Correct.
26.07.2025 23:56 β π 1 π 1 π¬ 0 π 0@peterbrent.bsky.social
Elections, electoral behaviour, electoral admin and Related Matters. Based on a true story.
Correct.
26.07.2025 23:56 β π 1 π 1 π¬ 0 π 0You are assuming a particular purpose. If otoh it was to prolong Bibiβs premiership and entice Trump to bring America into a Middle East hot war, well those things might happen
20.06.2025 09:00 β π 2 π 0 π¬ 2 π 0Watch the numbers change around if they do get involved. (Not just an American thing.)
18.06.2025 14:21 β π 3 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0Can you point out where it is stated that was the reason?
07.06.2025 12:05 β π 0 π 0 π¬ 1 π 0That was stale, mate.
07.06.2025 03:46 β π 3 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0Young US Americans now spend much more time alone than they did fifteen years ago. I'd expect this to be part of the explanation as to why we've seen a sharp increase in depression and poor mental health. Source: buff.ly/YR0rR24
01.06.2025 07:26 β π 25 π 8 π¬ 2 π 0Blimey, the results overall are pretty stunning.
30.05.2025 07:20 β π 0 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0A not-so- crap Senate for the govt as last time, but still limiting.
They can get a majority with Greens or Coalition, thatβs it.
7 v 8 candidates matters because someone who follows Senate instructions, about numbering 6, will have formal vote if there are 7 candidates, but not if there are 8.
Pretty stark numbers in the table.
(Have assumed, not necessarily correctly, that all AEC polling place ids apply between years.)
So, like, I took leafoutof @benraue.com's book, checking out relationship b/w change in no. of candidates& change in informal vote, but splitting seats into all variety of being part of one seat in 2022 & another in 2025.
Subset: changes from 7 cands to 8, & vice versa.
www.tallyroom.com.au/60644
I think it's close to 100% Senate confusion.
30.05.2025 00:47 β π 1 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0@benraue.com Is it still the case that polling place ids do not reliably mean the same actual polling place across different (recent) years?
30.05.2025 00:23 β π 0 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0It's always easy to blame this on incompetence, one person failing to do their job, or people's stupidity, and it definitely sounds like a big stuff-up by the local AEC workers, but we need to acknowledge that having such strict formality rules makes this stuff much more of a problem.
30.05.2025 00:11 β π 17 π 3 π¬ 2 π 0Very poor show.
30.05.2025 00:10 β π 2 π 0 π¬ 1 π 0Anti-preferencers still being seen whinging about Labor getting 62.7% of seats off 34.6% of primary votes when under the system they support UK Labour 2024 got 63.2% of seats off 33.7% of votes.
29.05.2025 06:57 β π 113 π 21 π¬ 14 π 1Now you are justifying taxing those unrealised gains (as itβs really tax and estate planning) which is fair enough.
28.05.2025 03:17 β π 0 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0Itβs not βEARNINGS onlyβ, itβs also on-paper capital gains, which is what so much of the fuss is about! (Iβm not against it.)
28.05.2025 02:10 β π 0 π 0 π¬ 1 π 0I shall take that with pinches of salt, as Trump impacted those favourabilities.
27.05.2025 04:38 β π 0 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0Ah. And what do you reckon about Berowra special hospital team 1's very high informal in 2025 with robust 250 turnout? π€
27.05.2025 03:34 β π 0 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0The candidate numbers 2022 v 2025 is particularly terrific, but maybe you don't need to add seat parts together (eg to get 7.8 for 2022 Bradfield); instead each portion (with, say, >2000 voters) separately. So for Bradfield you would have 2 data points. Would be statistically stronger innit?
27.05.2025 03:25 β π 0 π 0 π¬ 1 π 0@benraue.com It is highly excellent, but what about Berowra special hospital, a standout across 2004-2025 with its meaningfully large turnout?
27.05.2025 03:18 β π 0 π 0 π¬ 1 π 0Me on the orange, bloated election ingredient that dare not speak its name.
t.co/IyU125q1SX
Trump: "I'm not happy with what Putin is doing. He's killing a lot of people and I don't know what the hell happened to Putin. I've known him a long time ... we're in the middle of talking and he's shooting rockets into Kyiv and other cities. I don't like it at all. I'm surprised."
25.05.2025 22:20 β π 2476 π 443 π¬ 1036 π 512All federal elections 1910 (2pty system) to 2025* in decreasing order of winner % of HoR seats.
1975 a much bigger win than 2025, but similar % of seats for losing side. No crossbench back then.
* 2025 counting not final.
(Some incl in party totals early last century arguable)
Kapterian to the live count lead
23.05.2025 06:52 β π 21 π 7 π¬ 3 π 3tbh Ming would be rather unsettled by some of the names on the ballot of his namesake.
22.05.2025 05:29 β π 2 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0Oh right, I stand corrected. Thatβs pretty trivial.
22.05.2025 05:00 β π 1 π 0 π¬ 1 π 0Europe's Capital Cities ranked by size (area that is).
21.05.2025 22:27 β π 32 π 9 π¬ 7 π 1Nuclear, yes, one of four policy demands.
22.05.2025 02:07 β π 1 π 1 π¬ 1 π 0Itβs pretty simple. The blurb mentions Westminster and 2party system, and western democracies, most of which donβt have Westminster arrangements.
22.05.2025 01:43 β π 0 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0