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Matthew Cebul

@matthewcebul.bsky.social

Political scientist studying civil resistance, democratic erosion, and US foreign policy in MENA. Lead Research Fellow at HKS Nonviolent Action Lab; formerly USIP. Manservant to Korra the cat. Lives for Alcaraz highlights, epic fantasy, and "draw a card."

1,859 Followers  |  776 Following  |  188 Posts  |  Joined: 22.09.2023  |  2.4048

Latest posts by matthewcebul.bsky.social on Bluesky

This, to me, speaks volumes about the deep insecurity plaguing conservative men.

MAGA goons are so unsettled by normal people that they have to rove the national mall with body armor + half a dozen buddies for safety.

All of the dominance displays are just emotional reassurance.

11.08.2025 14:42 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

The path forward is very, very clear: do everything possible to regain power, then nuke the filibuster and ram through national-level reforms to end gerrymandering in all 50 states.

Tell voters that we do this to force *both* parties to play by the rules, and tell the fascists to fuck off.

04.08.2025 21:48 β€” πŸ‘ 6    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Please. He's just going to ban bar codes

04.08.2025 18:47 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

*Stephen A. Smith voice*

I know we're all TIRED of new CONTENT.

And I really hate to say this.

BUT,

I really do think that a "Profiles in Courage" pro-democracy podcast series would Slap. So. Hard.

31.07.2025 19:45 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

The news is full of illiberal horrors. It's demoralizing.

But there are also many cases of decent, everyday people doing the right thing. Like Ms. Rachel (just usually not viral).

We need to find and elevate those stories. We can't spend our days allowing the very worst of us to define us.

31.07.2025 19:35 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
31.07.2025 18:41 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

If you are a Democrat and you cannot see that "tax the rich" + merciless anti-corruption reform is the future of the party, you are an idiot.

30.07.2025 20:57 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 3    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
β€˜I’m good, I promise’: the loneliness of the low-ranking tennis player The long read: I was once Ireland’s No 1 player, and tried for years to climb the global ranks. But life at the bottom of the top can be brutal

This is the best article about tennis that I've read in some time. Cracking the top 100 in a highly physical, fully global, one on one sport is very hard.

This guy was ranked 129 in the world -- 129 out of ~8 billion --and you couldn't pay me to have his life.

www.theguardian.com/sport/articl...

30.07.2025 16:46 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

If you are wondering why public opinion of the Democratic Party is so low, perhaps it's because when Biden asked Senate Dems to confirm a Muslim judge to a Circuit Court, they said "yeah, no, the fascists can have that one."

30.07.2025 01:41 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Every day I think about what the end of US liberal hegemony means for global pro-democracy movements.

It's not good news. But it may not be horrible, either.

Movements have won in the past even w/o US support.

And, global liberalism may prove more resilient than US observers currently believe.

29.07.2025 20:36 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

This is the one, folks.

29.07.2025 19:15 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Dems who think they can go back to governing and ignore the glaring crisis of US institutions are deluded.

If you can't find a way to explain to voters that they are suffering because corrupt GOP elites took a sledgehammer to government, then you need to get the hell out of politics immediately.

28.07.2025 18:06 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Yes! And this problem will only get worse the longer that Dem leaders fail to embrace a reform agenda.

Dems *cannot govern* with current institutions. The fight cannot be avoided. Dems need to wield anti-corruption as both substance (tax the rich) and process (accountability + institutional change)

28.07.2025 17:55 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

This, more than anything else, is the truth that Andor is trying to convey: pro-democracy movements are just ordinary people summoning the strength and fortitude to mobilize for something greater than themselves.

And that is a deeply human thing to do.

24.07.2025 15:49 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Despite this, Andor offers a profound message about endurance against tyranny. Pro-democracy activism is difficult and often dangerous, but people do it. The courage and heroism of Andor’s protagonists isn’t unrealistic – it’s immediately recognizable to anyone familiar with pro-democracy movements.

24.07.2025 15:46 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

3. Movements take time.

The rebellion in Andor unfolds over many years. In the real world, the average maximalist nonviolent campaign takes over three years to succeed (and armed rebellions over a decade). Unfortunately, there is rarely a quick fix to tyranny – movement building takes time.

24.07.2025 15:44 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

2. Nonviolence and violence overlap.

As in Andor, many nonviolent movements have violent fringes or occur alongside armed rebellions. As a result, it can be hard for activists to distinguish themselves as peaceful, and opponents slander movements as violent to depress their public support.

24.07.2025 15:42 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

1. Autocrats are adapting.

In Andor, β€œThe Empire” relies on violent repression, but modern autocrats have learned to use other, more effective tools: administrative or quasi-legal repression, information control, and improved surveillance + preemptive suppression of organized civic mobilization.

24.07.2025 15:37 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Ok, here's a 2 minute summary: in this piece, I try to use ANDOR as a way to illuminate several β€œhard truths” that many nonviolent pro-democracy movements face:

24.07.2025 15:35 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Look, I know we rag on the Democrats' media outreach all the time, but this was genuinely a Good Post that has not gotten nearly enough credit

24.07.2025 14:47 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Exactly. Institutions need to be held accountable by a public that expresses absolutely zero tolerance for acquiescence to fascism -- that's the only way the other ones are going to find a spine for the next three years.

24.07.2025 02:32 β€” πŸ‘ 5    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Don't worry, the New York Times assures us that Trump has put this one to bed

23.07.2025 19:53 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
β€˜Andor’ Can Teach Us a Lot About Nonviolent Resistance, Too Andor is quickly becoming canon for experts on insurgencies and armed rebellions. But it has a lot to say about nonviolent civil resistance, too.

Today, I wrote for @wpr.bsky.social on Andor and its lessons for nonviolent resistance.

Andor is truly a masterpiece, and my writing can't do it justice. Still, I hope you find as much inspiration in the show (and this commentary) as I did!

23.07.2025 19:05 β€” πŸ‘ 28    πŸ” 7    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 2

Trump is in zugzwang: every move he makes on Epstein only fuels the scandal, because the only exculpatory move (true transparency) would incriminate him.

22.07.2025 17:33 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Yes, totally fair. The ICE secret police aren't just going to twiddle their thumbs, and Dems can't just assume that thermostatic politics means they'll win in 2026 / 2028 without a compelling, affirmative agenda.

21.07.2025 20:13 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Here's where I land on that:

1) It's tough to systematically rig elections. Much harder than all the other corrupt shit they're doing.

2) Ham-fisted GOP electoral manipulation would help to legitimize nationwide election reforms (which need to be a core plank of the Dems 2029 agenda, anyways)

21.07.2025 19:08 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

It's #2.

The GOP knows that old guard Dems lack the stomach to punish norm violations. They think they'll get away with it. And for now, they're right!

But nothing lasts forever. The Dem base wants to punish fascist GOP elites, and they will vote for candidates who promise to make the GOP pay.

21.07.2025 18:09 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Every day. It’s just unbeatable.

18.07.2025 13:25 β€” πŸ‘ 7    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

But here's the kicker: he should run as the Republican.

18.07.2025 02:21 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

We do not want displays of bipartisan unity. We want to hear that the entire corrupt GOP elite will rue the day they sold our democracy up the river.

Dems who insist on stupid shit like are just helping their GOP colleagues feel better about carrying water for fascism.

17.07.2025 17:23 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

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