Econometrica

Communicating uncertainty about our conclusions is an important scientific task.
Is reporting a point estimate and standard error good enough?
We propose a practical recipe for checking whether it is, and for improving our report when it is not. buff.ly/1RmUW1F

Spatial models calibrated to observed flows suffer overfitting problems in granular settings. @tradediversion.bsky.social & Felix Tintelnot diagnose the problem, show data smoothing performs better, and introduce a finite model to quantify counterfactual uncertainty. buff.ly/rJ8EE0J

Can cities in developing countries create enough good jobs for climate migrants? @gulyssea.bsky.social and @clementimbert.bsky.social show that, over a decade, drought-induced immigration decreases informality and increases the number of formal firms and jobs in Brazil. buff.ly/d3h4E6p

One of the strengths of the Generalized Method of Moments is its ability to test model validity using overidentification tests. But what if the test fails? This paper provides a way to interpret misspecified models through the lens of optimal transport. buff.ly/uUSROOr

Econometrica Volume 94, Issue 1 (January 2026) is now online
www.econometricsociety.org/publications...

In settings with high informality, the gains from trade are significantly amplified by reductions in misallocation. During economic downturns, the informal sector acts as a buffer against unemployment but leads to larger aggregate real-income losses. buff.ly/uHxXRA4

Workplace disabilities don't have to end careers. New research analyzing Oregon workers compensation shows that subsidizing firms to accommodate injured workers boosts employment & earnings and creates welfare gains across the board. @corinamommaerts.bsky.social @rennstep.bsky.social buff.ly/YCtvuIN

This paper proposes optimal shrinkage of fixed effects in linear panel models, yielding precision gains under weak assumptions—unlike standard methods. It accommodates time-varying or disaggregated effects without strong distributional assumptions. buff.ly/NLvVteZ

Empirical Bayes can work much better when we let standard errors inform the estimated prior. Textbook methods ignore this and can badly miss. This paper develops flexible tools that stay CLOSE to the oracle and deliver large gains in practice. buff.ly/QYMI0V7

We show that the existence of an equilibrium in the classic private value first price auction model hinges on a single statistic of the joint distribution of the players’ values, namely the lowest value in the support of the high-value distribution. buff.ly/qik5070

Restricting beliefs may change the predictions of strong rationalizability non-monotonically. Yet, this paper shows, restricting initial beliefs on types can only sharpen the predictions. This allows to solve an open problem in robust-implementation theory.https://buff.ly/mO017Pu

A model of repeated games under non-probabilistic uncertainty: today's action must be chosen without knowing what tomorrow's stage game will be. So infinite-horizon payoffs are indeterminate. Can we still identify what equilibrium outcomes are possible? buff.ly/dq0KV6e

We are deeply saddened by the passing of Kate Ho, the John L. Weinberg Professor at Princeton and a Fellow of the Econometric Society. Kate was a brilliant IO economist and scholar whose impact on the profession will resonate for many years to come www.econometricsociety.org/publications...

Using random assignment to agronomic trials and six seasons to study dynamic learning, this paper shows how multidimensionality of farming decisions - and differential learning from own experience by skill - led to costly re-optimization and slow adoption. buff.ly/A6V4KwY

A new criterion to evaluate simple but suboptimal multi-good selling mechanisms: The rate at which a seller with precise info about buyers’ valuations approximates first-best revenue. Pure bundling achieves the optimal rate and outperforms separate sales. buff.ly/oQUJwvE

Econometrica Volume 93, Issue 6 (November 2025) is now online
www.econometricsociety.org/publications...

Who should choose treatments: planners or individuals? This paper develops a framework for learning optimal selection-driven targeting rules, applies it to an energy cost rebate program, and finds welfare gains double those of a selection-absent rule buff.ly/5PoGDrn

We show how optimal partisan gerrymandering varies with electoral uncertainty. For realistic parameters, gerrymandering resembles packing-and-cracking for a gerrymanderer with minority support, and uniform districting for one with majority support. buff.ly/JZteJzL

Macro outcomes depend on the distribution of markups across firms/time, making firm-level markup estimates key for macro analysis. Firm data with wide coverage primarily comes from financial statements. Can markups be accurately estimated with such data? buff.ly/tgD0OID

A widely held view is that the Gini coefficient is not decomposable by subgroups. This paper proposes an axiomatic framework that ensures well-behaved within and between-group terms under which the Gini is decomposable with a novel and unique formula. buff.ly/XdnzG6F

Instead of testing for bias from potential misspecification of model restrictions, it's nearly optimal to adapt, averaging restricted and unrestricted estimates using data-driven weights. shinyApp: buff.ly/MmMdwf4 Paper: buff.ly/HsuV7ep

Platform competition in NYC ride-hailing wastes $176M/yr and 21% of driver traffic. A merger would cut traffic by 8% but raise prices, costing consumers $77M/yr. Interoperability rules could reduce traffic by 6% and boost consumer surplus by $63M/yr. buff.ly/MeV4sJz

Many open economies face multiple frictions, including currency premia and constraints on external & domestic debt. This article links the desirability of FX intervention, capital controls and prudential limits to the mix of frictions and how they interact.https://buff.ly/5CAWDdQ

Criminal organizations hinder development. In El Salvador, US deportations seeded gangs whose territorial borders trap residents. Those inside have lower income, education, and well-being than neighbors just 50m away, mainly due to restricted mobility. buff.ly/s9xz4fh

Economic outcomes often depend on the distribution of some maximum value (eg highest valuation, best idea, lowest cost). If the average number of options is large, how do such outcomes change when some agents have more options than others? @sephorahmangin.bsky.social buff.ly/I0CFaj4

Econometrica Volume 93, Issue 5 (September 2025) is now online
www.econometricsociety.org/publications...

Governments use their countries’ economic strength from financial and trade relationships to achieve geopolitical and economic goals. We provide a framework of the sources and uses of geoeconomic power. Mixing macro theory and international relations. buff.ly/eyQ2yBx

From Côte d’Ivoire to the U.S., social obligations to share income are common. Eliana Carranza, Aletheia Donald, Florian Grosset-Touba and Supreet Kaur show their welfare benefits may come at a cost: lower labor supply and productivity. buff.ly/28YCYeT

How to quantify consumer surplus in love of variety/quality ladder models? Supplier addition/separation helps identify key statistic without functional form assumptions. Crucial input for policy questions & comparative statics in growth & trade models. buff.ly/ZzOHH5B

U.S. municipal bonds remain illiquid; this article links this illiquidity to underwriter-driven complexity and quantifies the welfare gains from mandating standardization. buff.ly/KfH7vsT