Michael

🔍 Tonight's show will see @greenallefc.bsky.social take a closer look at the numbers behind Everton's resurgence under David Moyes.

Any questions you'd like answering, Blues? #EFC

A few years ago, someone on Twitter tried to argue that pass maps aren’t helpful for analysis. This one perfectly sums up Liverpool’s struggles to break through Everton’s block.

In case you were still wondering what happened between last season and this for Sean Dyche's Everton

the games with real meaning behind them etc etc

Everton Managers since 2016-17 ranked in relation to club's wage bill, points per game and non-penalty Expected Goals performance.

In a more simple format if it suits your fancy

Everton Managers since 2016-17 ranked in relation to club's wage bill, points per game and non-penalty Expected Goals performance.

Did the post-Christmas and New Years period in Tromsø.

Drank loads of Norwegian beer and saw the aurora at one of its most intense measures.

Already want to go back.

Shots created with an xG value of +0.30 since GW4:

Spurs 29
Liverpool 22
Chelsea 22
Arsenal 20
Bournemouth 20
Brentford 19
Man City 16
Villa 14
Newcastle 14
Palace 13
Leicester 13
West Ham 12
Man Utd 11
Brighton 10
Everton 10
Fulham 10
Ipswich 10
Forest 8
Southampton 8
Wolves 8

Shots conceded with an xG value of +0.30 since GW4:

Everton 5
Arsenal 7
Forest 7
Villa 9
Bournemouth 9
Liverpool 10
Brentford 10
Newcastle 10
Chelsea 13
Fulham 13
Palace 14
Wolves 14
Brighton 17
West Ham 17
Man Utd 19
Spurs 20
Ipswich 22
Man City 22
Leicester 24
Southampton 27

"at what point does it get to when it's not about survival"

idk Darren, probably when the squad is worth more than that being the primary aim, which it isn't.

Maybe last week wasn't such a bad result, who knew

If we learned anything from the Moshiri era, it's that statements can mean little, but it's a solid start for TFG.

My expectations are on the floor, but in the short-term they just need to provide stability, clarity in decision-making & a sense of synergy across the club.

Current pool of blatantly good coaches is slim these days, even for the top clubs as the summer showed.

And those currently without a club know they can afford to wait for other jobs to come along rather than take whichever club is underperforming at the time

I really want to enjoy watching this Bournemouth team play football this evening but truthfully the camera angle at the Vitality Stadium is the worst

Annoying they won tonight but everything I had heard or read about RVN while he was at PSV rang true tonight. I wouldn't be worrying about them pushing clear of the bottom 6 or 7 anytime soon

Can only imagine what the result would be if we conceded 30+ shots and 50+ touches in our box at home, and it wouldn't be in our favour

Think it was finally tweaked towards the end of the half, but my lord the structure of that West Ham might be one of the worst I've seen

While his loss rate is 13% and 11% lower compared to the other two. They are not the same.

We're a third of the way through the season, and this is how the predicted points for each team has evolved over the season, according to spread betting on Sporting Index.

Had to triple check this, but that's 32 games played this calendar year with just 12 goals scored from open-play.

xG from open-play is 0.68 per game and only 8 times have that recorded +1.0 in a game in that time.

Don't score goals, don't win games.

Must keep Potter up night wondering what would have happened if he had just stayed at Brighton long enough to make the most of what he helped build there

Only the start of coaching in the PL, but gut-feeling is that Hurzeler's Brighton is a few levels below Potter's version despite there being significantly more quality in the team now.

Not all xG is created equally. As with goals scored, chance creation and prevention at even game-state is more important and predictive than when trailing.

As such, no surprise Everton are struggling now when they're not as productive in important situations

Another big difference in Everton's data when compared to last season?

Our Non-Penalty Expected Goal Difference at even scoreline and 11v11 is way down on the performance-level vs 23-24.

Does (or well did, now with RVN close) seem like the perfect type of environment for Moyes to go back into.

Tough financial sit would force him & the club to do what he does best when leading a rebuild which felt like he got away from at West Ham in the end.

A combination of no Doucoure but also replacing that role with McNeil and also a lack of Branthwaite for majority of our games so far too

Yep, I think they're an asset but overtime are easier for opponents to defend against than other situations.

My sympathetic side leans towards them not getting some bits of luck that they had last year but you can't build solid foundations on that anyway. Such issues are nothing new though.

Set-pieces are still clearly working to an extent relative to the rest of the league. Last season always felt like they were working at an unsustainable rate

So when a team stops doing everything that it was good at last year, how long can you wait for it to turnaround?