SPC Tornado/Severe Thunderstorm Alerts (UNOFFICIAL)

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AND PART OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and over part of northern Minnesota today and tonight. ...Northern/Central Plains into the Mid MS Valley... An MCS continues to push southward across the Mid MO Valley this morning. The current motion, particularly the westward backbuilding of storms into more of east-central NE, have oriented this system favorably to a moist low-level jet, which should support maintenance of this line for the next few hours. Echo tops within this system remain fairly cool and occasionally strong updrafts have persisted for the last several hours. Additionally, a notable rise/fall pressure couplet exists with this system, as sampled by the +4 mb pressure rise as SUX. These factors indicate the MCS remains mature and could still occasionally produce damaging gusts over the next few hours across southeast NE, southwest IA, northwest MO, and far northeast KS. This MCS should begin to weaken later this morning when the low-level jet weakens. The region will be within the mostly zonal flow between the upper ridging centered over NM and a shortwave trough moving through SK and MB. Some rising heights are possible during the second half of the period as the pattern amplifies ahead of a shortwave trough moving into the northern Rockies. A belt of stronger mid-level flow (i.e. around 40 kt at 500 mb) will extend across the region, and diurnal heating of the moist airmass in place will foster moderate to strong buoyancy. The resulting combination of buoyancy and shear would favor strong to severe thunderstorms, but the satellite imagery lacks any notable disturbances upstream and the large-scale ascent is nebulous. The surface pattern also lacks any well-defined features, with only weak troughing sampled from the central Dakotas to a weak low over northeast CO. As such, when and where convective initiation occurs, if it occurs at all, is uncertain. Convective initiation appears most likely near the Black Hills into western NE within southeasterly low-level upslope flow within a very moist/unstable airmass. Environmental conditions support supercells with a conditional risk for large hail and damaging winds. However, given the uncertainty regarding coverage, will maintain Marginal risk (level 1 of 5). ...Northern MN... A few storms may develop along the southern periphery of the Canadian Prairies shortwave upper trough and surface low. Lapse rates will be weaker across this area and the favorable thermodynamic environment will be narrow. Any stronger storms will likely remain close to the international border, but could produce locally strong gusts or marginal hail. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 08/06/2025

Day 1 Outlook Image

SPC Aug 6, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
⛈️THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AND PART
OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA🌪️
Additional Details Here.

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Saturday/Day 4 to Monday/Day 6... A mid-level trough will move across the northern Plains on Saturday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the upper Mississippi and mid Missouri Valleys. Moderate to strong instability should be in place ahead of the front by afternoon from eastern Nebraska northeastward into Wisconsin. Thunderstorm development is expected to take place along parts of the front from the afternoon into the evening, with the greatest convective coverage over the upper Mississippi Valley. A few storms could be severe, with large hail and isolated damaging wind gusts expected to be the primary threats. On Sunday, another mid-level trough is forecast to move into the central and northern Plains, as a moist and unstable airmass remains in place ahead of the front from the mid Missouri Valley northeastward upper Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms will again be possible ahead of the trough near an axis of moderate instability during the afternoon and evening. Some model forecasts suggest the strongest instability will not be co-located with the greatest convective potential. Although a severe threat may develop across parts of the region, this would negatively affect severe threat magnitude. The mid-level trough is forecast to shift eastward across the north-central U.S. on Monday, as a cold front advances southeastward across the central Plains and Upper Midwest. Isolated severe thunderstorms will again be possible ahead of the front near an axis of moderate instability. However, large-scale ascent will be somewhat limited across much of the region, suggesting the convective potential and resulting severe threat should remain isolated. ...Tuesday/Day 7 and Wednesday/Day 8... From Tuesday into Wednesday, the mid-level trough and an associated cold front is forecast to advance eastward from the north-central U.S. into the Northeast. Along and ahead of the front each afternoon and evening, strong thunderstorms will be possible. However, the models are forecasting less instability and a more disorganized pattern compared to previous days, suggesting that any severe threat will remain localized.

Day 4-8 Outlook Image

SPC Aug 6, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
⛈️DISCUSSION🌪️
Additional Details Here.

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are likely on Friday across parts of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. ...Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... A mid-level trough will progress eastward into the northern High Plains on Friday, as an associated speed max moves over the northern Plains. At the surface, a low will deepen across the central Plains, as a cold front advances eastward the north-central states. Ahead of the front, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place from the central Dakotas eastward to the upper Mississippi Valley. A pronounced axis of strong instability is forecast by afternoon from northeastern South Dakota into far eastern North Dakota. Surface-based thunderstorms are expected to develop along an instability gradient located just ahead of the front during the mid to late afternoon. A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms will move eastward across the eastern Dakotas into Minnesota from late afternoon into the evening. At 21Z on Friday, forecast soundings near the axis of instability have an impressive thermodynamic environment. To the west of Fargo, North Dakota, MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 4500 to 6000 J/kg range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 8 to 9 C/km range. In addition, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 35 to 40 knot range, suggesting supercells with large hail will be likely. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the stronger cores. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast reach the 200 to 275 m2/s2 range by late afternoon, suggesting that a tornado threat could develop. The potential for severe gusts is expected to increase in the early evening, as a cluster or broken line of strong to severe storms moves eastward across the region. Further south into southeastern South Dakota and northeastern Nebraska, cell coverage is forecast to be more isolated due to a capping inversion that is evident on forecast soundings. In spite of the cap, low-level convergence is forecast to become strong just ahead of the front. This should be enough for convective initiation during the evening. The environment along this part of the front will likely support large hail and severe wind gusts, but the threat should be more isolated with southward extent. ..Broyles.. 08/06/2025

Day 3 Outlook Image

SPC Aug 6, 2025 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
⛈️THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY🌪️
Additional Details Here.

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon and evening across the northern Plains. Isolated very large hail and severe gusts will be the primary threats. ...Northern Plains... A mid-level shortwave ridge will move eastward across the northern Plains on Thursday, as southwesterly flow becomes established across the northern High Plains. At the surface, a low will deepen in western South Dakota, as a cold front moves southward across western North Dakota. To the southeast of the front, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place across most of the northern Plains. Surface dewpoints across this airmass should be from the mid 60s to the lower 70s F. Ahead of the front and near the surface low, an axis of strong instability is forecast to develop over the western Dakotas by afternoon. Isolated convective initiation will likely take place near the instability axis and front in the afternoon. Surface-based thunderstorms are expected to develop and move eastward across the northern Plains during the late afternoon and evening. A severe threat appears likely. Forecast soundings near the instability axis at 21Z are impressive, with MLCAPE near 5000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.5 C/km. This environment will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense cores. A potential for severe gusts will also exist, with a greater threat in the evening if cells can congeal into a short line segment. An isolated tornado threat could also develop. Any severe threat is expected to persist into the mid to late evening. Further to the east-southeastward into Minnesota, and southward into South Dakota, large-scale ascent is forecast to be weak. For this reason, convective coverage is forecast to be limited. However, isolated convection could initiate along zones of low-level convergence and maximized surface heating. Any cell that could develop and persist, could obtain an isolated threat for hail and severe gusts. ...Montana... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies on Thursday, as the exit region of an associated jet max moves into the northern High Plains. The western edge of a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place across parts of central Montana, where model forecast suggest MLCAPE could reach the 1200 to 2500 J/kg range. Convective initiation is expected in the higher terrain of west-central Montana, and this activity will move eastward into the stronger instability during the evening. Additional storms appear likely to develop in northeastern Montana during the mid to late evening, within an upslope flow regime. In addition to the instability, moderate to strong deep-layer shear will be in place over the northern High Plains, mainly due to influence of the mid-level jet. This environment should be favorable for severe storms, with large hail and severe gusts possible in the late afternoon and evening. ..Broyles.. 08/06/2025

Day 2 Outlook Image

SPC Aug 6, 2025 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
⛈️THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS🌪️
Additional Details Here.

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND PART OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and over part of northern Minnesota today and tonight. ...Northern/Central Plains to IA/MO and northern MN... Low-amplitude upper ridging will persist across the region today. Moderate upper level west/northwesterly flow around 40 kt at 500 mb will spread across the northern Rockies to the Upper Midwest vicinity amid nebulous large-scale ascent. At the surface, a seasonally moist airmass is in place, with generally 60-70 F dewpoints present beneath a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates (weaker further north). This will support a corridor of moderate to strong instability across SD/NE into parts of MN/IA and vicinity. A decaying MCS may be located over IA or the Lower MO Valley at 12z. Some locally strong wind gusts could occur with this activity before weakening during the morning. Some guidance redevelops convection across the Lower-MO/Mid-MS Valley during the afternoon/evening across this area, possibly aided by any remnant MCV or outflow. This activity would conditionally pose a damaging wind risk. Additional convection may develop near the Black Hills into western NE along surface boundary/residual outflow and within southeasterly low-level upslope flow within a very moist/unstable airmass. Without any stronger forcing mechanism, coverage may be low and confidence is low. However, any storm developing within this strongly unstable airmass will encounter supercell wind profiles. A conditional risk for large hail and damaging winds will exist, but given uncertainty, will maintain Marginal risk (level 1 of 5). Further north across northern MN, a few storms may develop along the southern periphery of the Canadian Prairies shortwave upper trough and surface low. Lapse rates will be weaker across this area and the favorable thermodynamic environment will be narrow. Any stronger storms will likely remain close to the international border, but could produce locally strong gusts or marginal hail. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 08/06/2025

Day 1 Outlook Image

SPC Aug 6, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
⛈️THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY🌪️
Additional Details Here.

STATUS REPORT ON WW 574 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE PHP TO 40 ENE MBG TO 45 WNW ABR TO 50 NE ABR. ..JEWELL..08/06/25 ATTN...WFO...BIS...ABR...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 574 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC013-025-029-037-039-045-049-051-057-059-065-069-089-091-107- 109-115-117-119-129-060240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CLARK CODINGTON DAY DEUEL EDMUNDS FAULK GRANT HAMLIN HAND HUGHES HYDE MCPHERSON MARSHALL POTTER ROBERTS SPINK STANLEY SULLY WALWORTH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

WW 0574 Status Image

SPC Tornado Watch 574 Status Reports
⛈️WFO...BIS🌪️
Additional Details Here.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 574 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 400 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of South-Central North Dakota North-Central and Central South Dakota * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 400 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop and intensify through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening. The stronger storms will probably become supercellular and pose a risk for large hail and severe gusts. A couple of tornadoes are possible with the stronger supercells. Upscale growth into a cluster of storms is forecast this evening with the severe threat gradually becoming predominately a wind risk. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles north northeast of Bismarck ND to 20 miles southeast of Pierre SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24020. ...Smith

WW 0574 Image

SPC Tornado Watch 574
⛈️
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY🌪️
Additional Details Here.

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms with an accompanying risk for large hail and severe wind gusts will persist the remainder of the evening/early overnight. ...Northern Plains Vicinity... Strong to severe storms may persist/develop over the next several hours, mainly across parts of SD ahead of a surface low and cold front. Some marginally severe storms have occurred, with hail from around nickel to half dollar size noted in local storm reports the past few hours. Wind gusts from 45-60 mph have also occurred. Overall, convection outside of the ongoing cluster across southeast ND has not been very robust. Looking at the 00z RAOB from ABR, 0-3km lapse rate are lackluster (around 5.7 C/km), limiting vertical accelerations in the low-levels. Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates are indicated (around 7.5 C/km 700-500 mb) amid 2000+ MLCAPE across SD, decreasing with north and east extent. Vertical shear also remains favorable for storm organization, if more robust convection can evolve behind the ND cluster. Evening CAMs guidance still suggests an MCS may develop across parts of SD downstream into the Mid-MO Valley vicinity overnight. However, stronger capping is evident into NE/IA. Given uncertainty amid an at least modestly favorable environment, severe probabilities have only been trimmed mainly across the western and northern outlook area (WY/MT into ND) where confidence is greatest potential has lessened. Severe probabilities across SD and vicinity will be maintained. ..Leitman.. 08/06/2025

Day 1 Outlook Image

SPC Aug 6, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
⛈️THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA🌪️
Additional Details Here.

STATUS REPORT ON WW 574 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE PHP TO 10 NNE MBG TO 50 SSW JMS TO 35 E JMS. ..JEWELL..08/06/25 ATTN...WFO...BIS...ABR...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 574 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC021-045-051-060140- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DICKEY LAMOURE MCINTOSH SDC013-021-041-045-049-059-065-069-089-107-115-117-119-129- 060140- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CAMPBELL DEWEY EDMUNDS FAULK HAND HUGHES HYDE MCPHERSON POTTER SPINK STANLEY SULLY WALWORTH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

WW 0574 Status Image

SPC Tornado Watch 574 Status Reports
⛈️WFO...BIS🌪️
Additional Details Here.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 574 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 400 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of South-Central North Dakota North-Central and Central South Dakota * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 400 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop and intensify through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening. The stronger storms will probably become supercellular and pose a risk for large hail and severe gusts. A couple of tornadoes are possible with the stronger supercells. Upscale growth into a cluster of storms is forecast this evening with the severe threat gradually becoming predominately a wind risk. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles north northeast of Bismarck ND to 20 miles southeast of Pierre SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24020. ...Smith

WW 0574 Image

SPC Tornado Watch 574
⛈️
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY🌪️
Additional Details Here.

STATUS REPORT ON WW 574 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..JEWELL..08/05/25 ATTN...WFO...BIS...ABR...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 574 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC015-021-029-037-043-045-047-051-059-065-085-093-060040- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BURLEIGH DICKEY EMMONS GRANT KIDDER LAMOURE LOGAN MCINTOSH MORTON OLIVER SIOUX STUTSMAN SDC013-021-031-041-045-049-059-065-069-089-107-115-117-119-129- 137-060040- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CAMPBELL CORSON DEWEY EDMUNDS FAULK HAND HUGHES HYDE MCPHERSON POTTER SPINK STANLEY SULLY WALWORTH ZIEBACH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE

WW 0574 Status Image

SPC Tornado Watch 574 Status Reports
⛈️WFO...BIS🌪️
Additional Details Here.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 574 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 400 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of South-Central North Dakota North-Central and Central South Dakota * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 400 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop and intensify through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening. The stronger storms will probably become supercellular and pose a risk for large hail and severe gusts. A couple of tornadoes are possible with the stronger supercells. Upscale growth into a cluster of storms is forecast this evening with the severe threat gradually becoming predominately a wind risk. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles north northeast of Bismarck ND to 20 miles southeast of Pierre SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24020. ...Smith

WW 0574 Image

SPC Tornado Watch 574
⛈️
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY🌪️
Additional Details Here.

STATUS REPORT ON WW 574 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..JEWELL..08/05/25 ATTN...WFO...BIS...ABR...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 574 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC015-021-029-037-043-045-047-051-059-065-085-093-060040- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BURLEIGH DICKEY EMMONS GRANT KIDDER LAMOURE LOGAN MCINTOSH MORTON OLIVER SIOUX STUTSMAN SDC013-021-031-041-045-049-059-065-069-089-107-115-117-119-129- 137-060040- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CAMPBELL CORSON DEWEY EDMUNDS FAULK HAND HUGHES HYDE MCPHERSON POTTER SPINK STANLEY SULLY WALWORTH ZIEBACH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE

WW 0574 Status Image

SPC Tornado Watch 574 Status Reports
⛈️WFO...BIS🌪️
Additional Details Here.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 574 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 400 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of South-Central North Dakota North-Central and Central South Dakota * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 400 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop and intensify through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening. The stronger storms will probably become supercellular and pose a risk for large hail and severe gusts. A couple of tornadoes are possible with the stronger supercells. Upscale growth into a cluster of storms is forecast this evening with the severe threat gradually becoming predominately a wind risk. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles north northeast of Bismarck ND to 20 miles southeast of Pierre SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24020. ...Smith

WW 0574 Image

SPC Tornado Watch 574
⛈️
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY🌪️
Additional Details Here.

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with an accompanying risk for large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes will be possible this afternoon through much of the evening across the Dakotas. ...20z Update... No changes were made to the D1 Convective Outlook. Air mass recovery trends continue to be monitored across the Dakotas in the wake of morning convection. Breaks in the cloud cover have led to heating across central/western South Dakota to the southern North Dakota line. Warm moist air continues to spread northward south of the differential heating boundary located across southern ND into central SD. It appears that redevelopment/re-intensification of thunderstorm activity is likely through the afternoon as further destabilization continues. See MCD#1890 for more detailed information on expected storm evolution through the afternoon. ..Thornton.. 08/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025/ ...Northern Plains... Visible-satellite/radar mosaic imagery late this morning shows a cluster of sub-severe thunderstorms associated with a lead lobe of mid-level ascent/MCV moving through the base of a larger-scale trough centered over MT/Saskatchewan. Deleterious effects of widespread cloud cover over far northern SD into ND will likely hinder appreciable destabilization through the early afternoon. However, earlier forecast thinking of a differential heating zone becoming more focused along the ND-SD border to the east of a weak cyclone will potentially become consequential for the severe risk later this afternoon/evening. A reservoir of adequately rich low-level moisture with dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s deg F will likely protrude northward into southern ND as the airmass destabilizes this afternoon. Cloud breaks will contribute to moderate to strong buoyancy (1500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) to the south of more stable conditions likely being maintained throughout the day near the Canadian border. Forecast soundings show enlarged low-level hodographs by mid-late afternoon and into the evening with a 40-kt southerly LLJ centered on SD. Short-term model guidance indicates renewed storm development is most likely east of the low along the differential heating zone with this activity spreading east into more vorticity-rich air. Seasonably large uncertainty remains regarding this forecast during the 22-02z period in which peak severe may occur. Supercells capable of all hazards will be possible before clusters evolve and the propensity for cold pool coalescence becomes detrimental for the supercell threat and wind becomes the primary hazard later this evening. Considerable uncertainty exists overnight on the potential evolution of a cluster and an incipient wind threat into parts of the MO Valley and Upper Midwest.

Day 1 Outlook Image

SPC Aug 5, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
⛈️THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE DAKOTAS🌪️
Additional Details Here.

STATUS FOR WATCH 0574 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET

WW 0574 Status Image

SPC Tornado Watch 574 Status Reports
⛈️🌪️
Additional Details Here.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 574 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 400 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of South-Central North Dakota North-Central and Central South Dakota * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 400 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop and intensify through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening. The stronger storms will probably become supercellular and pose a risk for large hail and severe gusts. A couple of tornadoes are possible with the stronger supercells. Upscale growth into a cluster of storms is forecast this evening with the severe threat gradually becoming predominately a wind risk. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles north northeast of Bismarck ND to 20 miles southeast of Pierre SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24020. ...Smith

WW 0574 Image

SPC Tornado Watch 574
⛈️
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY🌪️
Additional Details Here.

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from late afternoon into Thursday night across the northern Great Plains. Isolated very large hail and significant severe wind gusts may occur. ...Northern Great Plains... While mesoscale details at this timeframe are unclear, potential exists for higher-end severe intensity and coverage on Thursday late afternoon into the night. A shortwave trough will amplify across the Northwest and northern Rockies, as a vigorous impulse digs southeastward from coastal BC. Downstream, the elevated mixed layer will expand across the Dakotas and MN. A lack of widespread convective overturning on D2 will support seasonably rich boundary-layer moisture advecting northwestward across the Dakotas to eastern MT. This will yield large to potentially extreme buoyancy by peak heating Thursday, centered on northern NE into southern ND. Scattered thunderstorms will develop off the higher terrain of southwest/south-central MT by late afternoon to early evening. Storms will spread east-northeast and impinge on the pronounced buoyancy plume during the evening/night, potentially sustaining an intensifying MCS. Meanwhile, some guidance suggests separate late-day storm development will occur along the strengthening baroclinic zone in ND, with isolated storms possible southward along a lee trough. This activity too could grow upscale, mainly in ND, and progress towards the Red River Valley on Thursday night. Significant severe appears most likely in the ND portion of the level 2-SLGT risk. Very large hail is possible in initial supercells, in addition to significant severe gusts during the downstream cluster/MCS phase. ...Upper Midwest... Nebulous, low-probability severe potential is evident along the northeast lobe of the expansive buoyancy plume over the central states on Thursday into Thursday night. Minor MCVs from remnants of D2 convection may focus localized corridors of diurnal storm development from the IA/IL/WI border region to western Upper MI. More probable convective development should occur Thursday night, north-northeast of the southern High Plains to Lower MO Valley low-level jet. Amid modest northwesterlies but weak lapse rates in the mid levels, mainly strong to perhaps marginally severe intensities are anticipated. ..Grams.. 08/05/2025

Day 3 Outlook Image

SPC Aug 5, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
⛈️THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS🌪️
Additional Details Here.

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the North-Central States on Wednesday into Wednesday night. ...North-Central States... Low probability severe potential remains evident across the region with multiple scenarios anticipated amid fairly nebulous large-scale ascent. Initial threat should be in the southeastern lobe across the Lower MO Valley vicinity with potential for an ongoing MCS. As discussed in the SWODY1, considerable uncertainty exists overnight with evolution of such an MCS but the overall signal is for a weakening trend after 12Z. A distinct minority of guidance indicates some potential for diurnal intensification with a remnant MCV. Sporadic strong gusts capable of localized damage seems plausible in the morning and perhaps into the afternoon. Conditionally, the most favorable environment for severe should be across the Black Hills vicinity and the NE Panhandle as convective outflow from late D1 is pushed south into the central High Plains. North of this outflow, a moderately supportive supercell environment should exist. At least isolated thunderstorms should develop late afternoon to early evening. But low-amplitude ridging between a shortwave trough in the southern Canadian Prairies and a minor trough in the Northwest should modulate overall coverage. Isolated large hail and severe gusts should be anticipated into late evening. Downstream low-level warm theta-e advection should be centered over the Mid-MO to Upper MS Valleys on Wednesday night where a few marginally severe storms are possible. A few strong storms may also occur across northern MN during the afternoon, owing to trailing influence of the southern Canadian Prairies wave. Scattered storm coverage should be confined along the international border, but modest mid-level lapse rates should temper convective vigor. ..Grams.. 08/05/2025

Day 2 Outlook Image

SPC Aug 5, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
⛈️THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
NORTH-CENTRAL STATES🌪️
Additional Details Here.

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with an accompanying risk for large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes will be possible this afternoon through much of the evening across the Dakotas. ...Northern Plains... Visible-satellite/radar mosaic imagery late this morning shows a cluster of sub-severe thunderstorms associated with a lead lobe of mid-level ascent/MCV moving through the base of a larger-scale trough centered over MT/Saskatchewan. Deleterious effects of widespread cloud cover over far northern SD into ND will likely hinder appreciable destabilization through the early afternoon. However, earlier forecast thinking of a differential heating zone becoming more focused along the ND-SD border to the east of a weak cyclone will potentially become consequential for the severe risk later this afternoon/evening. A reservoir of adequately rich low-level moisture with dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s deg F will likely protrude northward into southern ND as the airmass destabilizes this afternoon. Cloud breaks will contribute to moderate to strong buoyancy (1500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) to the south of more stable conditions likely being maintained throughout the day near the Canadian border. Forecast soundings show enlarged low-level hodographs by mid-late afternoon and into the evening with a 40-kt southerly LLJ centered on SD. Short-term model guidance indicates renewed storm development is most likely east of the low along the differential heating zone with this activity spreading east into more vorticity-rich air. Seasonably large uncertainty remains regarding this forecast during the 22-02z period in which peak severe may occur. Supercells capable of all hazards will be possible before clusters evolve and the propensity for cold pool coalescence becomes detrimental for the supercell threat and wind becomes the primary hazard later this evening. Considerable uncertainty exists overnight on the potential evolution of a cluster and an incipient wind threat into parts of the MO Valley and Upper Midwest. ..Smith/Wendt.. 08/05/2025

Day 1 Outlook Image

SPC Aug 5, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
⛈️THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE DAKOTAS🌪️
Additional Details Here.

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for severe gusts and large hail will be possible across parts of the Dakotas today into this evening. ...Northern Plains... Warm-air advection showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across the western Dakotas, where the western edge of the low-level jet overlaps the eastern edge of the steep mid-level lapse rates. These storms will likely continue northeastward this morning, perhaps even expanding in coverage, as the low-level jet persists and large-scale ascent attendant to an approaching shortwave trough strengthens. Occasionally strong updrafts could produce hail and a damaging gust or two. Cloud cover and outflow associated with these storms could result in an effective warm front extending from a weak low over western SD eastward across central and eastern SD. The exact location and sharpness of this front remain uncertain. Given that the shortwave trough will likely remain well west of the region, low-level convergence near this boundary as well as the surface low should both be areas where convective initiation is most likely this afternoon. Ample buoyancy and vertical shear will be in place for supercells with the initial development, with large hail and damaging gusts as the primary risks. Stronger low to mid-level flow may be in place across eastern SD, contributing to greater low-level shear and relatively higher tornado potential. Primary concern across eastern SD is whether or not the warmer low to mid-level temperatures inhibit the development of mature updrafts. One other scenario that seems plausible is for storms on southern periphery the ongoing cluster to become increasingly surface based as they move eastward/northeastward with time. Given current trends and recent guidance, this would most likely occur along the eastern ND/SD border after 20Z. As previously mentioned, hail is possible within this cluster throughout the day, but the transition to a more surface-based character could introduce the threat for stronger gusts as well. A strengthening low-level jet coupled with persistent mid-level westerlies support the potential for upscale growth in a east-southeastward progressing MCS. Damaging gusts will be possible with this MCS, particularly over SD, but increasing low-level stability should result in a gradually diminishing severe potential with eastward/southeastward extend into northeast NE, northwest IA, and southwest MN. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 08/05/2025

Day 1 Outlook Image

SPC Aug 5, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
⛈️THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA🌪️
Additional Details Here.

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6... On Friday, a mid-level trough and an associated speed max is forecast to move into the northern Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place over much of the northern Plains, where surface dewpoints are likely to be in the lower to mid 70s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, moderate to strong instability is expected to develop. Along the northwestern edge of this unstable airmass, thunderstorms should form in parts of central and eastern North Dakota. Convective coverage is forecast to expand southward into South Dakota during the evening. Moderate to strong deep-layer shear associated with the speed max will be favorable for a severe threat during the afternoon and evening. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts and a tornado threat will be possible. On Saturday, the mid-level trough and associated cold front are forecast to move eastward into the upper Mississippi and mid Missouri Valleys. Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing along and near the front during the morning, with additional thunderstorm development taking place further southeast in the afternoon. Moderate instability and deep-layer shear is forecast across much of the region, suggesting that a severe threat will again be possible. There is some uncertainty as to how much the airmass will be negatively affected by the morning convection. Also, model forecasts suggest that the greatest convective potential will be during the overnight period on Saturday. For this reason, will not add a threat area for Saturday at this time. On Sunday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move across the north-central U.S., being positioned from the northern Plains to the central Rockies by afternoon. A moderately unstable airmass is forecast further to the east, from the upper Mississippi Valley southward into the mid Missouri Valley. An isolated severe threat will be possible Sunday afternoon along and near the instability axis. However, the mid-level trough is forecast to remain well to the west of the instability axis, which should limit large-scale ascent over the unstable airmass, helping to keep any severe threat isolated. ...Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8... A low-amplitude mid-level trough is forecast to move into the upper Mississippi Valley on Monday, and into the western Great Lakes on Tuesday. Further southwest, a mid-level low is forecast across the central Plains. Thunderstorms will be possible on Monday and Tuesday afternoon, along the northern edge of a moist airmass from the central Plains northeastward to the Great Lakes. Model forecasts suggest that deep-layer shear will be relatively weak. Although convective coverage and any associated severe threat will likely remain isolated, a few marginally severe storms could occur in areas that heat up the most.

Day 4-8 Outlook Image

SPC Aug 5, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
⛈️DISCUSSION🌪️
Additional Details Here.

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible on Thursday from parts of the northern Plains westward into the northern Rockies. ...Northern Plains... At mid-levels, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move eastward across the northern Plains on Thursday, as a speed max moves over the top of the ridge into southern Canada. At the surface, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place across most of the northern Plains. The ridge will move eastward toward the upper Mississippi Valley during the day. In its wake, isolated convective development is expected during the mid to late afternoon over the western Dakotas. This convection should remain elevated, due to a shallow capping inversion around 750 mb that is evident on forecast soundings. During the early to mid evening, some of the convection could become surface-based and be associated with a potential for isolated severe gusts and hail. ...Northern Rockies... A mid-level trough is forecast to move across the Pacific Northwest on Thursday, as flow remains southwesterly ahead of the trough over the northern Rockies. At the surface, dewpoints are forecast to be from the mid 40s to lower 50s F throughout much of the region. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop in the higher terrain, with more isolated convection expected along an axis of instability across central Montana. By afternoon, forecast soundings along the axis of instability have weak instability in place (MLCAPE around 500 J/kg), with 0-6 km shear mostly in the 45 to 55 knot range. This, combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates, should be enough for an isolated severe threat. A few severe wind gusts and hail will be possible. ..Broyles.. 08/05/2025

Day 3 Outlook Image

SPC Aug 5, 2025 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
⛈️THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROCKIES🌪️
Additional Details Here.

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms associated with severe gusts and hail will be possible across parts of the north-central U.S. on Wednesday. ...Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... An anticyclonic mid-level flow pattern with rising heights will be in place across the north-central U.S. on Wednesday, with primarily westerly flow over the northern Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from Nebraska into the Dakotas. Along the eastern edge of this moist airmass, elevated thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing at the start of the period. These storms are expected to move eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley, as moderate to strong instability develops further to the west. Convection may initiate during the afternoon across parts of this unstable airmass, where low-level convergence is sufficient. However, convective coverage will likely remain very isolated, due to a lack of large-scale ascent. Any cell that can develop into a thunderstorm and persist could have a severe threat, due to the instability, moderate deep-layer shear and steep low to mid-level lapse rates. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be the primary threats. For this outlook, will maintain a Marginal Risk due to the conditionality of the forecast, and due to the expected isolated nature of the threat. ..Broyles.. 08/05/2025

Day 2 Outlook Image

SPC Aug 5, 2025 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
⛈️THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S🌪️
Additional Details Here.

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for severe gusts and large hail will be possible across parts of the Dakotas today into this evening. ...Northern Plains... An upper shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will shift east across the Dakotas and the Canadian Prairies today/tonight. At the surface, a cold front will develop east/southeast across MT into the western Dakotas during the afternoon. Ahead of the front southeasterly low-level flow will maintain low to mid 60s dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. This will support moderate to strong destabilization across portions of the western Dakotas and western NE (MLCAPE 2500+ J/kg), with more modest destabilization further north and east. Around 30-40 kt of mid/upper level northwesterly flow atop vertically veering low-level wind profiles will support supercell storms initially across western portions of the outlook area. This will overlap with the corridor of stronger instability and scattered storms produce large hail and strong/severe gusts will be possible. Toward evening, a 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet is expected to develop and upscale development into an MCS is possible across eastern portions of the outlook area. Forecast guidance varies regarding the degree of capping that will exist with eastward extent, but potential for an organized MCS producing strong/severe gusts appears possible across eastern SD, and may persist east/southeast toward the Mid-MO Valley during the nighttime hours. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 08/05/2025

Day 1 Outlook Image

SPC Aug 5, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
⛈️THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA🌪️
Additional Details Here.

STATUS REPORT ON WW 573 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW SHR TO 15 NNW MLS. WW 573 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 050500Z. ..GLEASON..08/05/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...GGW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 573 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC003-087-050500- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIG HORN ROSEBUD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

WW 0573 Status Image

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 573 Status Reports
⛈️WFO...BYZ🌪️
Additional Details Here.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 573 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 440 PM MDT Mon Aug 4 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Eastern Montana * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 440 PM until 1100 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms should spread east-northeastward this afternoon and evening while posing a threat for mainly scattered severe/damaging winds up to 60-75 mph. Isolated large hail around 1-1.5 inches in diameter may also occur with any of the stronger cells that can persist. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 100 statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles west of Great Falls MT to 75 miles south of Glasgow MT. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 571...WW 572... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Gleason

WW 0573 Image

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 573
⛈️
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY🌪️
Additional Details Here.

STATUS REPORT ON WW 572 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE TAD TO 45 W SPD TO 25 WNW SPD TO 5 SSE SPD TO 5 SSW EHA. ..JEWELL..08/05/25 ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 572 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-071-050440- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA LAS ANIMAS NMC059-050440- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE UNION OKC025-050440- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CIMARRON TXC111-050440-

WW 0572 Status Image

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 572 Status Reports
⛈️WFO...PUB🌪️
Additional Details Here.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 572 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 405 PM MDT Mon Aug 4 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Colorado Far Northeast New Mexico The Western Oklahoma Panhandle The Far Northwest Texas Panhandle * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 405 PM until 1000 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Slow-moving supercells should pose a threat for mainly large to very large hail this afternoon and evening. Peak hailstone diameters may reach up to 2-3 inches on an isolated basis. Occasional severe/damaging winds could also occur if any clusters can form, although this potential remains uncertain. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles northwest of Lamar CO to 30 miles south southeast of Clayton NM. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 571... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 32010. ...Gleason

WW 0572 Image

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 572
⛈️
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY🌪️
Additional Details Here.

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0803 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe gusts and large to very large hail will be possible this afternoon through this evening from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central/southern High Plains. ...Northern Rockies vicinity... An upper shortwave trough, now pivoting across ID will continue to spread east tonight. An arc of strong to severe storms extending across central and eastern MT is expected pose a severe wind/hail risk the next few hours as convection develops north and east across WW 573. Reference MCD 1887 for short term details. Further west across ID and portions of western MT, the Marginal risk has been removed as the main forcing shifts northeast while instability and shear gradually decrease over the next couple of hours. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Isolated cells will continue to pose a risk for large to very large hail and severe/damaging gusts over the next several hours. An increasing low-level jet this evening will sustain convection, and may briefly increase the tornado risk this evening. Reference MCD 1888 for more short term details. ..Leitman.. 08/05/2025

Day 1 Outlook Image

SPC Aug 5, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
⛈️THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS🌪️
Additional Details Here.