Stephen Mullens

The OKC Thunder are 6-5 at home against the East, but 17-3 at home against the West. There have been more East games lately when injuries have been a bigger issue, but I still wonder if this is a strategy.

Easy to look at a strong, wide jet stream and think the 4-quadrant divergence must be huge! But the calculated cross-geostrophic wind is also broad with weak accelerations. So divergence is low.

I’ve tried to avoid Iraq comparisons. Comparing wars is like comparing an ongoing hurricane to a past one. Didn’t think issues with our admin needed stating.

There’s been talk of oil, sure, but the primary justification for over the last several months has easily been drugs.

Of course, if you like the action, then it’s nice to have one person in charge who did the thing. If you don’t, you question the legality of war. Repeat for the next war.

But, not sure DT sold this to public in a way that helps his political PR. And not great for wanting Russia and China to chill.

What I can tell:
Maduro is bad for his country; 80% ⬇️ GDP, ignored election result, etc. While 80% of Venezuelans wanted Maduro out, 23% supported foreign military intervention.

US citizens also aren’t convinced drugs or alignment with Cuba are a big threat to us. ~25% support for military action.

Efficiency When a number hurts people..

"The march to make things more and more efficient makes the world a worse place." ~Roman Mars

I wrote a blog expanding on this with when I think efficiency metrics have made sports, elections, monopolies, universities, and even churches worse for community.
smoothedweather.com/consideratio...

Looking at just western conference games, Thunder have played opponents so far with just a 24% win percentage vs the top 6 in the conference. The rest of Dec-Jan, a similar 27%. But Feb-Apr will be against teams winning 45% vs top 6 teams, with 10 of those 16 games against the other top 5.

In the current NBA standings the bottom 6 teams in the west are 0-20 against the top 6 teams.

The season is only 15% complete, the top 6 is fluid, but someone will have to go lose the 9-10 game.

bwahahaha. Calculated geostrophic wind speed of 275kts. Real wind was closer to 165kts.

Such a pretty Rossby wave picking up Hurricane Melissa.

Melissa was a Category 5 hurricane for 36 consecutive hours. Only 4 other hurricanes in the satellite record – Irma (2017), Ivan (2004), Mitch (1998), and David 1979 – lasted as long as a Category 5 hurricane. Typically Cat 5s last about 18 hours before weakening.

I’ve been there and done the same.

Just my routine plea not to compare a hurricane to the EF scale. Please.

The hurricane's more impactful right side is hitting the most well-constructed part of the country. This may keep the fatality rate, which will surely be high, lower than otherwise. But it will also mean recovery will require international help.

NHC official position update, with an updated central pressure as well.

Stationary.

Bsky, as I saw it, got so branded as “Democrats are going there” that it became a place of “big politics takes” rather than a neutral mix of topics, including science. Less science discussion for the sake of science. So I’ve avoided it more than I did Twitter. Not a like for like replacement.

If your students launch a weather balloon on Saturday, you are free to use the data for a homework assignment on Monday. Those are the rules. 🤣

The AMS Gator Chapter launched their 4th weather balloon last night from Gainesville. Balloon made it to 11.8hPa and 30,001ft. Maybe next time we’ll top the club 3.76hPa record. Proud faculty advisor.

Gonna be a long season if every OKC game is 2 overtimes.

The circle forecast.

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www.worldscientific.com/worldscibook...

Just an 85kt subgeostrophic wind off the California coast.

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Is the Atlantic season ACE ahead of average, about average, or behind average? A study in choosing what historical period to compare to, also known as lying with statistics to support what you want.

Would like a history book with a good section on the expansion of surface observations in the 1800s in North America and Europe. Anyone know of one?

Last week, I was trying to figure out how close TCs had to get for Fujiwara to take place and ran across this image. I'm glad you made your plot to help put this plot in context, though. (Seems 500mi is a rough guide, but will depend on context.)

Why don’t we have a horror movie that takes place in a Spirit Halloween? 🎃🦇

Oh, I know about training data. Suffice it to say that for now the HAFS still has something to say that AI doesn't for intensity.