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Sub-Prime Goals

@spgoals7.bsky.social

Football fan writing on finance in football/sport. Have worked in banking, venture capital and most recently as a CFO. Substack: https://spgoals.substack.com

269 Followers  |  124 Following  |  124 Posts  |  Joined: 15.11.2024
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Posts by Sub-Prime Goals (@spgoals7.bsky.social)

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United: Proceed, with caution United have maximised access to cash to help negotiate in the transfer market – on and off pitch performance will still say how much they can spend sustainably

⚠️⚽️ United: Proceed, with caution
#MUFC have maximised access to cash to help negotiate in the transfer market – like paying more up front for players. On and off pitch performance will still say how much they can spend sustainably.
bit.ly/4cjEcLB

27.02.2026 16:43 — 👍 2    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

Appreciate it, pal. We try our best to bring it to life!

26.02.2026 19:22 — 👍 1    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

#MUFC financial results pod with @nqatpod.bsky.social we cover:
- How I think we could get £250mn+ EBITDA with UCL qualification
- Why matchday rev fell just £2.5mn despite 3 less games
- United's negotiating power in the transfer market
- Pros/Cons of falling wage bill + outlook
- A bit on debt

25.02.2026 22:54 — 👍 2    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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United's cost reset taking effect, they now need the Men's team to deliver on the pitch Total wages look to be reset to £300mn, the upside looks like Arsenal's resurgence but its not a given

🔴⚽️ United's cost reset taking effect, they now need the Men's team to deliver on the pitch
#MUFC total wage bill set to be £300mn in 2025/26. That’s around 30% more than Arsenal when they rest (with 40% higher revenue).
bit.ly/4tV3t58

25.02.2026 13:05 — 👍 2    🔁 1    💬 0    📌 0

Not that deep imo.

11.02.2026 11:47 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

In a world where managerial hiring and firing is increasingly costly. Reminder that #THFC paid £6.7mn to get Frank and his team from Brentford (reported today). Within a year they are probably paying at least the same again (presumably 1 yr salary) for some of those folks to leave.

11.02.2026 10:27 — 👍 1    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

Potential Glazer bid for IPL franchise…BCCI rules prohibit leveraged buyouts so how might they fund a bid:
1. Glazers head up consortium through Lancer.
2. Self-fund a bid through:
A. Own cash
B. Stake sale/ secured loan on Buccs.
C. Stake sale in #MUFC

1 and 2B most likely. Hope it’s 2C.

07.02.2026 10:00 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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United’s academy isn’t a platitude, it’s a necessity In a world where United need to sell more players than they'll buy, it creates opportunity for a "Class of 2026"

#MUFC’s academy isn’t a platitude, it’s a necessity. They’ll need to let more players go than they bring in to fund a £250mn summer transfer window. That will leave opportunities for a “Class of 2026” – read more here 👉 bit.ly/4rvOgFD

03.02.2026 16:17 — 👍 1    🔁 1    💬 0    📌 0
Cannae Holdings, Inc. Announces Black Knight Football Club’s (BKFC) Acquisition of Remaining 60% of FC Lorient | Cannae Holdings, Inc. The Investor Relations website contains information about Cannae Holdings, Inc.'s business for stockholders, potential investors, and financial analysts.

Bournemouth owners, Black Knight Football, acquire remaining 60% of French club L'Orient. L'Orient president mentioned a deal was potentially in the works in Nov 2025.
www.cannaeholdings.com/news-release...

28.01.2026 16:36 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

Latest episode of United, Inc. We cover:
- Latest Deloitte Money League figures, inc. United's slide.
- 75% of the Prem being in the list and what it means for football.
- How clubs spend their money.
- The commercial growth in the women's game.
- Latest musings on #MUFC transfer strategy.

24.01.2026 09:52 — 👍 0    🔁 1    💬 0    📌 0

Had some #AVFC fans ask me r.e. squad cost position. Updated my model post Deloitte and I have them just inside the limits. Very tight c.£10mn margin on my numbers. Whisper it quietly but Villa have the 10th largest total wage bill in global football.

23.01.2026 12:55 — 👍 3    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
Post image

#MUFC have the same total wage bill as Arsenal, despite not being in the Champions League. Food for thought.
Villa the next highest (in world football). They have a total wage bill higher than:
Atletico Madrid
Dortmund
Inter Milan
Juventus
AC Milan

22.01.2026 12:07 — 👍 3    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0
Post image

75% of the Premier League is now in the Deloitte Money League i.e. top 30 revenue generators in the world.
The idea that challengers can't compete seems odd to me.

22.01.2026 11:35 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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Is Women's Football worth its growth multiple? There's lots of opportunity but the latest revenue figures should give execs food for thought on their priorities

Women’s Football valuations have rocketed due to growth expectations. The latest Deloitte Women’s Money League showed revenue growth of just 35% for top clubs. The Women’s game should focus on exposure and sponsors to drive growth. Broadcasting money can be a dangerous drug.
bit.ly/4r5oWpW
#WSL

20.01.2026 12:25 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

😂 the only real highlight from the game.

18.01.2026 21:46 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

Brahim Diaz needs to be awarded the peace prize for that penalty 😂

18.01.2026 21:16 — 👍 7    🔁 4    💬 0    📌 0

A spectacular end to AFCON unfolding here. And not in a good way. Senegal coach now ordering his team off the pitch. Wow.

18.01.2026 21:04 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 1

Quiet start to the year with an emergency #MUFC pod…

05.01.2026 20:03 — 👍 7    🔁 1    💬 0    📌 0

But we’d have to pay big to get them to hep Napoli out with their finances…

05.01.2026 20:01 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0
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Napoli risk transfer ban & Lazio free after Serie A financial review: the situation - Football Italia Fresh from lifting the Supercoppa Italiana, Napoli could soon be dealing with a transfer-related issue away from the pitch, as reports indicate that Lazio

#Napoli likely facing transfer restrictions for breaking Serie A’s 80% squad cost rule target this season. Risk of breaching UEFA’s 70% SCR too. Any new buys have to be funded from player sales first (like UEFA List A rule).
football-italia.net/napoli-risk-...

05.01.2026 17:31 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0

Cheers! Agree, treading water seems the most likely at least near term. Who thought a cyclical upturn in the petrochemicals market was so important to United's fortunes?!

04.01.2026 16:07 — 👍 1    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

Because there’s nothing else being talked about in the world of #MUFC… immerse yourself in some INEOS financials chat and deals, deals deals deals. Suitable for pre or post war of the roses consumption.

04.01.2026 10:59 — 👍 2    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0

Have a listen to @spgoals7.bsky.social ‘s latest on No Question About That…. Apparently our scope to use the credit card is v low after splashing out on the front 3 during the summer. So not sure we can expect much unfortunately

17.12.2025 07:10 — 👍 1    🔁 1    💬 1    📌 0

I don’t but if I recall correctly it was all refinanced around the IPO so would have thought it was above $1.50…

12.12.2025 18:35 — 👍 1    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0

Cheers. One would think that would’ve been hedged by now…but I guess there are priorities ahead of fixing the paper losses atm.

12.12.2025 18:14 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 2    📌 0

It's Friday then...so learn about #MUFC financial results, what?...I'll get my coat...we cover
- Why revenue dipped by only a few million despite no Europe and some sponsorship losses
- Underlying wage bill changes
- Just how much did the debt move by and how much was new news? (spoiler, none of it)

12.12.2025 09:44 — 👍 3    🔁 1    💬 0    📌 0
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FIRST TAKE: Manchester United 1Q26 results show small improvements in underlying operating losses United showed only small revenue declines despite no European football, which was offset by lower staff costs due to Men's playing and non-playing staff changes

FIRST TAKE: #MUFC report small improvement in underlying losses for 1Q26
bit.ly/48xKDZh
Rev fell £3mn despite no European football, sponsorship losses more than offset by lower wage costs (Men's player departures). Resulted in £2mn reduction in underlying losses vs. 1Q25.

11.12.2025 13:22 — 👍 1    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0

In theory they shouldn’t be buying players for a specific Head Coach anyway. The point on wingbacks is one I’ve made consistently, it’s the area they haven’t put a heap of funds into and the one that’s most critical to this formation. It means they are not over leveraged to the formation financially

05.12.2025 14:56 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0
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United can spend in January, but should they? United have further savings and incoming funds that provide the means to do business, but it might be the sort of bet that got previous regimes into trouble

£30mn owed (excl. transfers), expiring contracts and sale options will provide a transfer kitty. So could more sponsorships. Countless footballing reasons for #MUFC to bring forward spend. But any big mistakes will slow down a full recovery. Do INEOS think that’s a gamble worth taking
bit.ly/4pM3cOX

05.12.2025 13:01 — 👍 4    🔁 1    💬 1    📌 0
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Wolves wandering into the wilderness The midlands side are facing the biggest threat to their Premier League status since their return in 2018. What is their underlying financial situation?

🐺 #Wolves on course for the lowest points total in Premier League history. Their underlying financials?

Ex. Player trading losses are £80-100mn/yr. Cash flow supported by debt and just £25mn of infrastructure investment.

Could #wwfc value drop 85% with relegation?

Subscribe here 👉 bit.ly/4awcs5k

02.12.2025 12:17 — 👍 0    🔁 1    💬 0    📌 0