@ukpollingmaps.bsky.social
Using the latest polling data to predict the next General Election :-)
My final prediction for today's by-election. Still a slight Labour hold, but could go either way
01.05.2025 14:36 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0Election Prediction
Hung Parliament, Labour largest party
Change 19/03/25 to 01/05/25
Reform UK lead of 2.5% (+0.1)
Ref UK 26.4% (-0.4)
Con 23.9% (/)
Lab 22.9% (-1.5)
LD 15.1% (+0.6)
GRN 9.4% (+1.1)
public.flourish.studio/visualisatio...
^^^^ Interactive seat map :-)
#Politics
#UK
With the upcoming Runcorn & Helsby by-election here's my current prediction.
Recent polling in the constituency has shown a small lead for Reform, although I believe Labour are still on track to edge it.
However, things could change and their lead is still well within the margin of error (1.9%)
Election Prediction
Hung Parliament, Labour largest party
Change 04/03/25 to 19/03/25
Reform UK lead of 2.4% (-1.1)
Ref UK 26.8% (-0.8)
Lab 24.4% (+0.2)
Con 23.9% (+0.4)
LD 14.5% (+0.9)
GRN 8.3% (-0.5)
public.flourish.studio/visualisatio...
^^^^ Interactive seat map :-)
#Politics
#UK
Election Prediction
Hung Parliament, Labour largest party
Change 16/01/25 to 04/03/25
Reform UK lead of 3.5%
Ref UK 27.6% (+4.6)
Lab 24.2% (-1.7)
Con 23.5% (-3.5)
LD 13.6% (/)
GRN 8.8% (+0.5)
public.flourish.studio/visualisatio...
^^^^ Interactive seat map :-)
Election Prediction
Hung Parliament, Labour largest party
Change 30/12/24 to 16/01/25
Conservative lead of 1.1% (-1.9)
Con 27.0% (-1.0)
Lab 25.9% (+0.9)
Ref UK 23.0% (+0.1)
LD 13.6% (-0.3)
GRN 8.3% (+0.2)
public.flourish.studio/visualisatio...
^^^^ Interactive seat map :-)
#Politics
#UK
Election Prediction
Hung Parliament, Labour largest party
Change 26/11/24 to 30/12/24
Conservative lead of 3% (+2)
Con 28.0% (-0.9)
Lab 25.0% (-2.9)
Ref UK 22.9% (+3.5)
LD 13.9% (+0.3)
GRN 8.1% (+0.2)
public.flourish.studio/visualisatio...
^^^^ Interactive seat map :-)
#Politics #UK
Election Prediction
Hung Parliament, Labour largest party
Change Election - 26/11/24
Conservative lead of 1% (+11)
Con 28.9% (+5.2)
Lab 27.9% (-5.8)
Ref UK 19.4% (+5.1)
LD 13.6% (+1.4)
GRN 7.9% (+1.1)
public.flourish.studio/visualisatio...
^^^^ Interactive seat map :-)
#Politics #UK
