🇺🇸 First Focaldata midterms polling of 2026
House of Representatives congressional vote
All adults
🔵 Democrats: 42%
🔴 Republicans: 38%
Registered voters
🔵 Democrats: 46%
🔴 Republicans: 42%
Likely voters
🔵 Democrats: 51%
🔴 Republicans: 44%
www.focaldata.com/blog/cost-of...
Data tables:
t.co/o5cmY5Vr7h
NEW: Westminster voting intention
🟣 RFM: 26% (-3)
🔴 LAB: 21% (+1)
🔵 CON: 20% (+2)
🟠 LDM: 14% (+1)
🟢 GRN: 10% (-2)
16-19 Jan, 1,585 respondents (GB)
Changes with 26-28 Nov
We've just released our new white paper, 'Britain's Digital Future: Why digital sovereignty could become the next major political divide'
Download it here: www.focaldata.com/blog/britain...
Our take on the Canadian election from @focaldata.bsky.social + @politico.com. Liberals ahead by 3 pts which is likely to translate into a small majority. Trump has had a material effect. One pause for thought. “Wisdom of the crowds” has a 4 point Conservative lead. www.politico.com/news/2025/04...
26.04.2025 18:41 — 👍 3 🔁 1 💬 1 📌 0
🇨🇦🧵 Quick thread on some of our findings ahead of today's Canadian election.
Our headline results put the Liberals ahead, but we've uncovered evidence that the Conservatives may have won the election (or at least the most seats) if Trump had not won in November.
We'll have more data and a full write-up of the poll this week. In the meantime, you can sign up to next Thursday's webinar with @jameskanag.bsky.social and @anandmenon.bsky.social, covering data perspectives on the state of Europe, here: zoom.us/webinar/regi...
04.03.2025 15:14 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
Asked to rate countries and organisations on a scale between ally and enemy, just 28% of voters across the three countries saw the United States as an ally (🇬🇧 39%, 🇫🇷 23%, 🇩🇪 22%).
Brits see Australia, Canada and Ireland as the country's biggest allies.
Elon Musk has called on the US to leave NATO, but how might Europeans vote in a hypothetical NATO referendum?
Results excluding undecideds:
🇬🇧 Remain in NATO 84%, Leave NATO 16%
🇩🇪 Remain 81%, Leave 19%
🇫🇷 Remain 70%, Leave 30%
Opposition to Ukraine aid is growing across France and Germany, with 44% in the former and 41% in the latter now wanting to cut back on financial support. In the UK, however, support remains stronger, with 43% wanting to maintain current aid levels.
04.03.2025 15:14 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
Even before Trump & Vance's actions over the last few days, a plurality of voters in the three countries wanted closer ties with European allies on foreign policy (as opposed to the United States or going it alone).
Support for European collaboration is highest in Germany (52%).
46% of Brits favour an increase in defence spending, even if this means higher taxes or cuts to other areas. This figure is similar in Germany (47%) but falls to just 34% in France.
04.03.2025 15:14 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
Yesterday, we presented some exclusive findings from a European survey (covering 🇫🇷🇩🇪🇬🇧) at the CEPS Ideas Lab in Brussels.
With defence and security in the news, here are our key findings on that particular topic... 🧵
Bi_Focal 21: Four lessons from a year in research
www.focaldata.com/blog/bi-foca...
Our latest Bi_Focal blog looks at views on economic growth and finds that they form a distinct dimension of political beliefs, separate from traditional left-right economic or liberal-conservative cultural divides.
Read it here 👇
www.focaldata.com/blog/bi-foca...
