Rodrigo Orihuela

* Lutnick Says Tariff Pause on Phones, Computers Is Temporary

@bloomberg.com $AAPL $DELL

Gotta watch the Argentine market tomorrow. FX (ARS/USD) to be let to roam free in the 1,000 to 1,400 range. Test of tests.

Not entirely usual US President Trump’s administration clarified the 125% tax on imports from China was 145%. This increase will not shift demand patterns (it will cost US consumers more money). For investors, this rais...

Not entirely usual

30-year US bond yields rose the most since 1982. Equities fell. The dollar fell. Gold hit a record high. This is not, perhaps, entirely usual.

www.ubs.com/global/en/we...

#EconSky

From a client presentation hosted by JPM analyst Michael Cemblast and quoted by BBG “ People are being held accountable for their views and the things they say in ways that they probably shouldn’t be. So I’ve said most of what I wanted to say on this call-but not all of it.”

A quick note on Trump's new tariff plan. It's 10 percent across the board, 125 percent (!) on China. What's the effective tariff rate? Well, China was 13 percent of imports in 2024, so you might say .13*125+.87*10 = 24.95. But imports from China will fall, so how do we adjust it? 1/

Two ironies from yesterday for a country like Vietnam, which has a 90-day reprieve from a 46% rate, down to 10%. It has been under US pressure over diversion of Chinese goods via Vietnam. But (mutatis mutandis) 125% on China, 10% on Vietnam might raise the incentive even more.

5. Recession risks are still with us. According to prediction markets the chances of a 2025 recession fell from 68% this morning to 53% this afternoon.

That's a big risk.

4. During this pause, the United States will still have the highest tariffs in the industrialized world, perhaps 10-20 times that of most of our trading partners, and roughly ten times higher than it was before.

These are still at or above the Depression era Smoot-Hawley tariffs

3. The rationale for this policy keeps changing. Remember when it was all about bringing manufacturing home? (That was yesterday.) Now it's negotiating deals. Those are fundamentally in tension.

(I'm only going to build a factory in the US if tariffs are likely to persist.)

Biggest mistakes I'm seeing in early reporting (thread):

1. Tariffmageddon isn't over: Lotsa tariffs to account for, but the average tariff rate is only down around one quarter. So most of the pain of Liberation Day is still with us.

Reporter: “How much of this decision was driven by the bond market cratering overnight?”

Bessent: “This was driven by the president’s strategy.”

One week at America's largest exporter.

11th worst three-day performance of all time.

This entire thread makes for a fascinating read on the market going green at the open

US Emerges as Biggest Loser in Markets From Trump’s Tariffs Donald Trump’s shake-up of the global trading system is hurting US assets more than those in many of the big economies he has just slapped with additional tariffs.

“The narrative is moving from US exceptionalism to US alienation,” said Kok Hoong Wong, head of institutional equities sales trading at Maybank Securities in Singapore.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

GAM and Gramercy enter into Strategic Partnership for Emerging Market Debt Strategies We are one of the world’s leading independent, pure-play asset managers.

Congratulations to @mpaulmcnamara.bsky.social, the Methuselah of markets. Frankly it was borderline cruelty to keep him working so long beyond the natural lifespan of most humans. I’m glad he’ll now have time to enjoy his beloved Tottenham Hotspurs more often. www.gam.com/en/news-arti...

European defense sector, by % return today. Column 4 is a 9 day RSI showing how overbought most names are. Column 6 is % return ytd, we've come a long way in larger caps. the key takeaway here is that UK Small/Mid Caps are where the catch up trade is: ( #SRP.L,#CHG.L,#MSI.L,#AVON.L,#CHRT.L,#QQ.L)

That's brutal for, say, flights. If you have a ticket for "25 past midnight" how do you know which day? You can't memorise it, you need to look up the date.

yes, no true surprise

Leave markets, look at macro, France bsky.app/profile/zsch...

European reporting:

ABB: new buyback, strong order book
ROCHE: in-line, mid single digit growth outlook
SANOFI: in-line, launches €5bn buyback
NOKIA: beat on sales & operating profit
ST MICRO: in-line sales, margin misses, demand sluggish for industrial & automotive semis
BBVA: beat & €1bn buyback

Con esto de hoy:
“The National Rally will activate the censure vote unless of course there is a last minute miracle,” Bardella told RTL radio. “If Barnier changes his text between now and 3 p.m., but I’ve got little hope he’ll see the light given we’ve been ignored and scorned for several months.”

Fascinating thread. Then go to the Wikipedia page. Then down the rabbit hole. The stuff we don't know, or understand, and learn about the things we use.

So: while a pleasant peasant eats a pheasant, what shall Bessant do?

Real Madrid. Floorentino Pérez says it's worth 10b euros and he wants to hand over ownership over to club members (aka season ticket holding fans).

Wonder what that switch from being a season ticket holder to being a shareholder will look like for people's income tax come year's end.

This is ridiculous.

Las discusiones llegarán.

Late to the starter pack game, but here's a handy list of all the writers and wranglers of Bloomberg Opinion who are up on BlueSky @opinion.bsky.social go.bsky.app/87cfrJ3

Duckduckgo should go buy it!

*DOJ WILL PUSH FOR GOOGLE SELLING CHROME TO BREAK MONOPOLY