GEO-POWER-EU

How are the 🇪🇺🇺🇸🇷🇺🇨🇳🇹🇷 perceived across the WB & the EaP?
Our latest study reveals clear regional contrasts. While the 🇪🇺, 🇺🇸, and 🇷🇺 dominate online debates, 🇨🇳 and especially 🇹🇷 show distinct, & in some cases more favourable — sentiment patterns, particularly in EaP countries.
🔗 bit.ly/4aF06rx

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🔎 Read more: bit.ly/4aRrmBM
🎥 Watch the recording: bit.ly/4qZtqxz

5/ Assoc. Prof. Iryna Maksymenko (Odesa I. I. Mechnikov National University) noted that the 2020 policy revision failed to address core weaknesses. The discussion concluded that without a stronger security dimension and greater differentiation, the EaP risks losing strategic coherence.

4/ Prof. Olga Brusylovska (Odesa I. I. Mechnikov National University) outlined key achievements since 2009, Association Agreements, DCFTAs, and visa liberalisations 🇺🇦🇲🇩🇬🇪, but stressed persistent governance gaps and structural limits.

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Asuman Kübra Baș (European Neighborhood Council) outlined the core assumptions and strategic objectives of the GEO-POWER-EU project, situating the EaP report within its broader geopolitical framework.

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Opening the discussion, Kakha Gogolashvili (GFSIS) framed the central question of the EaP’s continued relevance. Alexandra Sabou (EaP Civil Society Forum) argued that while the EaP remains important, it has become increasingly fragmented due to diverging trajectories among partner countries.

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Is the EaP still strategically relevant in a region reshaped by 🇷🇺 war against 🇺🇦? On 19 Feb, EaP Civil Society Forum & #GEOPOWEREU co-hosted a webinar discussing the findings of GEO-POWER-EU report on relevance of the EaP (🔗 bit.ly/4b7W22Y)

*Featured Image: Wikimedia commons

📣New #GEOPOWEREU Case Study!
Research finds that disinformation in 🇧🇦 is largely homegrown and politically weaponised. In Republika Srpska, Milorad Dodik uses pro-🇷🇺 rhetoric to deflect corruption allegations and entrench illiberal rule.
🔗https://bit.ly/4aF8mGD

📣Don’t miss our report on foreign influence in the #WesternBalkans &the Associated Trio🔗 bit.ly/48rghX0
It explores how opaque, politically mediated deals turn foreign capital corrosive &how domestically produced disinformation shields vested interests
Watch Ass. Prof. Prelec explain: bit.ly/3Oxzb8d

Corrosive capital flows through an ecosystem of:
• foreign sponsors (states & firms)
• transnational enablers (law firms, consultants, offshore actors)
• domestic elites (official decision-takers and informal decison-makers)
At the centre: patrons.

Featured image: EGIL

📣 New GEO-POWER-EU Case Study 👉🏽🇷🇸 Regime’s Fight Against the “Color Revolution”
Our research shows how domestic elites use #disinformation to suppress opposition&shape foreign influence narratives, embedding this in state #media structures — esp. during the 2024–25 protests.
🔗 bit.ly/4rTETja

Featured image: CREST

📣 New #GEOPOWEREU Report
Our case study explores how narratives about the EU in Ukraine evolved from the Euromaidan to the 🇷🇺 invasion of 🇺🇦, and how the country strengthened resilience through reforms, fact-checking & media literacy.

🔗 bit.ly/3ZzGHlp

📄 Read the report: shorturl.at/mk5F9

📣 Is the Eastern Partnership still relevant in today’s geopolitical landscape?
Join our online webinar, organised by @eapcsf in partnership with #GEOPOWEREU, on rethinking EU🇪🇺–EaP relations amid war in🇺🇦 & strategic competition.
🗓️ 19 Feb | ⏰ 12:00–13:00 CET
🔗 Register: bit.ly/3ZvgSTv

📣 Dr  Valery Perry (DPC) returned to Connections Podcast with Evan Dawson to unpack “What American action in Venezuela means for democracy abroad.” She breaks down 🇺🇸 power dynamics, rising spheres of influence, and why 🇪🇺 must rethink alliances 🎧 Tune in: bit.ly/3M2Nf97

We apply Jessop’s & Hay’s strategic-relational approach to highlight the underexamined agency, reflexivity & strategic-mindedness of applicant country leaders in accession negotiations & to introduce the term “reversed conditionality” to the debate. 2/2
@geopower-eu.bsky.social, @biepag.bsky.social

Check the report - it explores foreign influence, corrosive capital, and disinformation in the Western Balkans and the associated TRIO countries, unpacking how economic power intersects with politics, media, and democratic processes

@geopower-eu.bsky.social

Check the link in our bio!

New Article by GEO-POWER-EU PI Prof. Nikolaos Tzifakis on EU Enlargement and "Reversed Conditionality" in the Western Balkans - Geo Power New Article by GEO-POWER-EU PI Prof. Nikolaos Tzifakis on EU Enlargement and “Reversed Conditionality” in the Western Balkans GEO-POWER-EU PI Prof. Nikolaos Tzifakis, together with Eleni Vasdoka, has ...

In the #WesternBalkans, governing elites have repeatedly attempted to make the EU dilute its accession conditions by presenting EU institutions with preferred policy dilemmas, a practice termed “reversed conditionality.”
A @geopower-eu.bsky.social article.
geo-power.eu/publications...

*Featured image: Deutsche Welle, Image: picture-alliance/dpa/B. von Jutrczenka

📣New publication alert!
Our PI Prof. @tzifakis.bsky.social has published a new co-authored article on EU enlargement and “reversed conditionality” in the Western Balkans.
Read it open access here: bit.ly/4r0WhTl

*Featured Image: Waterfront project in Belgrade| Photo: Dávid Huszár | Source: Népszava

📰 #GEOPOWEREU researcher Dr. @tenaprelec (University of Rijeka & BiEPAG) spoke to Hungarian daily @nepszava about GEO-POWER-EU research on corrosive capital in the Western Balkans and Associated Trio and how “mini-Dubai” projects bypass rules and erode the rule of law.
🔗: bit.ly/4rrhIwr

7/ In response, report situates enlargement within a wider strategic frame for the 🇦🇱🇧🇦🇽🇰🇷🇸🇲🇪🇲🇰 🇺🇦🇲🇩🇬🇪:
🔹 adapt enlargement to geopolitical realities
🔹reassess the EaP
🔹account for external actors
🔹strengthen EU strategic & security capacity
Read the report here🔗 shorturl.at/Nexwh

6/ Geopolitics further deepens perceptions of unequal treatment.
Flexibility is experienced as selective, scrutiny as asymmetrical, and partial integration as ambiguous. As a result, fairness, rather than merit alone, moves to the centre of the enlargement debate.

5/ Politicisation, the report finds, is no longer episodic but systemic.
🔹 bilateral disputes increasingly structure accession paths
🔹 unanimity enables prolonged blockage
🔹 “good neighbourly relations” replace measurable criteria
🔹predictability continues to weaken.

4/ Crucially, gaps stem from opacity rather than opposition. Support for 🇪🇺 membership remains strong, but what is contested is how the process works: sequencing appears unclear 🔀, benchmarks seem to shift 🔄, and decisions are often perceived as detached from reform performance.

3/ Over time, prolonged candidacy reshapes how the process is perceived.
🔹 membership feels distant rather than approaching
🔹 reforms appear decoupled from political reward
🔹 engagement gives way to fatigue and scepticism
🔹 the transformative narrative weakens.📉

2/ The report finds that enlargement is lived as a procedural movement without strategic clarity.
❓ Negotiations advance, chapters open, benchmarks multiply, but elites struggle to see where the process leads, on what terms, and with what political outcome.

Image: The Guardian

Image: The New Union Post

1/ 🧵How enlargement can be seen as part of a coherent, multidimensional EU strategy, rather than just a standalone process?
Our findings from our report on perceptual gap shows how candidates experience the enlargement process today 👇

📢 Our sister project @reunir.bsky.social released a new paper on Russian anti-EU narratives in Georgia & their impact on public opinion and policy.
📄 lnkd.in/dRifnzi5

7/ Based on findings, the report recommends:
🔹expanding the defence industrial base
🔹linking defence to economic security
🔹 strengthening intelligence sharing,
🔹 aligning enlargement with EU defence standards.
Read full report, here: 🔗 bit.ly/4mjb48I

6/ The development of these roles reflects political choices, not institutional failure.
While 🇷🇺 is widely recognised as the primary threat, regional priorities differ, and risk tolerances vary, limiting agreement on tasks, levels of autonomy, and the use of military force.