Chick Jacobs

The main storm line is still a few hours west of FAY. If you need to drive anywhere locally, no worries. Just make sure you're someplace beside out on the road when this line arrives.

The SPC has backed off the strength of wind gusts this morning, at least a bit.
We're still looking at up to a 50-50 chance of damaging gusts in isolated storms, however.

The Sandhills are part of a large area under a tornado watch until 1 p.m. A warning has already been posted up around Winst-Salem.

Great live show!

NAM 3K (and to a lesser extent the NAM) take an opposite approach, pumping more moisture into the Sandhills. It also warms the mid-levels a bit, but not as much as one might think. The result: A sleetfest for FAY and more ice to the south and east. Even a bit of snow.

First a look at the mid-day dynamics: The HRRR is dry, in part because it sees moisture begin "stolen" by storms in the Gulf (of America/Mexico ... you decide). We've seen this happen in spring and summer storms, so it makes sense. 2/x

The mid-day modeling consensus ... there isn't one.
NAM, 3K SREF are coming in wetter with more ZR and sleet for our neck of the woods. HRRR is trying to starve the storm.
Can we make sense of it? Perhaps 1/x

The RGEM must be running for public office. A much more pleasant outlook for our neck of the woods and a crush for Raleigh -- nearly all snow. RGEM still delivers a nasty ice storm into RobCo, Bladen and SamCo, however.

All the players are now in range to be sampled.
That means the dynamic models take over from the more coarse globals.
The noonish updates will really tell the general tale.

12Z NAM just came in. Much wetter, but warmer in the mid-levels. If it verifies, the Sandhills are out of snow and back in the icebox.

The morning Euro is no better. An imposing warm nose melts any snow hopes aloft ... and sub-freezing surface temps do the rest.

12Z GFS gives FAY a bit of ice ... but if you have an appointment north and east of town, think about rescheduling.

The Sandhills will see rain on Sunday as well, with the potential for a strong storm line moving through in the late morning to lunchtime. Gusts won't be as strong as originally feared, maybe 35 mph, with brief, heavy rainfall.

Overnight and morning modeling continues to show a potential for an ugly ice event in the state. The center has moved more up to the Piedmont, with more cold rain than ZR for the Sandhills.
But if you have a generator, you might want to test it ... just in case.

GEM setup gives the Sandhills a shot of sleet, maybe a quarter inch average... then ice. Lots of ice.
One model, one run. But a VERY ugly look.
GEM setup gives the Sandhills a shot of sleet, maybe a quarter inch average... then ice. Lots of ice.
One model, one run. But a VERY ugly look.

Meanwhile, the 12Z Euro says stop, collaborate and listen next week.

We've discussed the Bunnlevel Line before -- the "They Shall Not Pass" snow barrier north of FAY.
But I don't think I've ever seen it as clearly displayed as today's 12Z CMC. Less than an inch of snow for FAY, pushing 2 feet for Lillington? 30 inches for Angier and Fuquay-Varina?

After setting a record high temp (79) yesterday, FAY barely made 45 today.
Welcome to February in the Sandhills!

Today is literally one for the books in FAY.
We hit 78 degrees this afternoon, topping the daily record of 75, set in 2023.
Think of this day fondly over the next week as clouds, rain and temperatures in the 40s and low 50s will be the norm.

Modeling continues to retreat, reducing any Snowhound hopes for next week. On the bright side, the threat of ice retreats as well. Looks like cold rain -- which we need -- on the menu for the Sandhills.

Today's high in FAY was 55 degrees. I say "was" because that's where we were at midnight. IT's not going to get any better today as a quick-hitting cold front holds the Sandhills in the upper 40s to low 50s.
Tomorrow? Back above 70.
Welcome to February in the Sandhills!

We all know Facebook is where the "old folks" hang out. So I'm exceptionally proud of my daughter for wading into those geriatric waters with a plea to save our country.

The 12Z Canadian pays homage to the Bunnlevel Line, with snow to the north, ice to the south.

Overnight modeling was not kind to Sandhill Snowhound hopes, with the GFS, Euro, AIFS and CMC sliding north to leave our neck of the woods with cold rain and some icy slop. The overall look is a CAD event, which are notorious for eroding over the Sandhills.

#Club384 usually isn't big on those techno Eurobands ... but I gotta admit, Euro AI is growing on us. The latest run will go down as one of the biggest hits this winter.
Reminder: AI is alone with this sort of hit, and it's still entertainment purposes only.
Stay tuned!

Meanwhile ... Just when I was getting ready to mothball #Club384 until tropical season...
Knock-knock!
Who's there?
Euro? Euro who?
Euro-bout to see something interesting.
Caveat: Remember the mantra!

A gloomy morning across the Sandhills, with highs expected to top out in the upper 50s. Watch for fog forming tonight, with a low in FAY of about 40.