United States Studies Centre

Could this be the 'ultimate constraint' for Trump amid war with Iran?

As the Iran conflict rattles global markets, USSC's Jared Mondschein argues Trump isn’t always linear: “He often comes to a more negotiated outcome or settlement.”

Questions remain as to whether markets will force that shift again.

Following the Supreme Court’s ruling on IEEPA tariffs, the shift to Section 122 introduces a different constraint: tariffs can no longer be country-specific.

Sahara Hoff explains the impact.
https://www.ussc.edu.au/by-the-numbers-how-do-the-new-section-122-tariffs-compare-to-ieepa-tariffs

Why Bill and Hillary Clinton are testifying about Epstein - ABC listen They tried to stop it happening, but Bill and Hillary Clinton had no choice in the end but to testify or face jail time.   The political power couple is being hauled before a US congressional investi...

On why the Clintons agreed to testify before the committee examining links to Epstein, @sydney.edu.au+@USSC's Associate Professor David Smith explains:

“Once the committee voted to hold them in contempt of Congress… they potentially could have been facing jail time.”

Clock ticking as Mid-East embassy staff leave US air strikes on Iran could come within days, experts have warned, as American and Iranian negotiators prepared for last-ditch talks amid a massive US military build-up in the region.

The clock is ticking on a US attack on Iran, says USSC's Dr Michael Green.

But he says President Trump will continue to weigh the risks of a military intervention, including the political risks.

U.K., Australia and Others Worse Off Under Trump’s New Tariffs

Strong economic ties between Australia and the US were viewed as important factor for national security, says USSC's Jared Mondschein.

Rewriting the trade rules, he adds, “doesn’t help the US-Australia alliance.”

'Not an empty threat:' Trump builds military presence as US and Iran's views on talks differ Iran and the United States are set to hold talks in Geneva on Thursday, but an expert says it's hard to predict the outcome.

Iran’s "military and geopolitical situation is quite weak,” says USSC CEO, Dr Michael Green.

At the same time, “the US can’t keep that fleet out there forever.” These constraints may shape this week’s talks and push both sides toward a deal.

What is MAHASAGAR — and why does it matter beyond the Indian Ocean?

Rushali Saha explores India’s emerging maritime vision and the role partners could play in turning it into reality.

Read → https://www.ussc.edu.au/mahasagar-indias-global-maritime-vision-explained-and-where-does-australia-fit

Spies in the Treasury: New unit to inject intelligence into policy A new branch featuring security agency staff will now help shape Australia’s economic decisions to counter global threats.

Australia is moving to embed intelligence into economic policy.

But as USSC’s Hayley Channer warns, after a “tumultuous year” of tariffs, critical minerals and AI competition, we must shift from risk awareness to operational readiness.

YouTube video by ABC News (Australia) Western allies and the Pope decline Donald Trump’s 'Board of Peace' | ABC NEWS

What powers would President Trump’s proposed Board of Peace have to shape outcomes in Gaza?

Jared Mondschein explains → https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L9vfA1SpbWk

'Nobody knows how it ends': Why Australians can't turn away from US politics Huge crowds have flocked to live shows for the popular and influential Pod Save America podcast, suggesting Australia's obsession with US politics isn't going away anytime soon.

Australians see the US “moving in a different direction,” but the alliance still holds.

In USSC polling, just 17% of Australians say they want to abandon the US Alliance, says Jared Mondschein.

Japan’s election result signals more than leadership change.

Sanae Takaichi is doubling down on the US alliance — cementing a strategic path first set by Shinzo Abe, explains USSC's Dr Michael Green.

Read → https://www.ussc.edu.au/sanae-takaichi-landslide-a-turning-point-for-indo-pacific-allies

Framed as a break from the “grandiose strategies of the past,” the 2026 National Defense Strategy prioritises the Western Hemisphere — but how far does it really shift US policy on China and alliances?

Read the explainer → https://www.ussc.edu.au/what-is-in-trumps-new-national-defense-strategy

“This is not a favour the US does for other countries.”

Dr Michael J. Green on the deeper logic behind alliances — and why they last.

Listen → https://www.ussc.edu.au/podcasts/ussc-briefing-room/ussc-briefing-room-mike-green-and-lavina-lee-on-iran-venezuela-greenland-and-carney-s-speech

Japan’s election result is a geopolitical earthquake and a ‘very big deal’ for Australia The Japanese people have just given Sanae Takaichi a super-majority in the parliament. It signals a period of great change ahead for one of Australia’s key allies.

“Takaichi doesn’t think Japan is a middle power, she thinks it’s a great power.”

Dr Michael Green on why Japan’s election result matters. A more assertive Japan will shape alliance politics in the Indo-Pacific — including how Australia positions itself.

Report says Australia's focus on China has 'eroded' Taiwan's trust Experts say Australia needs to do more to grow its relationship with Taiwan as China works to diplomatically isolate Taipei in the region.

Australia should play its part in helping bolster Taiwan's security, says Professor Peter Dean following release of the USSC's newest report.

"This is in the interests of Taiwan, strengthening their democracy, strengthening their ability to withstand shocks."

Australia’s Taiwan policy has long been cautious — but the strategic environment is changing.

Our new report assesses how Canberra can recalibrate Taiwan engagement while preserving stability. Read → https://www.ussc.edu.au/australia-taiwan-relations-policy-options-and-priorities-for-engagement

Australian universities perform over a third of national R&D — yet their AUKUS Pillar II contribution has been “modest”.

Why? Read → https://www.ussc.edu.au/australias-innovation-science-and-technology-environment-providing-a-rationale-for-universities-contributions-to-aukus-advanced-capabilities

Tariffs, critical minerals and AI are reshaping the global economic order.

We brought together expert perspectives on what this means for Australia — and the policy choices ahead. Read: https://www.ussc.edu.au/australias-economic-security-outlook-trends-and-possible-responses-for-2026

The Indian Ocean is more contested — and more interconnected — than ever.

In our latest report, Rushali Saha examines how India and Australia can work together more effectively in South Asia. Read: https://www.ussc.edu.au/securing-the-indian-ocean-elevating-the-india-australia-maritime-partnership

Congratulations to Secretary of the Department of Defence and close partner of the USSC, Greg Moriarty, on his nomination to serve as Australia’s next Ambassador to the United States.

He is an excellent choice and we look forward to continuing to work closely with him.

YouTube video by ABC News (Australia) Trump, seeking damage control, weighs less aggressive approach in Minneapolis | The World | ABC NEWS

How are recent events involving ICE shifting American public opinion on immigration?

"58% of Americans, according to one Reuters poll, said that the ICE crackdown has gone too far," says USSC's Jared Mondschein. Watch:

Alliance Handbook Series

As ANZUS turns 75 @usstudiescentre.bsky.social & @ycaps.bsky.social are proud to release the “Alliance Handbook Series”—volumes containing the core documents that underpin key security relationships between Australia, Japan and the United States.

https://www.ussc.edu.au/alliance-handbook-series

Greg Moriarty’s “defence and security experience will be very useful given that the alliance is so central to the relationship between the two countries," says USSC Chairman Arthur Sinodinos. Read:

Defence secretary Greg Moriarty to replace Kevin Rudd as US ambassador Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has opted for an experienced public servant to manage the country’s relationship with the Trump administration.

“The next phase [of the alliance] is, essentially, delivery.”

USSC’s John Kunkel says incoming US ambassador Greg Moriarty is a professional with deep AUKUS credentials — and that the Trump administration will expect allies to do more, not just talk shared values. Read:

YouTube video by Sky News Australia ‘NATO at risk’: Trump throwing ‘tension’ at Europe relationship

On Greenland, "he [Trump] likes to go for a maximalist position, and then a negotiated outcome," says USSC's Jared Mondschein.

"The question is, what is that negotiated outcome? I don't think this administration has spelled that out very well."

Watch:

Missiles and multipolarity: Can an Indo-Pacific coalition defeat China’s missile overmatch? As China’s missile advantage grows, we explore how coalition-based air and missile defence could act as a force multiplier for Indo-Pacific deterrence.

Missile defence in the Indo-Pacific isn’t just a technology problem — it’s a coordination problem.

We explore when coalition air and missile defence helps, where political limits remain, and what’s realistic in the near term. Read:

Congress’ power has been diminishing for years, leaving Trump to act with impunity Trump has spent the first year of his second term pushing the limits of presidential power. He’s the latest in a long line of leaders who try to bypass Congress.

Is President Trump governing with unprecedented power — or is he inheriting a system already tilted toward the presidency?

Samuel Garrett traces the long-term decline of Congress and explains how executive power expanded across both parties.

AUKUS Pillar II is making progress — but its growth stage demands focus.

Sophie Mayo maps practical options to deliver on priorities, focusing on high-impact, reduced-effort pathways. Read: https://www.ussc.edu.au/a-menu-of-ai-and-autonomy-options-for-aukus-pillar-ii

Next US ambassador will have 'no simple task' Former Labor ministers are emerging as the frontrunners to replace Kevin Rudd as Australia's ambassador to the US after he chose to retire a year early.

With Kevin Rudd stepping down as Ambassador to the US, USSC’s Jared Mondschein says the next envoy must be "willing to work across a wide array of topics and with a wide array of folks," to advance Australia’s interests.

Read:

“Intelligent everything”: China’s policy to supercharge AI adoption

China’s “AI Plus” plan is a decade-long push to hardwire AI into its entire economy and society.

Tim Coghlan breaks down what it reveals about Beijing’s ambitions, domestically and globally.

Read: https://www.ussc.edu.au/intelligent-everything-china-s-policy-to-supercharge-ai-adoption