Econometrica

Econometrica Volume 93, Issue 6 (November 2025) is now online
www.econometricsociety.org/publications...

Who should choose treatments: planners or individuals? This paper develops a framework for learning optimal selection-driven targeting rules, applies it to an energy cost rebate program, and finds welfare gains double those of a selection-absent rule buff.ly/5PoGDrn

We show how optimal partisan gerrymandering varies with electoral uncertainty. For realistic parameters, gerrymandering resembles packing-and-cracking for a gerrymanderer with minority support, and uniform districting for one with majority support. buff.ly/JZteJzL

Macro outcomes depend on the distribution of markups across firms/time, making firm-level markup estimates key for macro analysis. Firm data with wide coverage primarily comes from financial statements. Can markups be accurately estimated with such data? buff.ly/tgD0OID

A widely held view is that the Gini coefficient is not decomposable by subgroups. This paper proposes an axiomatic framework that ensures well-behaved within and between-group terms under which the Gini is decomposable with a novel and unique formula. buff.ly/XdnzG6F

Instead of testing for bias from potential misspecification of model restrictions, it's nearly optimal to adapt, averaging restricted and unrestricted estimates using data-driven weights. shinyApp: buff.ly/MmMdwf4 Paper: buff.ly/HsuV7ep

Platform competition in NYC ride-hailing wastes $176M/yr and 21% of driver traffic. A merger would cut traffic by 8% but raise prices, costing consumers $77M/yr. Interoperability rules could reduce traffic by 6% and boost consumer surplus by $63M/yr. buff.ly/MeV4sJz

Many open economies face multiple frictions, including currency premia and constraints on external & domestic debt. This article links the desirability of FX intervention, capital controls and prudential limits to the mix of frictions and how they interact.https://buff.ly/5CAWDdQ

Criminal organizations hinder development. In El Salvador, US deportations seeded gangs whose territorial borders trap residents. Those inside have lower income, education, and well-being than neighbors just 50m away, mainly due to restricted mobility. buff.ly/s9xz4fh

Economic outcomes often depend on the distribution of some maximum value (eg highest valuation, best idea, lowest cost). If the average number of options is large, how do such outcomes change when some agents have more options than others? @sephorahmangin.bsky.social buff.ly/I0CFaj4

Econometrica Volume 93, Issue 5 (September 2025) is now online
www.econometricsociety.org/publications...

Governments use their countries’ economic strength from financial and trade relationships to achieve geopolitical and economic goals. We provide a framework of the sources and uses of geoeconomic power. Mixing macro theory and international relations. buff.ly/eyQ2yBx

From Côte d’Ivoire to the U.S., social obligations to share income are common. Eliana Carranza, Aletheia Donald, Florian Grosset-Touba and Supreet Kaur show their welfare benefits may come at a cost: lower labor supply and productivity. buff.ly/28YCYeT

How to quantify consumer surplus in love of variety/quality ladder models? Supplier addition/separation helps identify key statistic without functional form assumptions. Crucial input for policy questions & comparative statics in growth & trade models. buff.ly/ZzOHH5B

U.S. municipal bonds remain illiquid; this article links this illiquidity to underwriter-driven complexity and quantifies the welfare gains from mandating standardization. buff.ly/KfH7vsT

We show a long-run player who repeatedly observes private signals and takes actions can sometimes establish a reputation even when their strategy is not identified. Our result applies to games of deterrence, delegation, signaling, and Bayesian persuasion. buff.ly/NcrNE6L

Could a highly desirable agent accept a partner that a less desirable agent would reject? When matching requires search in time-changing environments, this paper proves this impossible only where more desirable agents are more patient and less risk-averse. buff.ly/S5uwd3j

Can transparent admissions rules increase access to college? This paper shows two thirds of Texas’ Top Ten Percent Plan’s impact came from information, not mechanical effects, admitting low-income students who outperform those they displace. @adamkapor.bsky.social
buff.ly/EGdXrpO

We introduce a novel experimental design and econometric model to estimate risk aversion, prudence, and temperance without imposing their interdependence. Our approach unmasks variation in risk attitudes that existing modeling approaches may obscure. buff.ly/4C38RGI

Econometrica Volume 93, Issue 4 (July 2025) is now online
www.econometricsociety.org/publications...

Can private insurance fill gaps from public disability insurance (DI) cuts? Studying a German reform, Seibold, @sseitzecon.bsky.social & @sigginho.bsky.social find modest private DI take-up, no adverse selection & efficiency gains, but an equity case for public DI. buff.ly/A0x8RSu

Analyzing scientists' biographies during the baby boom, we find that mothers have a unique life cycle pattern of productivity. Children reduce the productivity of mothers but not fathers, with important implications for promotions and participation. buff.ly/39WbYRH

We study how trade policy can reduce global emissions. Unilateral carbon border taxes have limited efficacy at cutting foreign emissions. By contrast, coordinated trade penalties under a climate club prove highly effective. buff.ly/NEE3Uy8

We are excited to announce that the following new associate editors with expertise in economic theory joined the editorial board of Econometrica on July 1st, 2025: Piotr Dworczak (Northwestern University), Ryota Iijima (Princeton University), and Yves Sprumont (Deakin University).

We are excited to announce that the following new associate editors with expertise in political economy joined the editorial board of Econometrica on July 1st, 2025: Hülya Eraslan (Rice University) and Eric Weese (Tokyo University).

We are excited to announce the following new AEs with expertise in IO, labor, and applied micro: Francesco Decarolis (Bocconi University), Thomas Lemieux (VSE), Mathias Reynaert (TSE), Eduardo Souza-Rodrigues (University of Toronto), and Andrew Sweeting (Maryland University)

We are excited to announce that the following new associate editors with expertise in macroeconomics and international economics joined the editorial board of ECMA on July 1st, 2025: Jennifer La'O (Columbia University), Michael Peters (Yale University), and Stephen Redding (Princeton University).

We are excited to announce that the following new associate editors with expertise in econometrics joined the editorial board of Econometrica on July 1st, 2025: Alexei Onatski (University of Cambridge), Adam M. Rosen (Duke University), and Jörg Stoye (Cornell University).

We are thrilled to have Aureo de Paula (UCL), Keisuke Hirano (Penn State), Pete Klenow (Stanford), & Marciano Siniscalchi (Northwestern) join the editorial board as coeditors, starting July 1st. They will handle papers on a wide range of topics in IO, econometrics, macro, and economic theory.

Co-editors Kate Ho and Chad Jones left the editorial board at the end of June 2025. We are very grateful to them for their contributions. The journal has greatly benefited from their insight and energy.