This is still valid, more than a month after I first wrote it
05.03.2026 06:59 โ ๐ 4 ๐ 1 ๐ฌ 0 ๐ 0@ibishblog.bsky.social
Senior Resident Scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute (AGSI), weekly columnist for The National, and writer and speaker at large. Former Bloomberg columnist and New York Times regular contributor, now writing a lot for The Atlantic.
This is still valid, more than a month after I first wrote it
05.03.2026 06:59 โ ๐ 4 ๐ 1 ๐ฌ 0 ๐ 0This is one of the best webinars Iโve ever moderated:
05.03.2026 06:57 โ ๐ 6 ๐ 1 ๐ฌ 0 ๐ 1Iran War Provides Decisive Test for Lebanon to Assert Authority Over Hezbollah @ibishblog.bsky.social agsi.org/analysis/ira...
03.03.2026 16:31 โ ๐ 0 ๐ 1 ๐ฌ 1 ๐ 0After decades of tolerating Hezbollahโs warmaking independence, the current crisis has compelled Lebanese leaders to ban its military activities; this project will do much to determine the reach Iran can maintain in the Arab world. @ibishblog.bsky.social
03.03.2026 17:30 โ ๐ 1 ๐ 2 ๐ฌ 0 ๐ 0Though they were unsuccessful in preventing the current conflict, and, as expected, have been dragged into the U.S.-Israeli confrontation with Iran, Gulf Arab countries remain crucial to hopes for limiting the war and bringing it to a quick resolution. @ibishblog.bsky.social
04.03.2026 16:30 โ ๐ 0 ๐ 1 ๐ฌ 0 ๐ 0
Trump is putting his own spin on a Bush-style war, hoping for a Venezuela-style win
My latest for The National
www.thenationalnews.com/opinion/comm...
Trumpโs Gaza Plans Are Profoundly Unserious
My latest for โฆโชThe Atlanticโฌโฉ
www.theatlantic.com/internationa...
When quickly debunked rumors in the Israeli media that the UAE was seeking to manage postconflict Gaza were widely welcomed in Israel, it demonstrated both the trust the UAE has built among Israelis but also their lack of understanding of Emirati policies and interests. @ibishblog.bsky.social
05.02.2026 21:30 โ ๐ 2 ๐ 2 ๐ฌ 0 ๐ 0
I explain to the excellent โฆโชMark z Owen of France 24 TVโฌโฉ that neither Israel nor Hamas is sincerely interested in โPhase 2โ of Trumpโs non-existent ceasefire, but are both preparing to cement the very real partition and ongoing war in Gaza.
www.france24.com/en/neither-i...
Peter Gabriel is still THE MAN, bringing it here with a stunning new track:
Put the Bucket Down (Bright-Side Mix) youtu.be/WmXXYjOs4LU?... via @YouTube
With the US poised for attack, what a 'Venezuela scenario' could like in Iran
My latest for The Nationalโฌโฉ
www.thenationalnews.com/opinion/comm...
With the US poised for attack, what a 'Venezuela scenario' could like in Iran
My latest for The Nationalโฌโฉ
www.thenationalnews.com/opinion/comm...
Video โ Outlook 2026: Prospects and Priorities for U.S.-Gulf Relations in the Year Ahead with @alfoneh.bsky.social, Tim Callen, Kristin Smith Diwan, @ibishblog.bsky.social, Abbas Kadhim, Amb. William Roebuck, Amb. Douglas Silliman, and Raymond Karam. agsi.org/events/outlo...
16.01.2026 19:13 โ ๐ 0 ๐ 1 ๐ฌ 0 ๐ 0
Peter Gabriel is still THE MAN, bringing it here with a stunning new track:
Put the Bucket Down (Bright-Side Mix) youtu.be/WmXXYjOs4LU?... via @YouTube
This was arguably the best panel weโve held in the ten year history of @gulfstatesinst.bsky.social
14.11.2025 02:47 โ ๐ 9 ๐ 1 ๐ฌ 0 ๐ 0
Donโt fuck with the amazing Richard Byrne
stage-write.ghost.io/not-so-wonde...
"In the end, the big news was the extent to which the Arab countries put their differences aside and decided to back the same ideas. This is a very important inflection point in the ability of Arab states to work together." @ibishblog.bsky.social agsi.org/events/after...
04.11.2025 17:36 โ ๐ 3 ๐ 1 ๐ฌ 0 ๐ 0Saudi Arabia has long sought a formula for clarifying the regional security role of the large-scale U.S. military facilities in the Gulf region, especially the significant air base in Qatar and naval headquarters in Bahrain. @ibishblog.bsky.social
11.11.2025 19:04 โ ๐ 0 ๐ 1 ๐ฌ 0 ๐ 0
VERY excited to be discussing โThe US-Saudi Partnership Ahead of the MBSโs Washington Visit tomorrow morning with @HeshamAlghannam, @kdiwaniya,@BernardHaykel, and F. Gregory Gause, lll.
Itโs another best of the best panel, for โฆโช@GulfStatesInstโฌโฉ of course.
agsi.org/events/the-u...
But ever since the ceasefire was agreed, Trump couldnโt miss the many clear signs that the Israeli leader has been looking for an excuse to resume fighting. Playing on the PMโs famous nickname, Israelis have been referring to this as โBibi-sittingโ.
www.thenationalnews.com/opinion/comm...
The downside of his exuberant boasting and demands for the Nobel Peace Prize is that, while Trump deserves credit for having helped organise the desperately needed ceasefire, both the truce and a potential return to war are now inexorably linked to him.
www.thenationalnews.com/opinion/comm...
More than 170 Americans have been detained by ICE since Donald Trump took office. Dozens have been incarcerated for days, including approximately 20 children-4 of whom were held for weeks
Citizens have โbeen dragged, tackled, beaten, tased and shot by..Theyโve had their necks kneeled onโ
Itโs difficult to parse the words and deeds of these two highly unreliable and non-credible actors. Both Israel and Hamas have contributed heavily to the devastating Gaza war, and neither appear fully convinced that ending the conflict is preferable for them.
www.thenationalnews.com/opinion/comm...
Among the many casualties of renewed fighting, especially if it spirals back into full-blown warfare, will be the claims and credibility of US President Donald Trump.
My latest for โฆโชThe National
www.thenationalnews.com/opinion/comm...
Thank you. It was very good.
28.10.2025 17:46 โ ๐ 1 ๐ 0 ๐ฌ 0 ๐ 0This is an excellent explanation of a highly significant agreement formally linking the Saudi and Pakistani defense structures โ and thereby redrawing the strategic landscape of the Gulf and Indian Ocean areas. From AGSI, naturally.
28.10.2025 17:45 โ ๐ 7 ๐ 1 ๐ฌ 0 ๐ 0I know the filmmakers would love it, otherwise they wouldnโt have made it so hilarious!
18.10.2025 22:44 โ ๐ 1 ๐ 0 ๐ฌ 0 ๐ 0I donโt typically recommend podcasts, but the Ari Aster interview with Marc Maron is worth hearing! Aster would appreciate that you laughed.
18.10.2025 17:18 โ ๐ 1 ๐ 1 ๐ฌ 2 ๐ 0I have the strong feeling I greatly annoyed everybody else. But I couldnโt help it. It was so damn funny.
18.10.2025 16:34 โ ๐ 1 ๐ 0 ๐ฌ 0 ๐ 0Of course
18.10.2025 16:33 โ ๐ 2 ๐ 1 ๐ฌ 0 ๐ 0