@econberger.bsky.social
Workforce Economist in Residence at Guild; Senior Fellow at the Burning Glass Institute. I tweet a lot about labor markets, macro, and (sorry) music! Tweets represent my own views.
Adam, this is like saying “my biggest weakness is I care too much” 🤣
22.10.2025 19:39 — 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0How you differentiate bandwagon vs true labor market data fans: “Can you tell me what your favorite BLSdotgov data table is?”
(FTR, tables A-8a and A-11 are the correct answers to this question)
2/ Lots of good stuff in the report, but one thing that stuck out to me: The Great Stay (falling inter-firm turnover) hasn't been offset by an increase in internal mobility (despite a lot of brave talk on this front).
People are more "stuck" than they've been in a long time.
1/ The Talent Resilience Index is a cool new report by my partners at @guildeducation.bsky.social, in partnership with
@lightcast.bsky.social , measuring resilience in the US workforce:
guild.com/report/talen...
"candy corn reserves" is one of the most disgusting things I have ever heard of
21.10.2025 18:21 — 👍 3 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0Btw one lesson is 5.5 year old recollections of a paper you really liked might be a little foggy :)
21.10.2025 16:17 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0Key error on my part is they are actually (appropriately) using the change in ratios, not the change in counts. Thanks @skandaamarnath.bsky.social !
21.10.2025 15:51 — 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
Deleted this thread because I was wrong about their proposed GLI!
21.10.2025 15:48 — 👍 9 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
The best late Mingus youtu.be/cNf7w_-72xg?...
21.10.2025 13:43 — 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0Excited to attend the @guildeducation.bsky.social 2025 Opportunity Summit! If you’re here say hi!
guild.com/opportunity-...
What I told @jdlahart.bsky.social at @wsj.com about the latest jobless claims data:
It shows us “some small increase in distress in the overall labor market that’s concentrated mostly in the federal workforce.”
The AI generated proposed community notes I’ve seen aren’t perfect, but a lot of them are good and generally better than I would have expected! Certainly not worse than the average human-generated proposed note (or counter-note)
20.10.2025 13:04 — 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0It’s been long enough since 2009 that I can once again break a taboo and say “Greenspan was good”
19.10.2025 00:57 — 👍 8 🔁 0 💬 3 📌 0The Erdos Problem exchanges on the other site are interesting.
the overhype angle on this story is entertaining of course, but it is also a great example of “AI as a useful research assistant /intern”
I didn’t realize it’s the bicentennial of the OG LatAm financial crisis. What a way to celebrate!
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_o...
If you make a NFT of an Argentine Peso, and the Peso itself gets destroyed in a massive devaluation, you still have the same asset.
Because the token still exists and is in limited supply just as before. Nothing has changed.
What NFT is doing to the concept of Peso, few understand
Your cousin with a bad credit history after you lend him $20K and he gives you $20K in IOUs: “it’s a currency swap”
17.10.2025 22:17 — 👍 55 🔁 11 💬 1 📌 1“The $20B to Argentina is a currency swap not a grant” is one of those statements that’s true but also masks that US taxpayers are likely to lose money on the transaction, possible a lot of money
17.10.2025 22:16 — 👍 34 🔁 8 💬 2 📌 2
Late on a Friday afternoon, but here's my take on the past week's labor market data... it looks OK. Not good, not terrible, some pockets of weakness.
Link: macromostly.substack.com/p/high-frequ...
I don’t know anything about politics. But I find it difficult to believe the shutdown ends without those being restored?
17.10.2025 19:32 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0Yeah. These pauses are OK if they last a short period of time but what if we’re still in peak holiday shopping season and folks aren’t getting paychecks…
17.10.2025 19:24 — 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 2 📌 0I wrote this two weeks ago.
Traders on @kalshiofficial.bsky.social now expect a shutdown lasting well into November.
At some point some economic damage becomes irreversible. People miss loan payments, businesses shut down. I don't know how long that takes but I hope we don't find out.
This pair of verses, as recorded, is a pinnacle of 20th century music
17.10.2025 16:41 — 👍 4 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 07/ ok, that's it for now. I'll be sending a more thorough analysis in the substack tmw!
17.10.2025 00:00 — 👍 4 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
6/ While the aggregate IC data look OK for now, the most sensitive states in terms of ripple effects are showing clear increases. Not just DC - also VA, MD, and even HI. Worrisome.
Note this data excludes the federal government...
5/ Federal worker initial claims are now way higher than they were during the DOGE cutbacks. Remember, these are not counted in the regular initial/continuing claims series.
Federal worker CC have also increased a little (sorry for the dual axes) but bigger jumps ahead
4/ here's CC Y/Y
16.10.2025 23:58 — 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
3/ Continuing claims (1st shutdown data pt) look good compared to 2024 (which again, is probably mild flattery from Helene); I don't see any aggregate deterioration relative to 2023 either.
16.10.2025 23:57 — 👍 3 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
2/ In a few weeks we'll get a clean read on the aggregate IC number (I'll talk about the state level data shortly)
16.10.2025 23:56 — 👍 4 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
Claims thread:
1/ A few states are still missing (I imputed them), but my estimate is initial claims was ~217K. Lower than last week, lower than 2024 (Hurricane Helene aftermath), higher than 2023.
