Focaldata

Our take on the Canadian election from @focaldata.bsky.social + @politico.com. Liberals ahead by 3 pts which is likely to translate into a small majority. Trump has had a material effect. One pause for thought. “Wisdom of the crowds” has a 4 point Conservative lead. www.politico.com/news/2025/04...

🇨🇦🧵 Quick thread on some of our findings ahead of today's Canadian election.

Our headline results put the Liberals ahead, but we've uncovered evidence that the Conservatives may have won the election (or at least the most seats) if Trump had not won in November.

Welcome! You are invited to join a webinar: The Focaldata Briefing: Data perspectives on the state of Europe . After registering, you will receive a confirmation email about joining the webinar. Join us on Thursday 13th March for an expert discussion of our pan-European, cross-cutting polling on defence, immigration, welfare and economic growth. With Europe navigating geopolitical turbulence ...

We'll have more data and a full write-up of the poll this week. In the meantime, you can sign up to next Thursday's webinar with @jameskanag.bsky.social and @anandmenon.bsky.social, covering data perspectives on the state of Europe, here: zoom.us/webinar/regi...

Asked to rate countries and organisations on a scale between ally and enemy, just 28% of voters across the three countries saw the United States as an ally (🇬🇧 39%, 🇫🇷 23%, 🇩🇪 22%).

Brits see Australia, Canada and Ireland as the country's biggest allies.

Elon Musk has called on the US to leave NATO, but how might Europeans vote in a hypothetical NATO referendum?

Results excluding undecideds:
🇬🇧 Remain in NATO 84%, Leave NATO 16%
🇩🇪 Remain 81%, Leave 19%
🇫🇷 Remain 70%, Leave 30%

Opposition to Ukraine aid is growing across France and Germany, with 44% in the former and 41% in the latter now wanting to cut back on financial support. In the UK, however, support remains stronger, with 43% wanting to maintain current aid levels.

Even before Trump & Vance's actions over the last few days, a plurality of voters in the three countries wanted closer ties with European allies on foreign policy (as opposed to the United States or going it alone).

Support for European collaboration is highest in Germany (52%).

46% of Brits favour an increase in defence spending, even if this means higher taxes or cuts to other areas. This figure is similar in Germany (47%) but falls to just 34% in France.

Yesterday, we presented some exclusive findings from a European survey (covering 🇫🇷🇩🇪🇬🇧) at the CEPS Ideas Lab in Brussels.

With defence and security in the news, here are our key findings on that particular topic... 🧵

Bi_Focal #21: Four lessons from a year in research Explore key lessons from 2024, including innovations in opinion polling, demographic shifts, and the rise of zero-sum thinking. Learn how we expect MRP, 'wisdom of the crowds,' and qualitative researc...

Bi_Focal 21: Four lessons from a year in research

www.focaldata.com/blog/bi-foca...

Bi_Focal #20: Is there an anti-growth coalition in Britain? With the Labour government’s focus on increasing economic growth, in this blog post we examine whether there actually is (in Liz Truss’s words) an ‘anti-growth coalition’ within public opinion and whe...

Our latest Bi_Focal blog looks at views on economic growth and finds that they form a distinct dimension of political beliefs, separate from traditional left-right economic or liberal-conservative cultural divides.

Read it here 👇
www.focaldata.com/blog/bi-foca...