Geopolitical Futures

In Europe, a Blackout Brings Hard Truths to Light - Geopolitical Futures On April 28, millions across Spain, Portugal and parts of France were plunged into darkness after a massive, unexpected power outage. Metro systems

Even before a massive April 28 blackout, Spain and Portugal were navigating difficult discussions about their place within the EU’s evolving energy strategy. The event will likely lead to debates over the balance between energy autonomy and European integration. ow.ly/VOiB50VJWeP

US Assault on Houthis Brings No Relief for Yemen - Geopolitical Futures With U.S. airstrikes against the Houthi rebels intensifying, Yemen is at a critical juncture. Last month, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened that

With U.S. airstrikes against the Houthi rebels intensifying, Yemen is at a critical juncture. Indicators suggest that a large-scale ground operation in Houthi-controlled areas is inevitable. Hilal Khashan has this analysis for GPF subscribers: ow.ly/zzME50VHfPM

The EU Changes Course in Africa - Geopolitical Futures Since the end of the colonial era, Europe has spent much of its time in Africa on promoting shared values and development – often with little regard for a

The EU Changes Course in Africa
Since the end of the colonial era, Europe has spent much of its time in Africa on promoting shared values and development. But it can no longer afford to fund nation-building initiatives with no promise of return. ow.ly/ILsN50VFHkP

Adam Smith, Economics, Finance and Geopolitics - Geopolitical Futures Adam Smith defined how we think about free markets. His guiding principle was, famously, the invisible hand – a mystical force or the hand of God, but the

Adam Smith defined how we think about free markets. His guiding principle was the invisible hand – the idea that the pursuit of individual interests in economic life would inevitably produce an optimized and predictable economy. - George Friedman geopoliticalfutures.com/adam-smith-e...

US-Iran Talks Set to Begin

YouTube video by Geopolitical Futures America's Tariffs and Today's Global System | ClubGPF Preview with George Friedman

America's Tariffs and Today's Global System
The U.S. is measuring its strength - GPF's George Friedman in a new video: www.youtube.com/watch?v=l_Fg...

🌐 Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed that Ukraine be placed under temporary U.N.-led management in order to hold elections that could lead to peace talks. He suggested negotiations with the current administration would be fruitless since any outcome could be annulled by a new president.

The Risks of the United States’ Latin America Policy

Washington’s priorities for Latin America – migration, China and tariffs – are meant to support, or are an extension of, the government’s broader America First vision. But the short-term benefits could create long-term problems. ow.ly/VVNJ50VpSmP

We've Been Here Before: George Friedman on U.S. Cycles - Geopolitical Futures Depending on which side of the line you're on, it's possible we're seeing the start of America’s terminal decline, or perhaps its regeneration. While the US has been busily announcing the end of the p...

Depending on which side of the line you're on, it's possible we're seeing the start of America’s terminal decline, or perhaps its regeneration. As GPF's George Friedman explains, we've been here before: geopoliticalfutures.com/weve-been-he...

YouTube video by Mauldin Economics Fentanyl & Cartels: China’s Deadly Drug War with the US | Allison Fedirka

From the archives: GPF's Director of Analysis Allison Fedirka breaks down US-China trade, the fentanyl epidemic and how it all impacts US-Latin America relations (something we see playing out today), via Mauldin Economics www.youtube.com/watch?v=IECU...

In today's Memo: Drone Strikes in Russia
The assault on Russia came ahead of peace talks involving the U.S. and Ukraine.

YouTube video by Geopolitical Futures George Friedman: Why Putin Has Lost the War in Ukraine

GPF's George Friedman on Vladimir Putin: "What he needed to do, and what he could do were two different things." www.youtube.com/watch?v=ksfn...

George Friedman: Why Putin Has Lost the War in Ukraine Podcast Episode · Talking Geopolitics · 03/05/2025 · 35m

After Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s Oval Office bust up, you might think the war in Ukraine is going rather well for Vladimir Putin. But, according to Geopolitical Futures Chairman George Friedman, the Russian president has already lost the war. #podcast podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/g...

Resurrection of the Keystone XL Pipeline - Geopolitical Futures (click to enlarge) U.S. President Donald Trump has announced plans to revive the Keystone XL Pipeline, reversing the Biden administration’s efforts to

Donald Trump plans to revive the Keystone XL Pipeline, reversing the Biden administration’s efforts to cancel it. The project, which would transport oil from Alberta’s oil sands to Texas at an estimated cost of $8B, has faced fierce opposition for many years. geopoliticalfutures.com/resurrection...

YouTube video by Geopolitical Futures George Friedman: Trump, Putin and Changing Global Realities

"When Russia invaded Ukraine and failed, the world changed." - GPF Chairman George Friedman on Trump, Putin and Changing Global Realities www.youtube.com/watch?v=-knL...

Japan’s Rice Crisis - Geopolitical Futures Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries recently announced it would release 210,000 tons of rice from its stockpile of 1.1 million tons to

Japan's current rice crisis has become a politically urgent issue for Tokyo. Not since the Fukushima nuclear disaster nearly 14 years ago have rice prices been this high. And there is evidence to suggest they will be harder to bring down this time around. - Victoria Herczegh ow.ly/8xRu50V7RLM

George Friedman: Trump is Just Reacting to Changing Global Realities - Geopolitical Futures One month into Donald Trump’s second term, even those who closely followed his first time in office have struggled to keep up. Foreign policy shifts alone include tariffs, attacks on allies, and a pro...

George Friedman: Trump is Just Reacting to Changing Global Realities
What is the US trying to achieve in its negotiations with Russia? And is this all just the new norm for a world without an anchor? Listen to GPF Chairman George Friedman on our new podcast episode: ow.ly/6aYI50V7Ggn

YouTube video by Mauldin Economics Trump's Master Plan: How Russia Lost Control | George Friedman

Donald Trump is trying to disrupt America because it’s unsustainable. He’s now trying to disrupt the world, because it’s unsustainable. - GPF Chairman George Friedman via Mauldin Economics Global Macro Update with Ed D'Agostino www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-ok...

YouTube video by The Red Line The Feasibility of an EU Army - The Red Line Podcast

To maintain its position as a world power should Europe double down on its continental experiment & form a united European army, or do the scars of history still prevent Europe from standing defensively on its own? George Friedman's 2022 interview w/ @theredline.bsky.social youtu.be/YBWAmpZY8Fk?...

An Attempt at Explaining Trump’s Foreign Policy - Geopolitical Futures U.S. President Donald Trump’s second term has begun with a clear intent to reshape U.S. foreign policy. His aggressive use of tariffs against China – and

U.S. President Donald Trump’s second term has begun with a clear intent to reshape U.S. foreign policy. Newer projects, such as the annexation of Greenland and reclamation of the Panama Canal, may reveal a broader strategic vision, one that could reshape trans-Atlantic relations. ow.ly/xz4i50UXTqp

Subscribe to Geopolitical Futures today and you'll gain access to our full 2025 Forecast, available now: ow.ly/xM5m50UXcKK

Aluminum Prices and US Tariffs - Geopolitical Futures (click to enlarge) U.S. tariffs on Canada and Mexico, if implemented, will likely disrupt the global aluminum market. A similar pattern emerged during

#Aluminum prices track global economic trends, given the metal’s critical role in automotive, aerospace, construction and packaging industries. Any #trade policy adjustment that tightens supply chains could drive up costs for businesses and consumers. #tariffs ow.ly/zznX50UWXgw

🌐 French President Emmanuel Macron invited Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa to visit France in the coming weeks. During a call on Tuesday, they also discussed Syria’s transition process, which Macron stressed should include integration of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces.

YouTube video by Geopolitical Futures George Friedman: World Without an Anchor

"It's an unsettling event that's taken place." - GPF Chairman George Friedman from our most recent ClubGPF live discussion. Watch the full clip: www.youtube.com/watch?v=a4Kv...

Rwanda's Role in DRC Conflict - Geopolitical Futures (click to enlarge) The conflict in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo escalated last weekend when the M23 rebel group advanced into North Kivu,

The conflict in eastern DRC escalated when the M23 rebel group seized the regional capital, Goma. Rwanda, long accused of covertly backing M23, deployed thousands of troops to support the offensive.

Rwanda’s involvement stems from two motivations: economic gain & border security. ow.ly/boOY50USnY4

Global growth is stabilizing as inflation nears target levels. Global trade recovered in 2024, driven largely by steady growth in the goods trade in emerging economies. Overall growth remains weak, however, hindering sustainable economic development.

New Hope for Lebanon - Geopolitical Futures There’s a broad sense of optimism in Lebanon that the election of Joseph Aoun as president earlier this month could bring genuine change after decades of

Could the election of Joseph Aoun as the new president of Lebanon bring genuine change after decades of rampant corruption and government mismanagement?

Many see Aoun’s election as a bloodless coup that could overthrow the corrupt political and business establishment. ow.ly/aFty50UPEGL

🌐 A Russian delegation that includes the country’s deputy foreign minister and special envoy to Syria arrived in Damascus, the first official visit by Russian officials to the country since former leader Bashar Assad’s ouster in December.

2025 Forecast: China
What's ahead this year for the Chinese economy, its military, trade with the U.S., and for Chinese President President Xi Jinping? Subscribers sign in for our 2025 Forecast for China, available now: ow.ly/SaNY50UNPw8

2025 Outlook for the Global Economy - Geopolitical Futures (click to enlarge) The World Bank has released its 2025 global growth forecast. The key takeaway is that global growth is stabilizing as inflation nears

The World Bank has released its 2025 global growth forecast. Growth is stabilizing, but at a lower level. Details in this week's free graphic: ow.ly/nOKJ50UNlvR