Oren Samet

That context leaves me less critical of the NUG's performance and less pessimistic about the opposition's longer-term prospects than some quoted in the NYT article above (though I wouldn't say I'm an optimist).

Being in opposition is just *hard* and the long game is far from played out in Myanmar

Myanmar's previous gov-in-exile, the National Coalition Government of the Union of Burma (NCGUB), faced a similar trajectory in the 1990s and 2000s. Same goes for parallel government entities formed in Belarus, Venezuela, and elsewhere

3/

A sobering reality is that the efficacy of opposition initiatives like these tends to erode over time. Absent game-changing successes, internal criticism mounts and foreign partners lose faith

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Years After Coup, Myanmar’s Government in Exile Teeters on Irrelevance

Five years on from the coup that toppled Myanmar’s civilian government, the National Unity Government (NUG) is struggling to maintain relevance.

It reflects a challenge that many other oppositions have faced, and one that's at the core of my current research

🧵 1/

www.nytimes.com/2026/02/01/w...

The State Dept continuing to advance a new “values-based” foreign policy. Deploying targeted sanctions against individuals for highly ideological reasons.

These are the type of sanctions that used to be levied against rights abusers. Now for European internet regulators

New development in the Trump admin effort to exert federal control over voter rolls. As I wrote a few months ago (see 🧵 below), since the admin’s legal case is weak, the biggest concern here is voluntary compliance by GOP-controlled states. And that’s exactly what we see happening now

Challenging Autocrats Abroad: Opposition Parties on the International

Opposition parties often look abroad for leverage.

CDDRL's Einstein-Moos Postdoctoral Fellow Oren Samet explained how “opposition diplomacy” draws attention to repression and shapes international pressure, while exposing challengers to real risks.

RA Position!
@ozlemtuncel.bsky.social and @osamet.bsky.social are looking for support for a project on opposition coalitions in autocracies. If you are
- interested in opposition politics and electoral dynamics, and
- familiar with data collection
apply by Dec 31: gsu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_...

Trump’s war on democracy is failing And it’s his own fault.

“A breakdown in state capacity... is very bad. And paradoxically… that may be the thing that is saving democracy”

Pleased to be quoted in this thought-provoking new piece from @zackbeauchamp.bsky.social on the limits of Trump's capacity to erode US democracy

www.vox.com/politics/472...

‼️⚠️Research Assistant Position!
@osamet.bsky.social and I are looking for support for a project on opposition coalitions in autocracies. If you are
✅interested in opposition politics and electoral dynamics
✅familiar with data collection
Then, please apply here: gsu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_...

US ends temporary status for Myanmar nationals, cites upcoming elections as 'progress'

Cruel, idiotic, with absolutely no upside. Trump admin living in fantasy land on Myanmar
www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...

America still has a values-based foreign policy
foreignpolicy.com/2025/05/27/u...

Trump threatens to cut US aid to Argentina if Milei loses election US president says ‘we will not be generous’ if leader fails to win key midterms after promising $20bn to prop up struggling economy

US intervening directly in a foreign country's politics in a way that conflicts with Trump's supposed "transactionalism." We continue to have a "values-based" foreign policy, just with a different inflection www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...

There is still *one day* left to post a public comment in response to this proposed regulation. You can do so here: www.federalregister.gov/documents/20... either under your name (as I did) or anonymously.

There are currently more than 17,000 comments - it's a lot, but still room for more!

Trump-pledged support for Argentina stirs anger among Republicans Powerful agriculture groups and their Republican allies in Congress are sounding alarms about the deal.

"...particularly for an administration that has eschewed large foreign interventions"

I really wish reporters would stop credulously repeating this claim - it doesn't hold up when you actually look at this admin's foreign policy (Brazil, Europe, Iran, now Argentina, you name it!)

Isn’t this extremely blatantly illegal and unenforceable? H1B fees are set by Congressional statute. I’m confused why all the reporting treats this as a real thing.

There are advantages to keeping the locus of debate more local. Election admin has become more politicized in recent years but not as much as most other issues. And people trust their local officials. Congressional hearings could polarize it further. But, as always, tough to know the right strategy

Thanks for sharing the paywall-free link! The good news here is that most election officials (from both parties) have balked at these requests for obvious reasons. And it is going to be hard for them to really mess with the existing infrastructure. Doesn’t mean they can’t try and seed doubts tho!

Correct. I think it’s smart for Democrats in Congress to remain engaged with a large range of constituencies while still pushing for a shutdown as leverage with the administration. That doesn’t seem contradictory at all

Alternative way of looking at this: if you are interested in promoting elite splits in the regime and its support network, this very much could be the way…

Trump Administration Quietly Seeks to Build National Voter Roll

One of the greatest safeguards for American democracy (in contrast with other backsliding cases) is the decentralized nature of its election infrastructure, in the hands of states/localities. The Trump administration is trying to whittle that away. Alarming new report with some of the details:

This is a major escalation in the Hun dynasty's efforts to crush any opposition to its rule in #Cambodia. This new law allows the gov to arbitrarily revoke citizenship from anyone it deems to be "conspiring" against the state

A brief 🧵 on potential implications

I don’t understand the point of this comment. Is the suggestion that this is normal and acceptable? It’s also inaccurate re: US and very different rule of law contexts

I don’t really think this is a fair characterization. The number of times I’ve seen the US compared *by Americans* to 1930s Germany, or Peronist Argentina, or Orban’s Hungary…

There’s also the perils of over-indexing on others’ experiences. Providing historical context from the US is helpful!

This is the next step. Lower level defections apparently aren't enough. They want to aim higher, and this is part of the plan

Cambodia's regime is hardening. The road ahead for opposition becomes even more challenging

More opposition defections lift Cambodia’s ruling party ahead of July election Three opposition figures send hand-written apologies and pre-recorded videos to Hun Sen in recent days.

They have spent the past several years turning the screws to get former CNRP members to defect to the ruling party. It's worked to a large extent (1,000s of lower level officials have embraced the ruling party), but they still aren't satisfied

www.rfa.org/english/news...

The charges were bogus then, and they're bogus now. But the Kem Sokha case demonstrates the extent to which the regime is willing to wield this weapon

Cambodia: Opposition Leader Convicted on Bogus Charges The Phnom Penh municipal court on March 3, 2023, found the Cambodian political opposition leader Kem Sokha guilty of treason and sentenced him to a 27 year prison sentence, and indefinitely suspended ...

Charges of "treason" were the basis for arresting and convicting opposition leader Kem Sokha, and used as an excuse to dissolve his Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) in 2017

www.hrw.org/news/2023/03...

This makes for a dangerous combination. The gov will likely use this law to further turn the screws on opposition leaders like Sam Rainsy and others, potentially stripping them of citizenship outright or wielding the threat to try and control them

Two points of context are critical:

1) after years of crackdown, much of the remaining opposition is in exile, and many hold dual citizenship

2) The Cambodian regime has not been shy about weaponizing claims about "foreign conspiracies" and "treason" in the past