Alexandre Afonso

Percentage of votes for André Ventura (radical right) and AJ Seguro (centre-left) in the 2nd round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential elections. Parishes plotted by share of population with tertiary education.

Percentage of votes for André Ventura (radical right) and AJ Seguro (centre-left) in the 2nd round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential elections. Parishes plotted by share of population with tertiary education.

Até concordo, é com a generalização na base de 2,5% dos votos que tenho problemas, e geralmente com o desprezo de classe perfeitamente aceite com os emigrantes que sempre senti.

Eu sou tal e qual.
bsky.app/profile/caom...

Como emigrante que "não vale nada" e filho de emigrantes, claro que esperava que o desprezo que sempre notei ia aparecer com esses resultados, mas é importante dizer que 97,5% dos emigrantes *não* votaram no Ventura.

E.g in Switzerland, the far right candidate gets 72% (!) of the vote

Note that the radical right does *much* better in the very large Portuguese diaspora abroad than in Portugal itself (at least those who vote, turnout is very low): here Ventura nearly reaches 50% (not all votes counted yet)

Btw if you want to know more about the new radical right in Portugal, check out this new book edited by the excellent João Carvalho, with a chapter by yours truly.

*Seguro.

In the Portuguese presidential election, very clear victory of the centre-left candidate Segura against the radical right Ventura.

Now expect 100% tariff on your books

Probably due to social composition of diaspora: older, low-skill immigration (CH) vs. new, more high-skill immigration (NL)

Here's an interesting difference in the vote of the Portuguese diaspora in my country of birth (Switzerland) and the country where I live in yesterday's presidential election: in Switzerland the right-wing populist candidate gets 63% (!) of the vote while he comes only third in the Netherlands: 10%

🇵🇹#Portugal, presidential election exit poll (1st round):

Seguro (PS): 30-35 %
Ventura (CH): 20-24 %
Cotrim (IL): 17-21 %
Gouveia E Melo (-): 11-14 %
Marques Mendes (PSD): 8-11 %
Filipe (CDU): 1-3 %
Martins (BE): 1-3 %
Pinto (L): 0-1 %
...

RTP,
#Presidenciais2026

I'm sure every Greenlander is dying to trade free healthcare for the right to carry AR-15s around.

Look, if I had promised my working-class racist constituency lots of money *but* I didn't want to take it from my billionaire friends, perhaps I would also try to seize it elsewhere by imperialist means.

So Maduro, a ruling head of state, is charged of "possession of machine guns and destructive devices, and conspiracy to possess machine guns and destructive devices" www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...

Can I tell my NYC mayor story again today? Ok, fine.

Prettige kerstdagen voor jou ook!

Not exactly a Xmas merrymaking post, but I wrote something on the changing environment for international academics in the Netherlands and how it has changed over the last 10 years: open.substack.com/pub/alexandr...

✨ MaxCPE is back! ✨

Don’t miss this week's webinar on Wednesday, 17th Dec, at 1pm CEST. Alexandre Afonso (@alexandreafonso.bsky.social) will present his co-authored paper on public opinion towards immigrants & Martin Ruhs will join us to discuss.

✉️ Drop an email to maxcpe@mpifg.de to sign up

Date: December 17, 2025, 13:00. Title: "Making Global Migration More Acceptable? How the Rights and Obligations of Immigrants Upon Arrical Shape Preferences for Immigrant Admission." Speaker: Alexandre Afonso.

🚨 MAX-CPE is back! Our online series on Comparative Political Economy offers monthly workshops on topics ranging from financial nationalism to tax havens and geofinance.

Coming up December 17, 2025: “Making Global Migration More Acceptable?” by @alexandreafonso.bsky.social

s.gwdg.de/vcF6uF

(1/10) 🚨Preprint alert!🚨

In this article, I challenge claims of a generational rise of conservative men. In the media and recent academic publications, the so-called ‘youth gender gap’ has been interpreted as a generational phenomenon.

doi.org/10.31234/osf...

Would be spicy!

Solderiers seize power in Guinea Bissau and detain the president

This is the BBC headline on yesterday's coup in Guinea Bissau. However reports in the Portuguese press (GB was a Portuguese colony) imply that the detention of the president is a smokescreen and he may have orchestrated the coup himself?

Looking forward to our next PEPP talk with @huysmans.bsky.social, December 2 in the Hague cc. @mileskellerman.bsky.social

Looking forward to our next PEPP talk with @huysmans.bsky.social, December 2 in the Hague cc. @mileskellerman.bsky.social

Hope nobody finds out it was me.

Happy to inform you that because of the cloudflare outage I cannot mark exams

The Danish Social Democrats are currently on course for their worst election result since at least the Second World War, despite their brand of far-right accommodationism being touted as a blueprint for other centre-left parties.