The Rini

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Opinion:

Jack Dorsey is more of an economist than most economists we know (we are econometricians).

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Does not matter anymore as we have made a profit already following the Rini.

Prediction success is a nice statistic but what matters is whether following the Rini yields >0 returns.

#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #unemployment #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading

Today OMXS30 opened at a new ATH.

It also reached a new intraday ATH.

We went long and sold with a profit.

It should finish above the opening price in the absence of a <0 shock.

#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #unemployment #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading

Have recovered all losses - doable task.

Yesterday, Tuesday, the Rini produced a bull (M13 valid and Type IV).

We will categorize Monday's signal as a bull, too, from now on (M13 valid, >0 shock).

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The spot price of silver complies with technical analysis.

Bitcoin does, too.

High probability (i.e. lower risk) bull 🐂 signals worth trading.

#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #unemployment #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading

The newer M13 condition (bull again) switched on 21 times so far in 2025, 17 of which were correct, i.e. 81% prediction success.

Two wrong signals can be avoided.

#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #unemployment #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading

Silver:

The M3 condition that locates minima and signifies a bull switched on 10 times so far in 2025, nine of which were correct!

This is a 90% prediction success.

#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #unemployment #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading

It's wrong because the dominant move was upwards (although at the end the index declined but not even as much).

It's a wrong Rini during a shock day - classic.

The newer M13 switched on (bull) but it's still under observation (prefer not to trade during shocks as well).

To prove #1 we need hourly data at least (don't have them).

Perhaps there are functions that matter and have not been discovered yet.

Just because we can't establish a relationship doesn't mean it doesn't exist.

It simply means we failed to uncover it.

Confession.

The one variable that does not matter for daily close/open prices and the range is volume.

Plausible explanations:

1. Indeed, it does not matter for the daily measures (but perhaps matters for intraday moves, lower data than daily).

2. The functions of volume we tried do not matter.

Precious metals are up today possibly because of Potus' announcement to hand out 2000 USD per person from tariffs (inflationary).

Bitcoin, Ethereum up as well possibly due to liquidity improvement.

#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing $VIX #trading

We recovered half of Friday's loss.

Monday 10.11.25.

The baseline Rini signal is bearish as the opening price is too high reflecting reaction to US gov. shutdown coming to an end.

#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing $VIX #trading

Recently we consistently snob and even defund fields such as philosophy and sociology but it's wrong because there are no limits or restrictions anymore according to ethics and morality.

Here is the result: The "tech bros" do whatever they want.

anthropology, economic sociology and economic history.

Human behavior, psychology and well-being are central.

Economics teaches you about Pareto improvements, inequality, social mobility, etc.

Hard sciences miss that completely, hence are unfit to decide about humanity's future.

The "tech bros" are not fit for making such decisions and should stick to writing code.

Why? Because their science is separate from anthropology, sociology and humanities in general.

On the contrary, although economics is applied math essentially, economists are taught in the framework of economic

We cannot model econometrically behaviors before they appear - we do not know they exist until then.

They appear along with new settings.

And there exist almost infinite such settings.

#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing $VIX #trading

*Because, apologies.

*Correction, we traded the bull

For example, we discovered (always out of necessity) Types III and IV after two and a half years into the Rini!

This is why we think the Rini should experience an extended bear market: New behaviors.

#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing $VIX #trading

During new econometric discoveries, trading stops completely because we do not know at that moment if the previous Rini is reliable anymore (have posted multiple times on this).

#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing $VIX #trading

Trading an econometric model under construction is difficult because the information displayed changes often so that the trader has to adapt again and again to new Rini trading rules.

#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing $VIX #trading

signal appears on the Stata window automatically.

We have mentioned before that the creation of the "setting" variable is a bit tedious.

But has to be coded also for a future Rini trading algorithm.

#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing $VIX #trading

Unlikely, as we finished the code for Type IV and are currently preparing the new backtesting including this 4th type.

Next step is coding the "setting" variable, e.g. PBUA, so that the appropriate

#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing $VIX #trading

Today it was a strong bear, thus correct, while the backtesting one was a bull (which we looked at).

Unfortunately, we traded the bear today and incurred a loss.

Will this happen again in the future?

#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #trading

of November, backtesting signals and the usual Rini coincide.

But they do not on the 6th (yesterday) and today, the 7th.

Yesterday the Rini signal was a bull, thus wrong, because of the <0 shock.

#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing $VIX #trading

is no longer in a PBUA.

Thus, it is the usual Rini that decides the signal (and intervals).

Well, we have erroneously continued basing the calculations on backtesting.

For the 3rd, 4th and 5th

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almost always sells in this setting.

It becomes difficult for the Rini to produce a bull.

This is why we invented the other Types and augmented the econometric specification.

From 03.11.25 OMXS30

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It is a bear and we understood why:

When OMXS30 is in what we call a "perfect bullish alignment" (PBUA), backtesting dictates which types of investors should be considered.

Why?

Becasue Type I

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Friday 07.11.25.

Looks like a bull Horst trade in the absence of a <0 shock:

Opens + and closes even higher than the opening price.

We will re-evaluate close to the opening.

#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing $VIX #trading