Jake Werner

On Halloween, ‘state-sponsored terror’ in Chicago and the north suburbs Despite pleas from Gov. JB Pritzker to pause federal immigration enforcement operations while children celebrate Halloween, Border Patrol agents tore through Chicago and the suburbs.

A wave of violence grips the Chicagoland area
www.chicagotribune.com/2025/10/31/c...

Border Patrol grabbed workers from the front yard of a home in Edison Park this afternoon then took them behind an office building in Niles and passed them off to a prisoner van. Woman came out to MF them and said "you're in the most conservative neighborhood in the city and nobody wants you here."

There are basic issues of democratic legitimacy when armed and masked men are defying the wishes of neighborhoods and cities of America.

China ‘made a real mistake’ by ‘firing shots’ on rare earths, says Scott Bessent US Treasury secretary says US will protect itself from supply shocks in 12-24 months

Two big questions now:

1) Will Trump rein in the hawks in his admin who are constantly undoing each truce, so genuine negotiations can finally commence?

2) When will China act against the China exclusion measures the US is forcing on third countries?
ft.com/content/399a...
2/2

A positive interview overall from Bessent, who says the US and China have reached an “equilibrium”.

But below he’s misrepresenting things. China put the gun on the table in Dec, after Biden ignored Xi’s warning at the G20.

The Trump team’s overconfidence forced China to go further.
1/2

The US certainly does have a role in military balancing. But it has to be accompanied by even more energy on the positive side of the relationship (missing for the better part of a decade) or it leads to a spiral of fear and hostility.

Some more suggestions here:
quincyinst.org/research/com...

I share your revulsion toward the Chinese environmental record. But coercion and separation are both counterproductive approaches to changing things, because the environment doesn’t care about national borders.

What’s needed is a shared global reform program, also discussed in that essay.

I’m a progressive (not a “Sinophile”) so I want Democrats to be in the right place on China. They’re not. Biden’s confrontational policy would have led to conflict, creating a permanent political advantage for militarists and nationalists.

I make that argument here:
bsky.app/profile/jwdw...

America’s foreign policy has changed — and must remain changed Global economic power has for too long been concentrated in the hands of large corporations and state-run enterprises

Besides, we know Murphy has fallen for the tough on China canard because he’s on record about it.
www.ft.com/content/1c99...

Politics 101 is you criticize your opponents for doing the wrong thing.

If you think they’re doing the right thing, then you say: glad you agree with me! Sure does make you look like an ass when you attacked me for doing the same thing. And it would be better if you changed this, and this…

This is an easy hit but the framing doesn’t hold up.

Under Biden, China warned with growing urgency it was preparing to fight back against US economic warfare.

A Harris admin would have faced the same choice: accept a ceasefire or escalate to open conflict. Does Murphy want open conflict?

I'm sorry this is so fucking funny. The transitions from the cool guy montage set to "Many Men," to sounding like Milhouse while you narrate buying energy drinks in a corner store, to the slo-mo 'wearing of a tactical helmet in a parking lot.' We live in a Dictatorship of Dwight Schrutes

The US built a system of weaponized interdependence to coerce the whole world. China is now building its own.

The US is reducing the damage it does to China through its system. China will do the same.

It’s not one side standing down but reciprocity that comes from credible threats on both sides.

NEW: President Trump says he has instructed the DOD to begin testing nuclear weapons “on an equal basis” with Russia and China.

It’s unclear what this means since Russia and China are not currently conducting nuclear tests and the DOD does not conduct testing for the US (it’s the DOE that does).

Already one major breakthrough from the Trump–Xi meeting:

We now have stock photos from THIS DECADE to illustrate our op-eds on US–China relations!

Critical chip shortage worsens by the day The European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA) is increasingly concerned by imminent disruption to European vehicle manufacturing due to the block in supply of foundational microchips that are essential for our members’ manufacturing.

Truly seems we're on the verge of a huge shock to the car industry over the Nexperia crisis - will keep track of things in this rolling thread

EU's car-making body said today assembly lines in Europe "might only be days away" from grinding to a halt

I’ve argued that the underlying reason for conflict is buildup of zero-sum pressures in the global system after 2008. Trump won’t address those structural forces.

But for his own self-serving reasons, Trump could break the DC consensus on conflict. That could open space for a different approach.

Can Trump finally break with Biden's failed China policy? Seeking to contain Beijing has backfired, the president's meeting with Xi this week will show whether he can pivot

Biden’s attempt to restrict China’s power failed, leaving the US weaker and the world a more dangerous place. But much of the foreign policy world still yearns for an irreversible escalatory spiral.

For RS, I ask whether Trump can break with it.
responsiblestatecraft.org/trump-biden-...

After every recent recession - the early 90s, early 00s and post 2007 - there have been stories about how the fall in employment is the result of some deep structural change in the economy. When in fact, every time, it was just weak demand. This time will not be different.

In the next 36 hours, millions of Northern Illinois will find out if they will be able to keep getting to work or be totally fucked over.

That's the decision.

Don't blow it, IL lege. Lend a hand and make sure they get it done @govpritzker.illinois.gov.

An incredible illustration of Blob-brain in action:

We should oppose US extrajudicial killings/war crimes because … China “could use this precedent to gain advantage on the global stage.”

#KavanaughStop
bsky.app/profile/pfan...

I’m a US citizen and a veteran. ICE arrested me for no reason. Jailed for three days without an explanation or ability to notify anyone, George Retes argues the only path to healing starts with the government taking accountability for its actions.

"Agents engulfed my car in tear gas, smashed my driver-side window, and pepper-sprayed my face. They dragged me out, threw me to the ground, and even while I was complying, one agent kneeled on my neck and another kneeled on my back."

newsletter.ofthebrave.org/p/im-a-us-ci...

Dozens of Little Village high schoolers walked out of class today to protest immigration raids.

Students held signs reading “My parents fought for my future, now I will fight for theirs,” and “We speak for those who can’t.” blockclubchi.co/431dfqy

I know it’s too much to expect them to know their history, but if the American Revolution had a motto, it definitely would not have been “immigrants go home.”

It would have been “get your fucking soldiers out of our cities.”

APEC Summit 2025: What’s at Stake? Quincy Institute experts share their assessment of what to expect at the summit.

I join @jyjamespark.bsky.social, @globalsarang.bsky.social, and @rajakorman.bsky.social to offer thoughts on the smörgåsbord of diplomacy around the APEC summit this week.

My focus is on the escalation–de-escalation cycle in Trump’s attempts to negotiate with China.
quincyinst.org/research/ape...

This video from Portland is a metaphor for what is going on in America. ICE trying so hard to get Americans to cross a line and if they don't, dragging them across the line and violently attacking.

In ICE’s Expanding Chicago Blitz, Federal Authorities Turn Resistance Into A Crime Federal authorities are increasingly using charges — or the threat of them — to counter resistance to the immigration enforcement blitz in Chicago.

“they are extremely frustrated and they’re really trying to bend every single rule possible … to fight against the really well organized resistance that Chicago, and the Chicago area, has put up"

blockclubchicago.org/2025/10/22/i...

Preventing Taiwan War: Is Strategic Ambiguity Still Working? Experts discuss if strategic ambiguity remains a viable U.S. strategy.

Looking forward to a great discussion with @mdswaine5.bsky.social, @bglaser.bsky.social, and Eric Heginbotham—today 12pm ET.

New thinking on how to prevent war over Taiwan. Is strategic ambiguity still viable and, if not, what comes after?
quincyinst.org/events/preve...

on the one hand, here we have a right-wing demagogue showing his contempt for the domestic "other" using unclean/clean metaphors, wrapped up in masculine power fantasies and military imagery with no small bit of Freudianism in there as a treat

and on the other hand, the man thinks poop is funny