Judd Legum

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The casino-fication of war On February 28, the United States and Israel began major combat operations in Iran.

8. More details on how this is all playing out in today's Popular Information

7. War-related prediction markets are not just an opportunity for insider trading. A letter from six Democratic Senators sent to the CFTC last month argued that these markets create “incentives to incite violence, foment geopolitical conflicts, and disclose classified information.”

6. Kalshi offered a market on “Ali Khamenei out as Supreme Leader?” by various dates.

The CFTC allows prediction markets to self-certify each market, and Kalshi certified that this market was not related to war.

The casino-fication of war On February 28, the United States and Israel began major combat operations in Iran.

5. Polymarket offers these bets via an off-shore platform because the CFTC any market “that involves, relates to, or references terrorism, assassination, [or] war.”

But Kalshi, which is fully regulated by the CFTC, has found workarounds.

4. On its website, Polymarket describes allowing wagers on acts of war as a public service, claiming it provides vital information to “those directly affected by the attacks.”

3. Overall, “$529 million was traded on contracts tied to the timing of the strikes” on Polymarket.

Moving forward, Polymarket is offering dozens of markets on war-related developments.

2. In the hours before the strike, six newly-created accounts on the prediction market Polymarket raked in nearly $1 million by betting that the U.S. would strike Iran by February 28.

Many suspect these were insiders. The White House says no one in "Trump's orbit" placed bets.

The casino-fication of war On February 28, the United States and Israel began major combat operations in Iran.

1. The Iran War has already claimed the lives of 6 U.S. soldiers, hundreds of Iranians, and dozens of people in neighboring countries.

For others, it's been a money-making opportunity.

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The money behind the new Iran War In private calls over the last several weeks, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman urged President Trump to attack Iran.

7. More on the money behind the new Iran War in today's Popular Information

6. The new Iran War also comes weeks after PIF financed a $7 billion development deal in Saudi Arabia with the Trump Organization.

The Trump-branded hotel and golf course is part of Diriyah, a $63 billion development funded entirely by PIF.

5. The UAE is another backer of Kushner, investing about $200 million with his firm.

Days before the inauguration, the UAE purchased 49% of World Liberty Financial, a crypto company owned by Trump and Witkoff

The purchase netted the Trump family $187 million and the Witkoff family $31 million

4. After raising billions for the Saudis and other foreign governments, Kushner dismissed concerns about conflicts of interest, pledging he would not be involved in Trump’s second term.

Once Trump took office, he abandoned that pledge and said his financial conflicts made him more effective.

3. In 2021, Saudi Arabia invested $2 billion in Kushner's private equity fund and has paid him $125 million+ in management fees.

The Saudis also partnered with Kushner to purchase video game maker EA, the largest leveraged buyout in history.

2. Despite the glaring conflicts-of-interest, Trump installed Kushner as a top negotiator with Iranian officials.

Kushner and Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff participated in a mediation session with their Iranian counterparts on Thursday, billed as a last-ditch effort to avoid war.

The money behind the new Iran War In private calls over the last several weeks, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman urged President Trump to attack Iran.

1. According to multiple reports both Saudi Arabia and the UAE lobbied Trump to attack Iran.

Both countries have increased their influence with Trump by investing billions in projects that personally enrich Trump and his son-in-law, Jared Kushner.

“If Kamala wins, only death and destruction await because she is the candidate of endless wars. I am the candidate of peace. I am peace.” - Trump, 11/1/24

“I’m not going to start a war, I’m going to stop wars.” - Trump, 11/5/24

Deeply conflicted, Kushner represents the U.S. in high-stakes negotiations with Iran Today in Geneva, Switzerland, Jared Kushner will represent the United States in meetings with Iranian officials — a last-ditch effort to avoid war.

Just a reminder: instead of an actual diplomat, we sent Trump’s deeply compromised son-in-law as the lead negotiator to avert war with Iran.

popular.info/p/deeply-con...

In a new filing with the SEC, Trump Media and Technology Group, the parent company of Truth Social, revealed that in 2025 it lost $712 million and brought in just $3.7 million in revenue.

"We did not protect President Trump" -- Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche, 1/30/26

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Deeply conflicted, Kushner represents the U.S. in high-stakes negotiations with Iran Today in Geneva, Switzerland, Jared Kushner will represent the United States in meetings with Iranian officials — a last-ditch effort to avoid war.

6. The Trump administration tries to claim Kushner is just a "volunteer." But that argument does not pass legal muster. I break it down in today's Popular Information.

5. This is exactly why it is in the Constitution that you cannot be a US government official and simultaneously be paid by foreign governments.

Deeply conflicted, Kushner represents the U.S. in high-stakes negotiations with Iran Today in Geneva, Switzerland, Jared Kushner will represent the United States in meetings with Iranian officials — a last-ditch effort to avoid war.

4. Kushner's top clients, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are large oil producers. They work with OPEC to keep oil prices high.

If Iranian oil hit the market, it could drive oil prices lower and hurt their economic prospects.

3. The US wants Iran to agree to restrictions on its nuclear program.

In return, Iran will ask for sanctions relief. The most valuable sanctions relief the US can offer is for Iranian oil.

2. Kushner is being paid tens of millions of dollars annually by foreign governments, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

This is a huge problem for these negotiations.

Deeply conflicted, Kushner represents the U.S. in high-stakes negotiations with Iran Today in Geneva, Switzerland, Jared Kushner will represent the United States in meetings with Iranian officials — a last-ditch effort to avoid war.

1. Today, Jared Kushner is in Geneva representing the US in high-stakes negotiations with Iran.

It is a last ditch effort to avoid war.

But Kushner has debilitating financial conflicts that makes a deal less likely.