Nicholas Brown

SAVITA SUBRAMANIAN, BOFA SECURITIES HEAD OF US EQUITY & QUANTITATIVE STRATEGY:

"We thought the administration was going to be focused on affordability and quelling inflation, and that seems to be the opposite of what's actually happening."

Gas Prices Have Jumped The national average price of a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline has climbed to its highest level since the summer of 2024. Though prices are highest on the West Coast, they rose the most in states...

(WSJ) - The national average price of a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline has climbed to its highest level since the summer of 2024.

#OOTT

APOLLO: “Consumer spending data from the New York Fed shows a clear K-shaped pattern where growth has been faster for high-income households than low-income households. The stronger growth in consumer spending for high-income households is driven by the K-shaped growth in wages and wealth.”

BESPOKE: “.. Monday is set to be the 4th opening gap down of 1%+ for US stocks in the six trading days since Operation Epic Fury began.”

War disruptions may send oil to $150 to $200 a barrel. Here's my advice for stock investors In his Sunday column for Investing Club subscribers, Jim Cramer explains how investors should navigate a continued surge in oil prices.

JIM CRAMER: "War disruptions may send oil to $150 to $200 a barrel."

@cnbc.com #OOTT

Israeli ambassador to US declines to rule out putting boots on the ground in Iran The ambassador said Israel would prefer to see Iranians lead their own revolution against the ruling regime.

(Politico) - Israel’s ambassador to the United States on Sunday declined to rule out the possibility of deploying Israeli troops to Iran as the country’s joint military operation with the U.S. continues to bombard Tehran.

SCHUMER: "Today, I demanded Trump release oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve IMMEDIATELY to bring relief to Americans at the pump."

Wall Street starting to put some numbers on airlines.

MELIUS: “.. raising our 2026 jet fuel forecast 9% and .. lowering our net income by 10%.

.. We would note that during the Russia / Ukraine war it took 12 days for oil to peak at nearly $130 / bbl, and 148 days to retreat to prior levels.”

GOLDMAN: "If oil prices increase by $10 and remain elevated for three months, U.S. year-over-year headline CPI inflation would likely rise from 2.4% in January to 3% in May"

#OOTT

Energy prices will fall when U.S. destroys Iran's ability to attack tankers in Strait of Hormuz: Wright Gas prices have spiked in the U.S. as oil has jumped to over $90 since the war began in Iran.

#OOTT | Energy prices will fall when U.S. destroys Iran’s ability to attack tankers in Strait of Hormuz: Wright

JPM: "If the oil supply shock is sustained, we think each 10% increase in oil prices should translate to a ~10bp gain in headline PCE inflation and a 15-20bp drag on GDP growth."

J.P. Morgan: “The risk remains for a much larger and more sustained increase in oil prices should disruptions to supply persist. In that case, while the economic impact would appear stagflationary, we would expect the Fed to focus on the hit to activity.”

Thinking of Art Cashin, who would have turned 85 today.

#RIP

NYMEX WTI crude oil has settled... best week on record +35% $CL_F $USO

TRUMP:

U.S. DEFENSE COMPANIES AGREED TO QUADRUPLE PRODUCTION OF EXQUISITE CLASS WEAPONRY

CEOS OF BAE SYSTEMS, $BA, $HON AEROSPACE, $LHX, $LMT, $NOC, $RTX ATTENDED

FOLLOW-UP MEETING WITH DEFENSE MANUFACTURING CEOS SCHEDULED IN TWO MONTHS

* TRUMP WILL VISIT OHIO NEXT WEEK: WHITE HOUSE ON X

* TRUMP TO TOUT LOWER DRUG PRICES IN OHIO: WHITE HOUSE

* EXISTING PLANS FOR ORACLE'S DATA CENTER PROJECT WITH OPΕΝΑΙ REMAIN ON TRACK - CNBC CITING SOURCE

$ORCL

Exclusive: US judge to meet parties on Trump-tariff refunds in closed-door 'settlement conference' A U.S. judge will meet behind closed doors with government lawyers on Friday seeking to hammer out a process to refund up to $166 billion in illegally ​collected tariffs, a meeting a court official de...

(Reuters) - A U.S. judge will meet behind closed doors with government lawyers on Friday seeking to hammer out a process to refund up to $166 billion in illegally ​collected tariffs, a meeting a court official described as a "settlement conference."

And...

*META IN DISCUSSION WITH DEVELOPER CRUSOE TO LEASE EXPANDED SITE

Fed’s Goolsbee Warns on Stagflation Risks Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said Friday that a sustained rise in the unemployment rate on top of an oil-price shock would create "exactly the kind of stagflationary environment that's as unc...

GOOLSBEE: "If it is a one-time increase in the level of the price, there will be damage. You will see it in inflation. That's a little different than if we get a series of them piled one on another, and it does dovetail—energy prices with what's going to happen with tariffs.."

@wsj.com

But...

* META IN DISCUSSION WITH DEVELOPER CRUSOE TO LEASE EXPANDED SITE

$META

Number of S&P 500 Earnings Calls Citing "Tariffs":

* 455 (Q1 2025)
* 267 (Q3 2025)
* 220 (Q4 2025)

Amazon says Anthropic’s Claude still OK for AWS customers to use outside defense work Amazon joined Microsoft and Google in continue to offer Anthropic's Claude AI technology to customers after the Pentagon deemed it a "supply chain risk."

$AMZN | Amazon Says Anthropic’s Claude Still OK For AWS Customers To Use Outside Defense Work - CNBC

* ORACLE AND OPENAI END PLANS TO EXPAND TEXAS DATA CENTER SITE

$ORCL

Number of S&P 500 Earnings Calls Citing “Tariffs” Declined for 3rd Straight Quarter @factset

WTI oil vs. average gasoline prices:

(h/t Kevin Gordon) #OOTT

BESPOKE: "Oil is up 34.3% this week, which would be its biggest weekly change since at least 1985."

#OOTT

JP Morgan on Trump’s Iran war: “Oil prices have risen nearly 35% from the past year's average.. Each sustained 10% price increase could yield a 10bp increase in headline inflation but little effect on core … along with a 15-20bp hit to GDP, though these estimates have wide uncertainty bands.”

CBP Says Tariff Refund System Will Be Operational in 45 Days Customs and Border Protection said it would work on a streamlined system for refund payments rather than manually processing individual tariff requests.

CBP Says Tariff Refund System Will Be Operational In 45 Days - WSJ

#OOTT | Trump admin announces $20 billion reinsurance program for oil tankers during Iran war - CNBC