Paul Kohlenberg

The EU has the tools to stand up to the US (read anti-coercion instrument) and I read @olofgill.bsky.social's statements to mean it is ready to use them if Trump really blocks all trade with Spain because Sánchez dares criticize him. The EU has to stand together.

Strategically it’s incredibly clever the EU is eroding the key levers of the green transition.

As a net oil and gas importer being susceptible to repeated geopolitical supply and terms of trade shocks is just such a great place to be.

As transatlantic divorce plays out in Munich, China enjoys the silence For long, China was a magnet for America’s rhetorical aggression. Now, it is the Europeans who are under fire.

As transatlantic divorce plays out in Munich, China enjoys the silence

My last dispatch from Bavaria on Beijing floating under the radar, looking for openings...

Screenshot of a White House Press Release titled „In Munich, Secretary Rubio Calls on Allies to Embrace Shared Heritage, Meet Challenges of New Era“.

It’s telling what the White House highlights with regard to Rubio’s speech. „Shared heritage“, „Christian foundations“, „cultural legacy“, „cultural preservation“, and a rejection of globalism. That‘s at the heart of its understanding of „Western civilization“.

Merz at MSC: Europe will not adopt MAGA vision of free speech. It does not support tariffs and protectionism. It believes in climate change and the need for the WHO. "The US will run up against its own limits if it tries to go it alone"

"As Japan’s election showed on Sunday, coercive pressure from abroad — in this case from China — can backfire badly on the coercer."

Trump, in an Escalation, Calls for Republicans to ‘Nationalize’ Elections

www.nytimes.com/2026/02/02/u...

Can Europe do nuclear deterrence without America? Britain and France are deepening their co-operation

Can Europe do nuclear deterrence without America? France and the UK are deepening their cooperation. Other European conversations with the continent’s two nuclear-armed powers are also underway

A joint report with @shashj.bsky.social

economist.com/europe/2026/...

The Other India-EU Deal The trade pact may be getting all the attention, but the pair also inked a landmark defense agreement.

The trade pact may be getting all the attention, but the pair also inked a landmark defense agreement this week.

In Trump’s Shadow, India and the European Union Expand Trade Ties After nearly 20 years of negotiations, the two sides struck a far-reaching agreement that officials called “the mother of all trade deals.”

Breaking News: India and the EU announced a free-trade agreement nearly 20 years in the making.

Europe is about to sign a long-awaited free-trade deal with India One way to show America and China that also-rans have options, too

The EU and #India are the runners-up in their respective half of the globe. But if they team up, they‘ll show the world that they have options, too. 🇪🇺🇮🇳

My latest for The @economist.com.
economist.com/europe/2026/...

No idea if this will be good so it is not an endorsement per se, but curious to see how it develops

@josephtorigian.bsky.social asks a key question. We know Xi thinks in terms of hardening systems against risk, but is also a student of Maoist politics. Putting the fear of God into the PLA could be both. In a world where 2027 is a key year, Xi may see it as a final forging of the sword.

Breaking | China’s top military leaders Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli put under investigation Pair suspected of ‘serious violations of discipline and law’.

China’s top military leaders Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli put under investigation
www.scmp.com/news/china/p...

Many western multinationals are losing enthusiasm for China
• European and US firms cut employment in China by almost 10% between 2019 and 2023
• Several big US firms like Starbucks, IBM and Airbnb have pulled out of China, completely or in part
www.economist.com/briefing/202...

Mit, ohne, gegen Washington: Die Neubestimmung der Bezie­hungen Europas zu den USA Die Epoche der Pax Americana, die nach dem Zweiten Weltkrieg Deutsch­lands und Europas Sicherheit garantierte, kommt an ihr Ende. Die Europäer...

Die Ära der Pax Americana geht zu Ende. Europa kann sich nicht länger auf die Partnerschaft mit den USA verlassen. Eine Studie von Barbara Lippert & Stefan Mair (Hg.) zeigt in 14 Beiträgen Wege aus der Abhängigkeit von Washington. (1/4) www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...

Chinese Policymakers Look Focused on Domestic Demand to Lift Economy Senior state planners are formulating a five-year plan to lift domestic demand, acknowledging that the world’s second-largest economy currently faces an imbalance between “strong supply and weak deman...

„We believe Beijing has become increasingly concerned about one of the worst domestic demand slowdowns in this century“ www.wsj.com/economy/chin...

NATO's Rutte says Arctic talks with Trump will focus on keeping Russia, China out Trump's ambitions have put strain on the NATO alliance.

NATO’s Rutte says Arctic talks with Trump will focus on keeping Russia and China out – Reuters

The uncomfortable truth is that we no longer know the answer. U.S. security guarantees are conditional, transactional, and potentially unreliable. A far stronger European defence is no longer a matter of ambition or prestige—it is a necessity. 3/4

China battery storage installations triple North America's in 2025 Gap expected to grow this year despite AI-fueled demand in US

China's newly added energy storage capacity last year grew 40% asia.nikkei.com/business/ene...

"Benchmark Intelligence forecasts China will install 239 GWh of new capacity this year, making up more than half the 458.5 GWh expected globally."

Taiwan’s $40 Billion Military Spending Plan Stalled by Political Impasse

www.nytimes.com/2026/01/21/w... "Members of Mr. Lai’s Democratic Progressive Party, for their part, say that the opposition is trying to paralyze his administration."

Rectifying Names, Erasing Mongols: The Unmaking of Mongolian Education in China On a clear October morning in 2025, two massive cranes rolled up to a middle school in the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Workers prised off the large Chinese and Mongolian signs running along the ...

In this essay, @jleibold.bsky.social and Soyonbo Borjgin expose the systematic dismantling of Mongolian-medium schooling in Inner Mongolia and argue that changing school names from Mongolian into Chinese constitutes one of the final acts in cancelling once-promised autonomy and sovereignty.

China’s birth rate drops to record low as economy hits target despite US trade war | CNN China clocked its lowest birth rate on record in 2025 as its population shrank for the fourth year in a row, deepening a demographic challenge that could drag on the world’s second-largest economy for...

China clocked its lowest birth rate on record in 2025.

Overall population drop by 3.39 million

7.92 million babies born
11.31 million deaths

🇨🇳 Rate fell to 5.63 births per 1,000 people in 2025

edition.cnn.com/2026/01/18/c...

MOST INTERESTING

*German business lobby* says retaliatory tariffs, ACI + cancelling Turnberry "plausible"

From BDI: "It is understandable EP is now postponing vote on US trade agreement. We also consider considerations re retaliatory tariffs or the use of ACI to be plausible at this stage"

Even allowing for some rerouting via third markets, the asymmetry is clear: the EU is far more dependent on Chinese clean tech than the United States, while China is far more dependent on the EU market than on the US.

Great chart from the CER's new paper: www.cer.eu/publications...

Wadephul in China: Selbstbewusstsein lohnt sich Der relativ freundliche Empfang für den deutschen Außenminister in Peking zeigt: Es war richtig, im Oktober auf den diplomatischen Affront mit einer Absage der Reise zu reagieren.

"...zeigt, dass es richtig war, auf den di­plo­ma­tischen Affront im Oktober mit einer demonstrativen Absage der Reise zu reagieren. Auch wenn China in einer deutlich stärkeren Position als Europa ist, zahlt sich selbstbewusstes Auftreten aus."
www.faz.net/aktuell/poli...

Wir haben großes Interesse daran, immer wieder Verständnis füreinander zu entwickeln. So auch in unserem – mit Omid Nouripour, Nicolas Zippelius & Ralf Stegner – sehr guten Gespräch mit Liu Haixing, dem Leiter der Internationalen Abteilung der Kommunistischen Partei, die China entscheidend prägt.

China floods the world with gasoline cars it can't sell at home While Western nations focus on the competitive threat of Chinese EVs, a different challenge is reshaping the auto industry. Beijing's legacy automakers are saturating emerging and second-tier markets ...

Cars 🇨🇳 can't sell at home:
"boom in gasoline-powered exports is driven by the same EV subsidies and policies that wrecked the China businesses of automakers including VW, GM and Nissan by underwriting scores of Chinese EV makers and igniting a devastating price war" www.reuters.com/investigatio...

Cover of ASPI’s “The Party’s AI”. A lone man stands on a road where tanks should be, but they’ve been erased, mirroring how Chinese LLMs censor sensitive images. For more, see Chapter 1.

Our new ASPI report 'The Party’s AI' is out now. It shows how China’s LLMs, vision models and “AI+” governance architecture are hard-coding censorship and control into the future of AI.

www.aspi.org.au/repo...

A Human Security Collapse: Enforced Disappearances and Detained Civilians in Russia’s War Against Ukraine | Heinrich Böll Stiftung Enforced disappearances and arbitrary detentions of Ukrainian civilians by Russian authorities are systematic and widespread, yet severely underreported. Germany and the EU must use diplomatic leverag...

📚 ThinkPeace #3 is out now!

The paper sheds light on the widespread and systematic, yet largely underreported crime of enforced disappearances and arbitrary detentions of Ukrainian civilians by Russian authorities.