By the system exhibiting chaotic behavior vs periodic behavior
03.10.2025 03:46 β π 1 π 0 π¬ 1 π 0@relearningecon.bsky.social
A system dynamicist specializing it's application for Macroeconomic Forecasting. I am the Chief Research Officer at Modern Macro Technologies https://relearningeconomics.com
By the system exhibiting chaotic behavior vs periodic behavior
03.10.2025 03:46 β π 1 π 0 π¬ 1 π 0No
03.10.2025 03:42 β π 1 π 0 π¬ 1 π 0If you move faster through space You move slower through time If you stand still in space You move fastest through time. A very confusing three dimensional hour glass shape with an X and y axis bisecting it. Time up top elsewhere on the y axis left side and space on the y axis right side. Hour glass is light cone. Squiggly line top right quadrant says world line of a moving observer and bottom right quadrant says present Plane of stars creates extra dimension.
@relearningecon.bsky.social
π€π
How are YOU doing?
Crazy part: photons move only through space, so from their perspective no time passes at all. Mind = blown....
22.09.2025 01:48 β π 1 π 0 π¬ 1 π 0Teaching undergrads rational expectations should count as academic malpractice.
Modeling with it is like designing a unicorn and then asking why real horses donβt have horns.
Might as well just start with the horse.
Lol
11.09.2025 04:51 β π 1 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0If you want to prevent crises, track private debt-to-GDP, not just inflation.
The warning signs are always there if youβre willing to look.
Check out all my blogs out on this topic an more on my Patreon:
π§΅8/8
www.patreon.com/c/relearning...
Policy failure #2: obsessing over public debt while letting private debt run wild.
Itβs the household mortgage bubble, not the deficit, that crashes economies.
π§΅7/8
Policy failure #1: ignoring private credit growth in macro models.
DSGE model frameworks treat debt as neutral or irrelevant.
The cycle is driven by leverage, but the models are blind to it.
π§΅6/8
Minsky called it the βfinancial instability hypothesisβ:
Stability breeds complacency, risk-taking rises, debt loads grow, until the system tips.
π§΅5/8
Unlike public debt, private debt must be serviced from incomes that canβt be printed.
When repayment strains hit, spending collapses, dragging the economy down.
π§΅4/8
Private debt booms are dangerous because they fuel asset bubbles and fragile balance sheets.
When cashflows falter or rates rise, defaults spike and leverage turns into a chain reaction.
π§΅3/8
1929, Japanβs 1990s bust, the 2008 GFC, all preceded by surging private debt-to-GDP.
In each case, public debt rose after the crisis, as governments absorbed the fallout.
Cause and effect are backwards in the textbook story.
π§΅2/8
Mainstream macro blames crises on public debt or bad policy.
History tells a different story, The biggest crashes follow private debt booms , when households & firms load up on credit faster than incomes grow.
π§΅1/8
So there is an equilibrium for that after all.
06.07.2025 04:30 β π 1 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0π
06.07.2025 04:27 β π 1 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0An economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn't happen today."
-Lawrence J. Peter
The most "import" tent thing about this quote is the photo I used, specifically his shirt. You're welcome Steveππ
27.06.2025 17:57 β π 1 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0''The great tragedy of the global economic malaise is that it is caused by a shortage of something that is essentially costless to produce: money.''
-Steve Keen
βSuch a secondary depression caused by an induced deflation should of course be prevented by appropriate monetary counter-measures. Though I am sometimes accused of having represented the deflationary cause of the business cycles as part of the curative process"
-Friedrich Hayek
I'll probably get cancelled for this...π€·
26.06.2025 23:51 β π 3 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0''Even a modest Basic Income program could become a stepping-stone toward the most profound transformation of all: to unlatch work from livelihood entirely.''
-David Graeber
The economy isnβt βalive and wellβ in equilibriumβno more than a heart is when it flatlines. π
Like any complex system, it orbits strange attractors (and repellers), never truly at rest.
My dysfunctional relationship with economics that turned into a bizarre love story.π youtu.be/LktJHH9KDzc
25.06.2025 21:09 β π 4 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0"The decline of the West is not necessary or historically inevitable. It is the result of choosing policies dictated by its rentier interests."
-Michael Hudson
βSeparate two of the most important issues regarding entitlements: the governmentβs financial ability to pay and our economyβs productive capacity to deliver promised real benefits.β
-Stephanie Kelton
"The myth that holds that the great corporation is the puppet of the market, the powerless servant of the consumer, is, in fact one of the devices by which its power is perpetuated."
-John Kenneth Galbraith
The vagueness is meant to make the reader think. These posts on Blue sky suck though because my account is shit small, but they pop on X.
24.06.2025 06:37 β π 1 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0