@johneric.bsky.social
Assistant professor at Yale. Labor economist. johnerichumphries.com
Eviction has spillover effects on children, with particularly negative effects for boys and older kids. These effects may be moderated by access to family support networks, from Collinson, Dutz, @johneric.bsky.social, Mader, Tannenbaum, and van Dijk https://www.nber.org/papers/w33659
14.04.2025 20:00 — 👍 13 🔁 8 💬 0 📌 1Jason Abaluck and I are organizing the Cowles Labor and Public Economics Conference at Yale, June 2-3. Submit your papers by March 24: cowles.yale.edu/conferences/...
@jabaluck.bsky.social
This a screenshot of the abstract of our paper, called Conviction, Incarceration and Recidivism: Understanding the Revolving Door. It says "Noncarceral conviction is a common outcome of criminal court cases: for every individual incarcerated, there are approximately three who were recently convicted but not sentenced to prison or jail. We extend the binary-treatment judge IV framework to settings with multiple treatments and use it to study the consequences of noncarceral conviction. We outline assumptions under which widely-used 2SLS regressions recover margin-specific treatment effects, relate these assumptions to models of judge decision-making, and derive an expression that provides intuition about the direction and magnitude of asymptotic bias when a key assumption on judge decision-making is not met. We find that noncarceral conviction (relative to dismissal) leads to a large and long-lasting increase in recidivism for felony defendants in Virginia. In contrast, incarceration (relative to noncarceral conviction) leads to a short-run reduction in recidivism, consistent with incapacitation. Our empirical results suggest that noncarceral felony conviction is an important and overlooked driver of recidivism."
Paper🧵!
We....
1) develop a framework for identification w/ multiple treatments in a judge IV design
2) find that felony conviction (without incarceration) increases recidivism relative to dismissal
with @johneric.bsky.social Aurelie Ouss @winnievd.bsky.social and Kamelia Stavreva
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Jason Abaluck and I are organizing the Cowles Labor and Public Economics Conference at Yale, June 2-3. Submit your papers by March 24: cowles.yale.edu/conferences/...
@jabaluck.bsky.social
