Vincent Ledvina

Final push before finals next week! Who else is still in school grinding on homework? I can’t wait to be done with classes.

You can see the filament eruption shortly after the first CME had a leading shock front that created an asymmetric full halo as seen from coronagraph imagery. We may see a grazing blow from this edge on Dec 4, amplifying the predicted onset of the CIR-driven CH influences.

Although NASA is not forecasting an impact from the X1.9 CME, NOAA SWPC and the UK Met office have a glancing blow possible around December 4. A G2 (moderate) geomagnetic storm watch has been issued by SWPC for December 3rd and 4th.

It's possible this could have led to major geomagnetic storming if this active region had waited about a week before firing off this monster eruption.

The ejecta is actually from a two-part eruption with a filament releasing shortly after the flare+initial CME. The initial CME was modeled at around 1900 km/s with the filament at 1250 km/s.

In case you are wondering about the NASA M2M prediction for the X1.9 CME, they are modeling it as a miss. Here is the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model showing the shock and bulk heading east of the Earth.

#heliophysics

The scale of today's X1.9 CME compared to the Earth. Truly a monstorous eruption.

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Thank you, everyone, and have a great day!

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Although flares and CMEs from active regions cannot be predicted, there is more confidence in the high-speed solar wind arriving from the transequatorial coronal hole currently facing Earth. The CIR associated with CH 04- may start affecting Earth in a few days.

AR 4294 is still the most promising region for big fireworks. NOAA SWPC has upgraded this region to a 20% chance for X-flares over the next 24 hours. However, this large region (as well as neighboring AR 4296) has been quiet over the past day...

AR 4299 (ex-AR 4274) is the same active region which gave us the big G4 storm last month. It is still willing to produce strong flares, and NOAA SWPC is giving it a 5% chance of X-flares over the next 24 hours.

The CME associated with the X1.9 flare earlier today was violent and wide. It's impressive we are even talking about an Earth-directed component when the AR was barely over the eastern limb at the time of the flare and eruption. The CME was truly impressive!

NOAA SWPC is modeling a slight grazing imapct from the wide X1.9 CME around Dec 4, 11 UT. This is around the same time as the CIR may start affecting Earth in front of the incoming fast solar wind.

An Aurora Chaser's Guide to the HUXt CME Model Calling all aurora chasers! Learn how CME models work to inform geomagnetic storm forecasts and how the HUXt model can help better inform predictions of geomagnetic and auroral activity. In this guide...

If you are interested in learning more about the HUXt model, it is a nice way to visualize incoming CMEs. Read more about it on my blog: go.theauroraguy.com/huxtmodel

Good morning. The X1.9 CME has been modeled by a few agencies. NASA M2M registers a miss at Earth, NOAA SWPC predicts a love tap from the shock front around Dec 4, 11 UT, and HUXt is giving a ~37% chance of a hit around Dec 4, 3 UT with high arrival time uncertainty.

#heliophysics

A few of my favorite auroral displays I’ve seen over the years…

Around 45k I think

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If you don’t know how to read coronagraphs, I suggest you download my free aurora chasing ebook as well as look at some of my blog articles.

E-book: go.theauroraguy.com/ebook

Relevant blogs:

go.theauroraguy.com/huxtmodel

go.theauroraguy.com/aurorapredic...

NOAA CCOR-1 imagery is showing a full halo signature albeit a faint one with this X1.9 CME. It is possible Earth will see a nibble from the shock front in a few days. Agency modeling from NASA and NOAA should narrow down an arrival time and verify the Earth-directed component.

As we get more data, it seems like the shockwave almost traveled to the center of the Earth-facing disk.

A little nibble of the CME shock front could graze Earth in a few days, perhaps. We need to see model runs to get a better idea of how much if any at all, though.

What a spectacular eruption from the active region rotating onto the Earth-facing disk. There was a large amount of plasma ejected with this CME triggered by a major X1.9 flare peaking around 248 UT on Dec 1.

Here is base-difference imagery showing the intense CME following the X1.9 flare today. It appears that a filament eruption also took place around the same time as the first CME. Quite impressive!

Goodness, that is a violent CME launching with this ongoing X-class flare. Look at the motion of the field lines close to the AR and the whipping of the solar atmosphere as a blast wave propagates away.

I still don't think Earth will see much if anything at all, but we'll see.

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To follow space weather "from Sun to mud," I suggest you check out my free aurora chasing e-book available here: go.theauroraguy.com/ebook . It's packed full of information like how to watch for solar flares and track CMEs.

We need to wait a little longer for the AR to be facing us more directly so that any CME will be fired our way and have a better shot at hitting Earth. CMEs are what cause geomagnetic storms and auroras, not solar flares!

In a several days, we will get a better view of the AR and its magnetic configuration, and hopefully it remains healthy, magnetically complex, and capable of producing big flares and CMEs.

What does this mean for aurora chasers? Nothing right now except some fuel for hope. This active region is fresh on the Earth-facing disk and not in a great spot to produce CMEs heading our way.

And there we have it, welcome to December! The Sun just fired off a substantial X1.95 solar flare from a new active region rotating into our view. The bright flash you see is the flare. There may be an associated plasma ejection (CME), but it will likely not affect Earth.

BOOM! X-CLASS FLARE HAPPENING NOW from an un-numbered active region (AR) on the Sun's northeastern limb. This is ex-AR 4274 which gave us the G4 storm earlier in November. Apparently, it still has some juice left for more fireworks.

#heliophysics