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Peter Brent

@peterbrent.bsky.social

Elections, electoral behaviour, electoral admin and Related Matters. Based on a true story.

471 Followers  |  38 Following  |  194 Posts  |  Joined: 21.10.2024  |  1.6029

Latest posts by peterbrent.bsky.social on Bluesky

Correct.

26.07.2025 23:56 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

You are assuming a particular purpose. If otoh it was to prolong Bibi’s premiership and entice Trump to bring America into a Middle East hot war, well those things might happen

20.06.2025 09:00 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0

Watch the numbers change around if they do get involved. (Not just an American thing.)

18.06.2025 14:21 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Can you point out where it is stated that was the reason?

07.06.2025 12:05 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

That was stale, mate.

07.06.2025 03:46 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Young US Americans now spend much more time alone than they did fifteen years ago. I'd expect this to be part of the explanation as to why we've seen a sharp increase in depression and poor mental health. Source: buff.ly/YR0rR24

01.06.2025 07:26 β€” πŸ‘ 25    πŸ” 8    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0
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Blimey, the results overall are pretty stunning.

30.05.2025 07:20 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

A not-so- crap Senate for the govt as last time, but still limiting.
They can get a majority with Greens or Coalition, that’s it.

30.05.2025 05:14 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

7 v 8 candidates matters because someone who follows Senate instructions, about numbering 6, will have formal vote if there are 7 candidates, but not if there are 8.
Pretty stark numbers in the table.
(Have assumed, not necessarily correctly, that all AEC polling place ids apply between years.)

30.05.2025 02:24 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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So, like, I took leafoutof @benraue.com's book, checking out relationship b/w change in no. of candidates& change in informal vote, but splitting seats into all variety of being part of one seat in 2022 & another in 2025.
Subset: changes from 7 cands to 8, & vice versa.

www.tallyroom.com.au/60644

30.05.2025 02:21 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

I think it's close to 100% Senate confusion.

30.05.2025 00:47 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

@benraue.com Is it still the case that polling place ids do not reliably mean the same actual polling place across different (recent) years?

30.05.2025 00:23 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

It's always easy to blame this on incompetence, one person failing to do their job, or people's stupidity, and it definitely sounds like a big stuff-up by the local AEC workers, but we need to acknowledge that having such strict formality rules makes this stuff much more of a problem.

30.05.2025 00:11 β€” πŸ‘ 17    πŸ” 3    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0

Very poor show.

30.05.2025 00:10 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Anti-preferencers still being seen whinging about Labor getting 62.7% of seats off 34.6% of primary votes when under the system they support UK Labour 2024 got 63.2% of seats off 33.7% of votes.

29.05.2025 06:57 β€” πŸ‘ 113    πŸ” 21    πŸ’¬ 14    πŸ“Œ 1

Now you are justifying taxing those unrealised gains (as it’s really tax and estate planning) which is fair enough.

28.05.2025 03:17 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

It’s not β€œEARNINGS only”, it’s also on-paper capital gains, which is what so much of the fuss is about! (I’m not against it.)

28.05.2025 02:10 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

I shall take that with pinches of salt, as Trump impacted those favourabilities.

27.05.2025 04:38 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Ah. And what do you reckon about Berowra special hospital team 1's very high informal in 2025 with robust 250 turnout? πŸ€”

27.05.2025 03:34 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

The candidate numbers 2022 v 2025 is particularly terrific, but maybe you don't need to add seat parts together (eg to get 7.8 for 2022 Bradfield); instead each portion (with, say, >2000 voters) separately. So for Bradfield you would have 2 data points. Would be statistically stronger innit?

27.05.2025 03:25 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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@benraue.com It is highly excellent, but what about Berowra special hospital, a standout across 2004-2025 with its meaningfully large turnout?

27.05.2025 03:18 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
https://insidestory.org.au/trump-goes-missing/

Me on the orange, bloated election ingredient that dare not speak its name.
t.co/IyU125q1SX

27.05.2025 02:59 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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Trump: "I'm not happy with what Putin is doing. He's killing a lot of people and I don't know what the hell happened to Putin. I've known him a long time ... we're in the middle of talking and he's shooting rockets into Kyiv and other cities. I don't like it at all. I'm surprised."

25.05.2025 22:20 β€” πŸ‘ 2476    πŸ” 443    πŸ’¬ 1036    πŸ“Œ 512
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All federal elections 1910 (2pty system) to 2025* in decreasing order of winner % of HoR seats.

1975 a much bigger win than 2025, but similar % of seats for losing side. No crossbench back then.

* 2025 counting not final.
(Some incl in party totals early last century arguable)

25.05.2025 23:31 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Kapterian to the live count lead

23.05.2025 06:52 β€” πŸ‘ 21    πŸ” 7    πŸ’¬ 3    πŸ“Œ 3

tbh Ming would be rather unsettled by some of the names on the ballot of his namesake.

22.05.2025 05:29 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Oh right, I stand corrected. That’s pretty trivial.

22.05.2025 05:00 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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Europe's Capital Cities ranked by size (area that is).

21.05.2025 22:27 β€” πŸ‘ 32    πŸ” 9    πŸ’¬ 7    πŸ“Œ 1

Nuclear, yes, one of four policy demands.

22.05.2025 02:07 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

It’s pretty simple. The blurb mentions Westminster and 2party system, and western democracies, most of which don’t have Westminster arrangements.

22.05.2025 01:43 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

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