Bjørn Ihler

I really wish there would be more than like 3 ads ay any given time in the Nordics - getting sick and tired on basically the same things on loop across Spotify, Prime, HBO etc.

NRK legger ned utenriks­redaksjonen: 30 ansatte må søke seg til nye avdelinger Fra påske oppløser NRK utenriksredaksjonen. Ingen av de rundt 30 ansatte vet om de får tilhøre nye utenrikssatsinger, eller om de må jobbe med annet enn utenriksstoff.

En skulle tro det var en vits. Dette er vårt NRK. Når har vi bestemt mindre Urix - mer reality?

True, Claude is deffo not alone in this camp 😆

Can report that Claude does not understand Norwegian comma rules...

Happy Monday to you too weather forecast...

Crowds worldwide rage or celebrate after Iran strikes; 23 killed in Pakistan Ten people died in Karachi where security guards at the U.S. consulate fired on demonstrators who breached the outer wall.

After Trump’s bombing of Iran, protesters breached the outer wall of the American Consulate in Karachi, Pakistan and 10 people were killed by security guards.

An additional 11 were killed after torching a UN building in Skardu, and two were killed in Islamabad.

Several new Israeli airstrikes on various areas in southern Lebanon

As the Pentagon just announced the first three American deaths in the war with Iran the legitimacy of the war, the long-game, exit strategy and desired outcome remains unclear. Is this a price the President, and the U.S. are willing to pay?

Looking ahead I think Iran's capabilities for asymmetric warfare, including drawing on gangs/organized crime, terrorism and cyber will be the most significant risks to security in Europe and the U.S.

I think this is a point that we should pay more attention to as Maersk and others are confirming that they're stopping shipping through Hormuz.

🧵👆🏼👇🏼

This is a cross-domain crisis. Military, cyber, maritime, financial, influence, and terrorism dimensions are all active. Multi-domain intelligence is required to see the full picture.

The information environment is poisoned. Every party is pushing narratives. Unverified claims are circulating widely. Rely on multi-source, verified reporting.

Iran's "terrorism for hire" network is a live threat. Organised crime groups across Europe, including Foxtrot, Rumba, Hell's Angels, and Mocro-Mafia-linked networks, have been operationally directed by Iranian intelligence. With the regime on "death ground," previous restraint may no longer apply.

Cyber is now Iran's primary retaliatory weapon. Conventional options are degraded. Iranian APT groups and state-directed hacktivists are already activated. European critical infrastructure is in the target set.

China's energy supply is being squeezed. Venezuela and Iran, together roughly 18% of China's seaborne crude imports, have both been disrupted within two months. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed, with traffic down about 75% and oil up 12%.

Domestic politics are a factor. Both Netanyahu and Trump face criminal proceedings, declining polls, and upcoming elections. These conditions elevate appetite for dramatic escalatory action.

Key Findings:

No clear endgame. The objectives of the US-Israeli operation are inconsistent, and no exit strategy has been articulated. Khamenei's death creates a power vacuum with unpredictable consequences.

This is not a contained military exchange. It is a cascading, multi-domain crisis with uncertain objectives, an unclear endgame, and consequences extending far beyond the SWANA Region.

Iranian strikes have hit airports in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, targeted US bases across at least six countries, and the IRGC has declared all US and Israeli assets in the region legitimate targets.

Iran's Supreme Leader has been confirmed killed, Tehran has declared 40 days of mourning, and retaliatory strikes are hitting targets across the region, including Gulf states hosting US military assets and critical civilian infrastructure.

The US-Israeli military operation against Iran that began on Saturday, 28 February, represents the most significant escalation in the Middle East since the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

The Strikes on Iran — Revontulet The US-Israeli military operation against Iran that began on Saturday, 28 February, represents the most significant escalation in the Middle East since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Iran's Supreme Le...

At Revontulet, we are watching the situation in Iran and the wider region unfold in real time and continue to monitor developments.

We have gathered some initial thoughts on the situation here:

revontulet.co/insights/ryx...

“Massive” war launched by a man with no plan. Again. Donald Trump is repeating George W. Bush's catastrophic mistakes.

"Trump has no plan for Iran. Just blow shit up, kill some people, and hope for the best. It is the war of a Mad King."

Bombing Iran Is Easy. What Comes Next Is Not. It comes down to a straightforward question: What’s the plan to translate military force into political change?

NEW: "It is true that air campaigns can destroy things. What they cannot do, by themselves, is build political outcomes."

Really superb piece from our @markhertling.bsky.social.

www.thebulwark.com/p/bombing-ir...

Headlines moved on quickly from the schoolgirls in Minab. We don’t know their names; no media profiles about their lives and aspirations. No smiling photos attached to quotes from mourning families.

How unfair that some dead are memorialised while others are relegated to ‘estimated casualties.’

Some data on that theory
www.eia.gov/todayinenerg...

If you wanna shut off oil supply to China, taking out Venezuela and Iran and generally blocking trade through the Strait of Hormuz is one approach...

Remember how stable Iraq was after they killed Saddam?

Remember how stable Libya was when they killed Gaddafi?

See how stable Haiti is now when they killed Jovenel Moïse?

This always turns out well

Paul asked us to wait to publish this until he was out of Cuba and safe from harm

Well, he’s safe from harm now forever, god love him