enjoyed talking Braves prospects, including the underrated John Gil!

The Oyster Guide to ABS Challenge Efficiency When, where, and why to challenge ft. Nietzsche, Cher, and Count Von Count

We're excited to wade into the ABS Challenge discussion with our strategy guide to maximizing challenge usage! We've taken count, situation, inning, pitch location (and more), and broken down ideal challenge behavior with clear, distilled points:

This episode? It's a very Effectively Wild episode. What does that mean? Heavy challenge system stats talk preceded by centaurs and hemorrhoids, obviously.

Also, the viewing of the challenge results has some entertainment and drama, which is fun. I don't think we share the same opinion on this, but I think yours is 100% valid and well thought out, especially on the "why donate time and effort to something only to still get it wrong" point!

I agree somewhat, but I also think a lot of this revolves around how you value pitch framing. I like it, but I can understand people who don't care if that's a part of the game. In tennis, the scale was clearly in the "get it 100% right" camp, but this is different.

We don't doubt that more massive HR will be in Jones' future, but we are wary of his sky-high K rates. Without Judge-esque patience, he'll need to find an OBP tool to complement his elite power, and at his age, it's challenging. If he blooms late, he's got a superstar ceiling!

Brewer Bash Bros, Cardinal Catchers, and More: The Key NL Central Prospects to Watch in 2026 What to watch for and expect from players in each system entering pivotal seasons

The NL Central's glut of hitting prospects makes their organizations among those to keep an eye on in 2026, and today's piece focuses on the names we'll be closely following. Big slugging bats, elite catchers, and young phenoms galore!

Player profile graphic for Josuar Gonzalez (SFG) from Oyster Analytics. Ranked #1414 overall and #52 SFG prospect. Left panel shows relative hitting metrics vs. league average: Development Speed 0.70, Discipline 0.41, Avoid Strikeouts 0.74, Contact 1.00, Gap Power 1.06, Home Run Power 0.64, and negative Lift (-0.67). Comparison listed: Jose Ramos (2022). Right panel shows career outcome probabilities (Contributor, Regular, Star), all currently displayed at 0%, with an empty probability chart and a low confidence meter at the bottom.

Josuar Gonzalez is the prime example of how our model is difficult to sway based on purely DSL stats. We personally think that his high ceiling tools make him a notable prospect, but his performance in the DSL was not in the "beyond elite" tier. He's a guy we will be watching in '26!

What Really Counts? Unpacking What Balls and Strikes Truly Mean for Expected Outcomes We go beyond the stats you see on TV to provide the real scoop on the impact of count

Ah-Ah-Ah! Today, we (and Count von Count) are here to talk about why count advantages and disadvantages aren't quite what they seem! While good counts are better than bad, accounting for factors like P&H quality and times through order shrinks the gap!

Eddy Alvarez speed skating for Team USA.

This #hottaketuesday, we have a fun thread in honor of the Winter Olympics... in what winter sports would the game's top prospects best fit? Shout out to Eddy Alvarez, Olympic Speed Skater/ MLB utility threat! (Also, no AI used here; this is purely from the Oyster brain trust)

Blaze Alexander makes a throw for the D-Backs.

Blaze Alexander is a good fit for the O's! In our piece breaking down the O's post-Alonso and Ward, we still highlighted the team's relative weakness vs. lefties. Alexander is both a strong utility IF and OF, and hits lefties well, and could see PT as 2B and CF!

Shortstops, Sluggers, and Speedsters: The Key NL East Prospects to Watch in 2026 What to watch for and expect from players in each system entering pivotal seasons

Next division up: the NL East! We go in-depth into some guys we'll be watching closely in 2026, including Phillies speedster Justin Crawford and Mets big bat Ryan Clifford, both of whom are Oyster favorites! They're both in our top-15, and we're eager to see if our enthusiasm is warranted!

The Detroit Tigers Minor League Report Podcast: Down on the Farm Talks Tigers Prospects With Chris out of town, Brandon Day of Bless You Boys joins Rogelio as they talk to Owen and Maxfield of the Down on the Farm Substack and podcast as they discuss sleepers in the system, including Ben...

Check out our full podcast with @tigersmlreport.bsky.social! We talk about the progress of the Tigers' big three prospects, how our model evaluates Detroit's system, and highlight some sleepers to watch!

O's-ter Analytics Podcast Episode · On The Verge | An Orioles Prospect Podcast · 02/03/2026 · 57m

Talking Orioles hitting prospects and more with
@oysteranalytics.bsky.social
! What does their model tell us about Samuel Basallo, Nate George, Aron Estrada and others?

Apple: bit.ly/4qfeZ8q
Spotify: bit.ly/4kidipx
YouTube: bit.ly/4aa0Nrn

Ben Malgeri, Detroit Tigers prospect (#214 Overall, #7 DET). Career probabilities: 16% Contributor, 16% Regular, 2% Star. Relative Stats (standard deviations from league average, compared to Alfredo Silverio 2011): Dev Spd -0.42, Disc -0.40, Avoid K +0.12, Contact +0.97, Gap Pwr +1.91 (strongest skill), HR Pwr +0.24, Lift +0.34. Career Outcome Probabilities chart shows horizontal bars for achieving different Prime WAR per season levels (0-5 WAR), with highest probability at Contributor level (0-1 WAR, ~50%), declining through Regular (~30% at 1-2 WAR) and Star levels (minimal at 3+ WAR). Green confidence meter shown at bottom.

Thanks again to @tigersmlreport.bsky.social for having us on their pod! Malgeri is the prototypical Oyster sleeper. Totally off the radar for most, his solid hitting profile and positional upside give him an outside chance at a utility role. Watch out for his sneaky gap power!

The old standard was also measuring on "per season career-wide," which kept a lot of the guys that you mentioned out. We also employed a min WAR threshold to be considered, which I cannot recall now.

Baseball prospect evaluation card for Jacob Wilson wearing Oakland Athletics uniform. Shows 99% Contributor probability, 84% Regular, 54% Star. Bar chart displays relative stats: rAge 1.10, rBB 0.55, rK 3.14, rHR 1.49, rXBH 2.71, r1B 1.74. Line graph shows career outcome probabilities declining from 99% at 0 WAR to 25% at 4 WAR per season.

We loved Wilson pre-2024, and with the bag secured, he's more than on his way to "star" status! Still an elite contact hitter with some power and a decent glove, he's solidified himself as a key part of the A's core!

In Keith Law's #94 rank of Seaver King, Law cites King's big AFL campaign in his aggressive evaluation of the SS, but we are a bit wary. In our AFL piece (link in replies), we looked at regular-season strugglers who went off in the AFL and found that they had underwhelming career outcomes.

I'd imagine the same. But he also gives them SS depth now if they wish, as Ortiz has been so-so there.

“Graphic profile of New York Mets prospect Jett Williams. The top section lists his name, team (NYM), and projected career outcome probabilities: 90% chance of Contributor, 90% chance of Regular, and 53% chance of Star. Badges display #15 Overall and #2 NYM Prospect rankings. Left panel: relative hitting traits with descriptors. Development Speed 1.53 (very strong). Gap Power 1.49 (very strong). Discipline 0.93 (solidly above average). Lift 0.59 (above average). Home Run Power 0.27 (slightly above average). Contact 0.21 (slightly above average). Strikeout Avoidance 0.13 (a bit above average). Player comp listed as George Lombard Jr., 2025. Right panel: interpretation of the projected career outcomes. The distribution indicates that Williams is overwhelmingly likely to produce in the Contributor‑to‑Regular range during his prime seasons. The largest share of probability sits in the low‑to‑moderate WAR tiers, showing a high likelihood of becoming at least a dependable everyday MLB player. There is also a meaningful amount of probability extending into the upper‑WAR ranges, reflecting a substantial 53% chance of reaching Star‑level performance—much higher than typical for a prospect. However, the probabilities gradually thin out as WAR levels increase, indicating that while a star‑level ceiling is clearly in play, sustained high‑end production is less likely than more moderate but solid outcomes. A confidence meter runs along the bottom.”

Williams, who was our Mets #2 prospect and now Milwaukee's #2 (post-trade updates coming soon!), is one of our favorite players! He's a prime example of a sneaky hitting threat: he's got XBH power in spades, great lift rates, and has great BB ability. Also + SS or CF potential!

What a Data Driven Rankings System Makes of the New Baseball America Top 100 We explore what key similarities and differences in BA and Oyster rankings tell us about top prospects, scouting, and modeling

Check out our take on Baseball America's 2026 Top-100! We highlight some of our agreements and disagreements, and go deeper into how our model evaluates players. We also answer a burning question: Why is Konnor Griffin so low in our rankings?

The Rankings Audit: How Good Are Mainstream Prospect Rankings Really? We look back on Fangraphs, Baseball America, and MLB Pipeline rankings between 2017-2021 and discuss how they compare, what they do well, and what they miss

In the lead-up to tomorrow's article giving our takes on some of Baseball America's 2026 top 100, we wanted to showcase our prior work on the major prospect ranking outlets, what they do well, where they miss, and the strengths and weaknesses of each!

Vs RHP, the blue distribution with Robert Jr. is shifted to the right of the yellow distribution, indicating higher expected run scoring. Vertical dashed lines mark the means, with the lineup including Robert Jr. averaging about 5.41 runs per game compared to about 5.36 without him.

Vs LHP, the comparison shows a smaller rightward shift when Robert Jr. is included. The mean run expectancy increases slightly, from roughly 5.30 runs per game without Robert Jr. to about 5.32 with Robert Jr., indicating a modest offensive boost against left-handed pitching.

What impact will Robert Jr. have on the Mets? Despite being worse vs. RHP, Robert Jr. upgrades the lineup more vs. righties, as Tyrone Taylor has well-below avg. splits vs. RHP. Robert Jr. projects to be a below-average hitter overall, and the Mets will hope he can find his old form!

Graphic profile of Boston Red Sox prospect Mikey Romero. At the top is his headshot with his name, team (BOS), and probabilities showing a 91% chance of becoming a Contributor, 84% chance of a Regular, and 10% chance of a Star. The left panel shows relative hitting traits compared to league average: strong development speed, gap power, lift, and above-average home run power; below-average discipline and slightly below-average strikeout avoidance. The right panel displays a bar chart of career outcome probabilities by prime WAR per season, with most probability concentrated in contributor and regular outcomes and a smaller chance of star-level production.

This hot take Tuesday, we agree with the surprisingly high placement of Romero as the #5 3B per MLB Pipeline. We love his skillset; he has solid power and respectable contact with a high LD, high FB profile. We're low on his ceiling because of low BB, but IF with pop are rare!

Pay the Big Dawgs! Simulating the Impact of the Tucker and Bichette Signings The Oyster Simulator returns to assess the sluggers’ impacts on the Dodgers and Mets lineups

The Oyster Simulator takes on the biggest signings of this free agency period: Tucker to the Dodgers and Bichette to the Mets! While both moves make their squads better, the Tucker acquisition is especially valuable, as he both benefits and boosts the Dodgers' elite bats!

The gold curve shows the Dodgers without Kyle Tucker vs. RHP, centered at 5.66 runs per nine. The blue curve shows the lineup with Tucker, shifted sharply to the right and centered at 5.96. The dashed lines mark those means, and the separation between the two distributions is wider than in the LHP case.

The gold distribution shows the Dodgers without Kyle Tucker vs. LHP, centered around 5.50 runs per nine. The blue distribution shows the lineup with Tucker, shifted clearly to the right and centered at 5.71. The dashed lines mark those means, and the entire blue curve sits higher in the run environment.

Signing the top OF projects to have a big payoff for the Dodgers, who improve against both RHP and LHP. Adding .3 runs per game (with the ideal lineup) is a massive increase, even for a team as loaded as Los Angeles!

Overlooked Outfielders and a Catching Cornerstone: The Key AL Central Prospects to Watch in 2026 What to watch for and expect from players in each system entering pivotal seasons

The AL Central may be the most exciting division for prospect hounds, with top-end talent rivalling any division. In today's article, we dive into the guys who we will be eagerly following in 2026, from MLB talent to R-Ball standouts looking to make the leap!

Brendan Jones (yellow, overall #209 / NYY #6) vs. Dillon Lewis (red, overall #428 / NYY #14). The radar highlights a clear stylistic split. Lewis (red) owns the top-end raw power, standing out most in HR power, while Jones (yellow) separates with better swing decisions and batted-ball shape, showing sizable advantages in discipline and lift, along with smaller edges in dev speed, contact, and strikeout avoidance. Gap power is largely similar between the two. Those differences drive the projection gap. Jones’s more complete offensive profile supports a broader range of positive outcomes (11% Contributor, 11% Regular, 8% Star), while Lewis’s power-first skill set carries a narrower path to impact (6% Contributor, 4% Regular, 0% Star). Same system, but Jones offers the more stable risk-reward profile despite Lewis’s louder raw power.

Despite a pair of 120+ wRC+'s, we're low on both of the new Marlins. Why? Both are quite old for their levels (Jones 23 in AA, Lewis 22 in A+). The big knock on both guys is very high IFFB% (27.2% for Jones, 34.8% for Lewis). Both have potential, but must pass upper-level tests!