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Patrick Gerland

@pgerland.bsky.social

Focus on demographic estimation problems/methods and projections, especially in Africa and Asia. https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Patrick_Gerland/

147 Followers  |  123 Following  |  26 Posts  |  Joined: 18.12.2023  |  1.7685

Latest posts by pgerland.bsky.social on Bluesky

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Here is a comparison for the world population.un.org/wup/countryp...

20.11.2025 14:09 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
World Urbanization Prospects

See our online FAQ 11 on DEGURBA population.un.org/wup/faqs on the difference between the DEGURBA results and national urban definitions

20.11.2025 12:39 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

European Union Events
Human Planet Forum

The Human Planet Forum 2025 is a flagship event of the GEO Human Planet Initiative (GHP) which works to understan...

https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/events/human-planet-forum-2025-2025-11-19_EUROPA_CURRENT_LANG

#EU #European #Union #Events

08.10.2025 09:16 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
Map showing eastern Afghanistan Population Density

Map showing eastern Afghanistan Population Density

This morning Andy Tatem is speaking at the #HumanPlanetForum sharing our Global 2 new high-resolution population datasets - as the UN launches World Urbanization Prospects 2025.

Watch live: https://webcast.ec.europa.eu/geo-human-planet-forum-2025-25-11-19

19.11.2025 11:17 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
Global Human Settlement - Population in cities, towns and rural areas from 1950 to 2100 - European Commission The GHSL framework produces thematic information and evidence-based knowledge supporting the implementation of EU urban policy and the international frameworks.

Explore detailed methods, and additional geospatial data, & interactive visualizations on the European Commission’s website. human-settlement.emergency.copernicus.eu/ghs_wup2025....

18.11.2025 18:02 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
Global Human Settlement - Population in cities, towns and rural areas from 1950 to 2100 - European Commission The GHSL framework produces thematic information and evidence-based knowledge supporting the implementation of EU urban policy and the international frameworks.

Thanks to all the team involved, but especially the collaboration with the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre and DG for Regional and Urban Policy which has been key in creating the global Degree of Urbanization dataset.

18.11.2025 18:01 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

The 2025 revision introduces a major innovation: integrating geospatial methods via the harmonized Degree of Urbanization with national urban definitions. This dual approach ensures consistent global measurement and sharper insights into settlement patterns for sustainable development

18.11.2025 17:55 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
Launch: World Urbanization Prospects 2025 | Population Division The World Urbanization Prospects 2025 will be launched on Tuesday, 18 November 2025 at 12:45 (EST).

Today, launching the World Urbanization Prospects 2025 with new UN estimates and projections of urbanization for
237 countries and areas of the world & 12,000+ cities with 50,000+ inhabitants in 2025. www.un.org/development/... - see also new online datasets and plots: population.un.org/wup/

18.11.2025 17:50 β€” πŸ‘ 8    πŸ” 7    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 2
LinkedIn This link will take you to a page that’s not on LinkedIn

UK Humanitarian Innovation Hub: Funding Opportunity: Mortality Estimation in Humanitarian Crises - Systems Innovation Partnership: To apply and/or share - Call for Expressions of Interest (lnkd.in/e7cv_VUS) - UKHIH Website (www.ukhih.org/news/now-ope...).
β–Ί EOI deadline: 11 August 2025, 5pm UTC

21.07.2025 15:53 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
World Population Prospects

For further details about teh UN projection assumptions and methods, see: population.un.org/wpp/methodol..., in particular: World Population Prospects 2024: Methodology of the United Nations Population Estimates and Projections. population.un.org/wpp/assets/F...

24.05.2025 16:30 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
World Population Prospects

See also online data sources for each country underlying empirical data: population.un.org/wpp/data-sou... including interactive plots: population.un.org/dataportal/d...

24.05.2025 16:28 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

If you have any additional ideas about what the UN should do about this statistical modelling challenge, all ideas are welcome to explore for future potential improvements, and out-of-sample validation at national and subnational level.

24.05.2025 16:26 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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BBC Radio 4 - More or Less: Behind the Stats, Is the UN underestimating the global fall in fertility? How one graph shows the conservative side of the United Nations’ population estimates

A recent interview with BBC Radio 4 - More or Less: Behind the Stats, Is the UN underestimating the global fall in fertility? www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p... and online TFR plots to browse more countries: population.un.org/wpp/graphs?l...

24.05.2025 16:24 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 3    πŸ“Œ 0
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🚨Job Offer🚨
St Andrews–Max Planck PhD Studentship in Population, Health and Data Science
3.5-year St Andrews–Max Planck PhD studentship in Population, Health and Data Science.
Deadline: June 11
@mpidr.bsky.social @uniofstandrews.bsky.social @imprs-phds.bsky.social
www.demogr.mpg.de/en/career_61...

23.05.2025 14:15 β€” πŸ‘ 9    πŸ” 10    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
Demographic Research - Can we estimate crisis death tolls by subtracting total population estimates? A critical review and appraisal (Volume 52 - Article 23 | Pages 741–796) Volume 52 - Article 23 | Pages 741–796

🚨 New paper: when researchers study epidemics, disasters, or conflicts but don't know how many people died, they often subtract pre and post population estimates or do a crude projection. Unfortunately, this almost never provides an accurate death toll 🧡

www.demographic-research.org/Volumes/Vol5...

10.04.2025 12:07 β€” πŸ‘ 58    πŸ” 21    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 3

Reminder that the Formal Demography Working Group is meeting tomorrow! Sign up to receive Zoom details: formaldemography.github.io/working_group/

15.05.2025 15:22 β€” πŸ‘ 10    πŸ” 3    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Topical cluster map of terms used in recently cancelled NIH grants. No surprises there I guess. Data by grant-watch.us and NYT for the flagged terms. Source code available here github.com/jschoeley/gr....

14.05.2025 08:54 β€” πŸ‘ 8    πŸ” 3    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

See also childmortality.org?indicator=SBR from UN-IGME for global and country data and internationally comparable estimates of stillbirth rates, neonatal and infant mortality available in an harmonized way. See also PDF reports and articles at the bottom of the home page.

14.05.2025 12:00 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Where in the world are babies at the lowest risk of dying? It’s difficult to compare countries because they don’t always measure infant mortality in the same way.

Where in the world are babies at the lowest risk of dying?

Seems simple to answer, but countries count live births and infant deaths slightly differently.

I look at the data in my latest article: ourworldindata.org/where-are-ba...

14.05.2025 08:49 β€” πŸ‘ 35    πŸ” 3    πŸ’¬ 4    πŸ“Œ 0
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πŸ†• study reveals global patterns of the migration of scientists shedding light on how researchers move both within and between countries.
A team of researchers @mpidr.bsky.social found large disparities in the appeal of various countries and regions to scientists.
www.demogr.mpg.de/go/migration...

14.05.2025 08:29 β€” πŸ‘ 15    πŸ” 5    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 1
NorrkΓΆping campus at sunset

NorrkΓΆping campus at sunset

We are hiring postdocs in Computational Social Science
πŸ“SweCSS, NorrkΓΆping, Sweden
⏰Deadline June 3
πŸ”—https://liu.se/en/work-at-liu/vacancies/26854
Please apply // help us spread the word

13.05.2025 12:47 β€” πŸ‘ 105    πŸ” 76    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 1
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2025 Global Report on Internal Displacement (GRID) The 2024 Global Report on Internal Displacement (GRID) report presents the data and analysis behind the 75.9 million people living in internal displacement as of the end of 2023. It is the ninth editi...

2025 Global Report on Internal Displacement (GRID) | IDMC - Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre
www.internal-displacement.org/global-repor...

13.05.2025 10:48 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Some potential funding support for UK students who are assessed as having a Home/UK fee status and who meet the residency requirements as defined by ESRC Studentship regulations.

13.05.2025 12:18 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Smarter refugee surveys for a more effective humanitarian response UNHCR and WorldPop are innovating the mapping of displaced populations and unlocking the power of registration data

Using satellite imagery and advanced spatial modelling we are collaborating with #UNHCR to innovate mapping of displaced populations and unlocking the power of registration data.

By WorldPop's Dr Sarchil Qader and Edith Darin, and others.

#refugees #geodata #mapping

medium.com/unhcr-innova...

10.04.2025 13:38 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 3    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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πŸ“’ L’IR Progedo #recrute un ou une ingΓ©nieurΒ·e d'Γ©tudes en production, traitement, analyse de donnΓ©es et enquΓͺtes dans le cadre du projet ANR EXO-POPP, sous la direction de @sandrabree.bsky.social.

πŸ”— En savoir plus : exopopp.hypotheses.org

πŸ“Œ Postulez avant le 1ᡉʳ juin 2025 : bit.ly/43hMBZV

12.05.2025 12:15 β€” πŸ‘ 8    πŸ” 7    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Opinion | MAGA Natalism Is Doomed to Fail

East Asia demonstrates that financial incentives alone are insufficient to reverse declining birthrates. Deep-rooted issues like gender inequality in childcare, high living/education costs, and work-life imbalance need addressing for any profamily policy to succeed.
www.nytimes.com/2025/04/21/o...

12.05.2025 12:47 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
EXO-POPP – Extraction Optique des entitΓ©s nommΓ©es manuscrites pour les actes de mariage de la population de Paris (1880-1940)

[Recrutement]

Je recrute, sur l'ANR Exo-POPP (Extraction Optique des entitΓ©s nommΓ©es manuscrites pour les actes de mariage de la population de Paris (1880-1940) (exopopp.hypotheses.org) un ou une ingΓ©nieurΒ·e pour 12 mois (localisation : Paris, @progedo.bsky.social ).

12.05.2025 07:43 β€” πŸ‘ 5    πŸ” 5    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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Ever wondered why some charts are more effective and engaging than others?

I’ll be going through all the theory, evidence and principles behind compelling data storytelling from this Wednesday.

Free to watch for anyone who is interested: www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/the-fundam...

12.05.2025 07:46 β€” πŸ‘ 317    πŸ” 77    πŸ’¬ 13    πŸ“Œ 12
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Open call for Associate Editors at our journal!! To find out more about requirements and application procedures πŸ‘€ here www.demographic-research.org/files/Call_f...

09.05.2025 13:18 β€” πŸ‘ 18    πŸ” 17    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

You are right, but at the time national authorities questioned the assumptions of model-based estimates of excess deaths based on limited empirical data publicly available. Years later these nationwide data show the magnitude of the overall mortality impact without any modeling assumptions.

09.05.2025 13:26 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

@pgerland is following 20 prominent accounts