Andy Reisinger

The war on Iran likely brings a new oil price shock and windfall profits.

So, who stands to win?

Our research shows: Last time around (2022), the US reaped the largest fossil fuel profits of any country ($377bn). 50% went to the top 1%, only 1% to the bottom 50%. A🧵

no national prime minister could possibly be expected to anticipate that instability in the middle east could lead to an energy price shock that threatens our energy security

Silhouette of a praying mantis, seen from the other side of a veined leaf

The leaf is greener on the other side 📷

Seven metre swells possible as severe weather to hit Wellington Wellingtonians are being warned to stay off south coast beaches as severe southerly winds and heavy rain strike the region.

Here's a new storm-related climate change threat - Wellingtonians are being advised to stay away from seaspray whipped up by the strong winds because it will contain 💩 due to raw sewage release into the ocean. What an absolute disgrace #NZPol
www.rnz.co.nz/news/nationa...

In case anyone's wondering how Jeff Bezos feels about climate policy these days, the Washington Post editorial board just heartily endorsed Trump ripping up the EPA's "endangerment finding," which allows the federal government to regulate greenhouse gases as pollutants.

This woman is yelling "Why do you care about mass child sexual abuse? The market is up!" and showing her entire rear end to the world, and we need to force them into this corner as often as possible.

If I hadn’t already cancelled my subscription for the Post, this would have cemented the deal.
archive.ph/eoeiZ

Exceeding 1.5 °C requires rethinking accountability in climate policy A scientific foundation is required to establish nations’ responsibilities in a hotter ‘overshoot’ world.

How should climate science and policy respond to a potential exceedance of 1.5°C? We provide our perspective on this in a new @Nature comment 🔗 nature.com/articles/d41586-026-00247-y led by Gaurav Ganti with Sabine Fuss, @joerirogelj.bsky.social, @setupelz.bsky.social & Keywan Riahi 1/

How well can we quantify when 1.5 °C of global warming has been exceeded? Abstract. Parties to the 2015 Paris Agreement agreed to limit the long-term increase in global average temperature to well below 2 °C and pursue efforts to keep temperatures below 1.5 °C relative to p...

New discussion paper just dropped that’s taken shall we say a little work to get this far … essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es... please be kind. Not on an at all sensitive topic in the slightest.

Solidarity, particularly across race and class, is Kryptonite for authoritarian regimes. They can only thrive when their us v. them framing is adopted by society at large, and they join as active or passive collaborators with the regime. So the only response they have is to raise the cost of unity

Statement from Michael and Susan Pretti Parents of Alex Jeffrey Pretti “We are heartbroken but also very angry. Alex was a kindhearted soul who cared deeply for his family and friends and also the American veterans whom he cared for as an ICU nurse at the Minneapolis VA hospital. Alex wanted to make a difference in this world. Unfortunately, he will not be with us to see his impact. I do not throw around the ‘hero’ term lightly. However, his last thought and act was to protect a woman. The sickening lies told about our son by the administration are reprehensible and disgusting. Alex is clearly not holding a gun when attacked by Trump’s murdering and cowardly ICE thugs. He had his phone in his right hand and his empty left hand is raised above his head while trying to protect the woman ICE just pushed down, all while being pepper sprayed. Please get the truth out about our son. He was a good man. Thank you.

Kare 11 local news just read, in full, this statement from Michael and Susan Pretti, the parents of Alex Pretti.

"Please get the truth out about our son."

We have a new paper in Science today on how malicious AI swarms can threaten democracy.

AI systems can already coordinate autonomously, infiltrate communities, and fabricate social consensus.

www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

Led by @kunstjonas.bsky.social & @daniel-thilo.bsky.social!

One of the more absurd ideas.

People tried to appease Hitler by letting him annex various countries in exchange for European peace. Which didn't go great I understand.

The Trump administration has a Nazi problem | Mehdi Hasan Think I’m exaggerating? Consider the copious amounts of evidence

"So here’s a simple rule for Trump and his friends: if you don’t want to be called Nazis, stop hiring Nazis, quoting Nazis and posting Nazi imagery."

Society parried the ozone layer, acid rain, and Y2K back to back and instead of going "wow, parrying is badass" a lot of people went "society didn't even get hit so I guess there's no need to learn how to parry" and instantly took a thousand hits

Kia ora @metservice.com

Please stop using X. 🙏🏼
I’m pretty sure you don’t really want to be supporting such an entity anymore.

#nzpol

Temperature effect of emission of 1t of methane, and of removing 80t of carbon dioxide for 30 years. The net effect of both actions on temperature is about neutral for the first 10 years, the cooling up to 30 years, and then slight warming beyond 30 years.

"Assessing equivalence based on avoided economic damages suggests that about 87 temporary CO2 removals over a period of 30 years are needed to offset 1 t of methane." www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Could be thought of as an application of GWP100 but scaled to apply within the first 30 years only.

I cannot emphasize enough that the attempts to anthropomorphize an algorithm is a fundamental act of journalistic malpractice and an intentional act to shield the people responsible for this. It's fucking shameful.

<Taps sign>
www.sup.org/books/sociol...

The question is, given that we have an electorate that selected Trump yet again, can we in fact do better? If the answer is no, the future looks pretty bleak.

I'd like to see more effort on "How can we lead the people where we need to go" vs "What approach is inadequate enough to sell?"

2/3

Cabinet overrode health advice in decision to ban puberty blockers Health officials said there was 'no evidence base' about the likely impacts of the Government's decision to ban puberty blockers for transgender youth.

New from me: Health officials said there was ‘no evidence base’ about the likely impacts of the Government’s decision to ban puberty blockers for transgender youth.
newsroom.co.nz/2025/12/22/c...

a graphic showing the slower emissions reductions cause more greenhouse gas emissions over time

This isn't a debate about policy design or differing paths to the same goal

One is a plan to allow more emissions (and therefore, more harm / death), and one is a plan to *at least try* to reduce that harm.

The 'debate' is about whether we should let fossil fuels kill people, or try to stop that

Clear case for a capitol gains tax

India’s Desert State Reignites Coal-Fired Power Debate The competitive cost of batteries is making clean energy a viable alternative to coal in parts of the country.

The Indian state of Rajasthan produces more solar than any other. It has rejected a 3.2 GW coal power plant, because the bids to build it were more expensive than bundling renewables with batteries.

🎁🔗 www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...

To be clear: the specific intention behind the state naming and singling out journalists it doesn't like is to put those journalists in danger.

Reranking partisan animosity in algorithmic social media feeds alters affective polarization Today, social media platforms hold the sole power to study the effects of feed-ranking algorithms. We developed a platform-independent method that reranks participants’ feeds in real time and used thi...

Social media feeds can be tuned to increase or decrease political polarisation.

Nice demonstration by @tiziano.bsky.social and colleagues

Y’know, believing there’s a kind of racism that isn’t hurtful or insulting is itself quite revealing.

Did you ever racially abuse fellow pupils?

It was years ago.

Did you ever racially abuse fellow pupils?

Not in a hurtful way.

Did you ever racially abuse fellow pupils?

Not with intent.

Did you ever racially abuse fellow pupils?

Not genuine abuse.

😮🫣😬😱 ~AA

The Next COP Needs to Confront ‘Overshoot’ The Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius is now all but impossible. Limiting — and eventually reversing — the damage will take some thought.

UN sec. gen. Antonio Guterres got it wrong when he said "Scientists tell us that a temporary overshoot above 1.5 degrees is now inevitable." Surpassing 1.5 may be inevitable, but the "temporary" part, not so much. My Q&A w/ an expert on why COPs need to confront this. heatmap.news/climate/cop-...

Overshoot: Rückkehr zu 1,5 °C erfordert netto-negative Emissionsziele Die globale Erwärmung wird voraussichtlich bis Anfang der 2030er Jahre über 1,5&nbsp;°C steigen. Eine Rückkehr zu 1,5&nbsp;°C vor Ende des 21....

Die globale Erwärmung könnte bis Anfang der 2030er Jahre auf über 1,5 °C steigen. Die Begrenzung von Ausmaß & Dauer des »Overshoot« stellt die Klimapolitik vor neue Herausforderungen, so Oliver Geden @swp-europe.bsky.social & @andyreisinger.bsky.social in: www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...