Philippe Lagassé

A likely scenario:

PMO: We're not getting involved in any way.

CAF: (looking up for scenario planning)....Um, Prime Minister, we might hypothetically in the extreme need to do x, y, z to address second order consequences in the region.

PMO: Ah.

(cough)

HMS Dragon: UK to send Royal Navy warship to Cyprus, Starmer confirms The prime minister said the "UK is fully committed to the security of Cyprus and British military personnel based" on RAF Akrotiri.

What pray tell might this look like?

www.bbc.com/news/article...

Starmer: We're not joining the US/Israeli war, but we are deploying forces to protect UK citizens and assist 10 regional allies who are affected.

Cdn Bluesky: The UK is joining the American war!

Our new podcast episode dropped: on #BattleRhythm @profwhw.bsky.social and I discuss the Iran war and also the fight between a tech company and the Pentagon over the use of their AI and then @plagasse.bsky.social Interviews LTG Boivan who runs all CAF ops cdsn.substack.com/p/episode-41...

Note as well the RCN's role in region in 1990-1991 and 2001-2002.

You understand that allied countries have ships and depend on shipping, right?

So, back to the navy.

One of the RCN roles is to defend sea lines of communication. Those sea lines keep the global
economy going.

It would be unwise to categorically rule out a role for the RCN in protecting allied shipping in the Gulf and Indian Ocean.

Canada's only ally in the world is the United States?

If you're worried that we're going to send CF-18s there or whatever, that would be tremendously complicated. And even then, if you're ruling out offensive roles, their utility would be limited.

If asked

The likeliest scenario for a very hypothetical Canadian involvement would be a navy task group to help protect shipping in the Gulf.

You asked about Greece and Turkey. The mission was the solution to two NATO allies in a conflict. If you know about it, perhaps it's worth revising to contention that we haven't looked at ways of addressing their situation.

You may have heard about Canada's peacekeeping mission to Cyprus that's been ongoing since 1964 and has attempted to keep these two apart.

What do we want? Steady alliances and a rules-based order!

So we defend our allies in accordance with international law, right? No!

I love this place.

You don't always need Article 5 to help defend an ally.

You can assist an ally if they ask.

Turkey is a NATO ally, for example.

Yes. Turkey is a NATO ally and could easily be targeted.

Turkey? NATO ally.

thehill.com/policy/defen...

He's saying we're not going to participate in offensive actions against Iran, but might need to defend our allies.

Chill, people.

Be it resolved that Prime Minister Carney's government is a government like any other, weighed down by inevitable inconsistencies, internal disagreements and bureaucratic politics, and intractable trade-offs.

Since writing that post, I have it on good authority that the RCN wouldn't really move any boats between the coasts, which makes the mixed fleet option much more plausible.

With a mixed submarine fleet back on the table, here's my take on the idea from September:

philippelagasse.substack.com/p/two-types-...

That said, 15% can matter a lot if the rest of the scores are close!

No new auto plants but here’s what else Germany and South Korea are offering in their submarine bids Both Germany’s TKMS and South Korea’s Hanwha submitted their final bids to win a lucrative contract to build Canada’s next generation of submarines ahead of the March 2 deadline.

Worth noting the evaluation criteria for CPSP:

Capability and acquisition cost will only count for 35%.

The real money will be in sustainment, which explains why it ranks so high (50%).

All those economics partnerships will only count for 15%.

www.ctvnews.ca/politics/art...

I think bluesky would be roughly 300% better if people here were capable of reading “this is an assessment of the empirical reality of a situation” without assuming it comes with an implicit “and therefore I endorse the reality of that situation”

🤷🏻‍♂️

YouTube video by Dale Smith On the Defence Industrial Strategy

Now in wide release, my latest YouTube episode where @plagasse.bsky.social and I talk about what the government has laid out with their Defence Industrial Strategy. #cdnpoli

On the Defence Industrial Strategy | Dale Smith aka @journo_dale Get more from Dale Smith aka @journo_dale on Patreon

New episodes released early for C$7+ subscribers.
This week I'm with @plagasse.bsky.social to delve into the Defence Industrial Strategy. #cdnpoli

Yes, Canada should help Europe defend Greenland. But this is why it won’t be enough to protect us from America Canada's approach must include defending itself from America's "help."

Good day to re-read these @plagasse.bsky.social pieces on Defence Against Help

Where a large power starts claiming a smaller country is failing and can’t manage its own affairs, so the large power must step in under the guise of ‘help’

ras-nsa.ca/canada-must-...

www.thestar.com/opinion/cont...