David A. McKay

Recent news for context: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/aug/28/collapse-critical-atlantic-current-amoc-no-longer-low-likelihood-study

Overall the general picture is the same though: the AMOC weakens with warming, the larger that warming the more likely it is to collapse in the long run, that collapse would radically change life in Europe & the tropics, and one part of it could go much sooner. But also: deep uncertainty remains!

Apropos of recent AMOC news, I've finally gotten round to updating this AMOC tipping explainer from a couple years back with some of the flurry of papers published since then - check it out if you'd like some more background:

https://climatetippingpoints.info/2023/08/15/amoc-collapse-explainer/ […]

Apropos of recent AMOC news (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/aug/28/collapse-critical-atlantic-current-amoc-no-longer-low-likelihood-study), I've finally gotten round to updating this AMOC tipping explainer from a couple years back with some of the flurry of papers published since […]

Seen a #TippingPoints story recently about the SMOC (the ocean's overturning circulation around Antarctica, i.e. AMOC's southern sibling) abruptly reversing?

Thankfully, it's not true (seems a press release got overenthusiastic).

Want to know what the paper behind it really said? Read this […]

I was on BBC Radio Scotland last week talking about whether the recent very sunny & dry followed by wet weather in Scotland & rUK has been a case of "weather whiplash" - you can listen in here: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m002cpq0, & read my write-up: https://medium.com/p/82e39321740c […]

Going to @EuroGeosciences #EGU25 today? I'll be speaking remotely about Holocene climate stability (and whether or not it means we're in a self-stabilising climate attractor, or just got lucky) & the #HothouseEarth hypothesis at 1620 CEST in Room F1 / online […]

I recently spoke with @jessimckenzi at the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists for their interesting new special issue on climate hashtag#TippingPoints - lots of great pieces & different views, and you can check out the full interview with me here (including conjuring a new meta-metaphor!) […]