Alexandre Afonso

(1/10) 🚨Preprint alert!🚨

In this article, I challenge claims of a generational rise of conservative men. In the media and recent academic publications, the so-called ‘youth gender gap’ has been interpreted as a generational phenomenon.

doi.org/10.31234/osf...

Would be spicy!

Solderiers seize power in Guinea Bissau and detain the president

This is the BBC headline on yesterday's coup in Guinea Bissau. However reports in the Portuguese press (GB was a Portuguese colony) imply that the detention of the president is a smokescreen and he may have orchestrated the coup himself?

Looking forward to our next PEPP talk with @huysmans.bsky.social, December 2 in the Hague cc. @mileskellerman.bsky.social

Looking forward to our next PEPP talk with @huysmans.bsky.social, December 2 in the Hague cc. @mileskellerman.bsky.social

Hope nobody finds out it was me.

Happy to inform you that because of the cloudflare outage I cannot mark exams

The Danish Social Democrats are currently on course for their worst election result since at least the Second World War, despite their brand of far-right accommodationism being touted as a blueprint for other centre-left parties.

Difference is stark.

"But Switzerland's boring": this looks like a really cool article based on qualitative interviews with ultra rich people on whether they'd move for tax reasons academic.oup.com/ser/advance-... cc. @gabrielzucman.bsky.social

The central argument in this excellent paper & thread is that the open-access turn has neglected profit; indeed, it turbo-charged publishers’ margins. As political economists who know a thing or two about profit and power we should speak up a lot more. As it says below: What we’re doing is crazy.

Perhaps some of the Netherlands' housing problems would not be so acute if everyone didn't want to live in a max. 2 or 3-storey terraced house like the Brits, but rather in a flat in a larger building (say 5-6 floors), like the Germans or the Swiss?

Just discovered the existence of this 💥🚨Portuguese martial art💥🚨🥷 called Jogo do Pau.

this is insane.

www.kivitv.com/canyon-count...

Visualized here. Hot tip for journalists: the real question isn’t why Wilders lost, but why the far right has consolidated — despite Wilders's ineffectiveness in government.

What Would happen if The Netherlands had a 4% Electoral Threshold? Political scientists of electoral systems love The Netherlands.

I have just written a Substack piece with some scenarios of what would have happened in the recent Dutch election if there had been 4% electoral threshold (with apologies to my Dutch friends for banging on about this!) substack.com/home/post/p-...

Andrew.

In fairness in France any politician is bound to be extremely popular whatever they do so the baseline is much lower than here. And yeah, a Jetten cabinet with a minister Nanninga in it would not be the future of liberalism

Nice that you are all energised by the dynamism of a young, good looking progressive centrist. Now let me introduce you to the approval rating of Emmanuel Macron.

Sim. A ultima vez foram 6 meses.

An interesting argument I have heard in the coverage of the Dutch election is that Wilders may not be unhappy about having a smaller representation in parliament, because he did not like having a large ragtag group of inexperienced and unreliable MPs that he could not control.

Not that it matters a great deal, but Wilders's PVV has taken over as biggest party ahead of D66 in the latest count. Difference is 3000 votes, both have 26 seats.

🗳️ First exit polls from the Netherlands: Wilders’ PVV appears to shrink from 37 to 25 seats. Make no mistake — the far right remains strong. Support hasn’t disappeared; it’s shifted across parties. The Dutch political landscape is more fragmented than ever — and the far right is no exception. 🇳🇱

Only about half of the voters who voted Wilders in 2023 voted for him again.

Also, the Netherlands may soon have its first gay PM in Rob Jetten, leader of D66.

Sure, but these circles don't have an allocated number of seats to be distributed, like in most other PR countries

Frans Timmermans has just resigned as leader of the Greens/Labour alliance, following a poor election performance.

Discuss.

And there is an awful lot of electoral volatility, but mostly *within* ideological blocs rather than across them.

So we have 2 Liberal parties, 3 Christian parties, 3 far right parties, a party for the animals and a party for the farmers, all of which have seats in Parliament.