The Light Knight

That's a shame, but it's been a great run and a lot of fun. Cheers for all the effort

Congrats mate, that's a brilliant achievement.

How does Carlos Baleba compare to Man United's current midfield options?
He's a slightly more technical Ugarte.
He's better at everything than Mainoo.
He's an actual midfielder unlike Bruno.
He can still run unlike Casemiro.
Is he a £100m+ upgrade on each one? No, but he would be the best of the 5.

I'm not going to be upset at all if Mbeumo does follow Frank to Spurs, since we already have a left footed right winger who plays well in Amorim's system and is 3 years younger. Sure Amad can play wingback too, but a good wingback wouldn't cost as much as Mbeumo.

Decided to look at the ages of a couple random squads after hearing them mentioned over the weekend.
Chelsea qualified for the CL with the youngest squad, not using any player over the age of 27.
Conte may leave Napoli having won the title, maybe doesn't want to rebuild a squad with no u-23 players.

While this thread from months ago is pretty on the money overall, it really was using Mount over Ugarte that has me very worried about Amorim. It's like he has zero understanding of why Casemiro improved in the quarter and semi finals versus earlier in the season.

Ultimately, it's easy to see why United are favourites with the underlying numbers and the 2 Spurs injuries.
The concern for me is that Spurs, without their best passers, will play a more physical midfield which is United's kryptonite, especially when getting pressed while playing out from the back.

Bonus look at the Europa League numbers, where United have unquestionably been the best team in the competition - undefeated, the best underlying numbers despite the tougher run to the final, most goals scored.
Spurs' sole edge has been having a good shotstopper over United's average (number) one.

Not really minded to do a full breakdown of "Lads, it's Spurs" but here's the underlying numbers vs United in the PL.
They create far better chances than United - how will that be affected by missing their 2 most creative midfielders?
Both sides give up huge chances, but United concede fewer shots.

One spot of hope for United is that Athletic Bilbao have not faced any real challenge in Europe so far. They had the much easier group stage opponents of the 2 sides, and their relatively challenging knockout games were made far easier with 3 red cards (2 early) across 4 matches.

Hard working Gorka Guruzeta (28) is most likely to lead the line in La Liga, but January signing Maroan Sannadi (24) has started all 4 knockout round matches since his arrival (though not playing quite enough minutes to earn a radar).

Instead look to the versatile Alex Berenguer (29), who has also played on both wings and up front, and will provide a more creative threat than Sancet.
On the flanks will be the Williams brothers, with Inaki (30) on the right and Nico (22) on the left, who are Athletic’s top scorers in Europe.

Top scorer Oihan Sancet (25) is set to miss at least the first leg through injury, which will be a relief to United since the attacking midfielder is the Basque side’s elite goal threat. Youngster Unai Gomez (21) has not shown a similar ability so is unlikely to start in the number 10 spot.

Mikel Jaurezigar (21) is the primary ball winner in the Athletic midfield. He is typically partnered with at least one of either Benat Prados (24), the more defensive option, or Inigo Ruiz De Galarreta (31), their best passer.

Fellow veteran Yuri Berchiche (35) provides a passing outlet from the left, with deputy Adama Boiro (22) a more mobile and defensive alternative. Squad player Inigo Lekue (32) started both QF legs against Rangers when Berchiche was injured.

Veteran Oscar de Marcos (36), sole survivor from the Bielsa era, still has the right back spot by merit in his final season thanks to his excellent ability in possession.
Andoni Gorosabel (28) has seen plenty of minutes when de Marcos has needed resting and is a capable understudy.

Daniel Vivian (25) is Athletic’s most regular starter at CB with excellent passing stats backed up by solid all round numbers
Yeray Alvarez (30) has been his most common partner when fit, though Aitor Paredes (25) has filled in for both across all competitions.

Unai Simon (27) missed the first few months of the season, but has regained his spot in the league with some solid shotstopping.
Julen Agirrezabala (24) was even better in that regard and has continued as number 1 in Europe.

It’s taken until the semi finals, but Man United are finally underdogs in the Europa League. Athletic Bilbao are 4th place in La Liga (5th best in expected goal difference). They boast a good attack, but their success is based on a suffocating defence, with the fewest shots allowed in Spain.

Are United way better than Lyon on paper? Yes, by pretty much every metric in the Europa League this season, especially when counting Lyon's softer schedule.

Should Onana say United are way better than Lyon on paper and draw focus on himself and his team's ability to crash and burn? Probably not😶

Argentine international Thiago Almada (23), a winter loan signing from Botafogo to replace squad player Said Benrahma, has 1 goal and 2 assists in his first 500 minutes in Ligue 1. His numbers in Brazil were respectable after being a young star in MLS and is another option for the left flank.

With the injuries in attack, Lyon probably field a midfield 3. Previous manager Pierre Sage froze out and sold elite ballwinner Maxence Caqueret (25) right before getting sacked so expect Tanner Tessmann (23) to join Tolisso and Matic. Jordan Veretout (30) has mostly been Matic's (lesser) backup.

Alexandre Lacazette (33) has shared the number 9 spot with Georges Mikautadze (24) under Fonseca, with the veteran still having the edge in terms of shot quality, creativity, and hold up play. Mikautadze has deputized on the left at times, and may be used there against United with Fofana injured.

Rayan Cherki (21) is the team’s star player, either as a 10 or off the right, with elite creativity, dribbling ability and a solid goal threat. Ernest Nuamah (21) and Malick Fofana (20) have been Lyon’s go to wingers on the right and left but both are likely injured for the first leg this week.

Nemanja Matic (36) is somehow still chugging along with his phenomenal passing still present- elite defensive work not so much. Corentin Tolisso (30) is sometimes an attacking partner for Matic in a 2 man midfield, but in a midfield 3 has been a hardworking 10 with the underlying numbers to match.

Lyon’s first choice fullbacks, Ainsley Maitland-Niles (27) and Nicolás Tagliafico (32), are asked to put in a tonne of work off the ball and not do much in terms of dribbling and crossing.

Lyon’s most common CB partnership has been converted fullback Clinton Mata (32) and big summer signing Moussa Niakhate (29), who have both been successful on the ground, relatively untested in the air and average on the ball.

Brazillian goalkeeper, Lucas Perri (27), has had a great debut season in France, with excellent shot stopping numbers. He’s been even better in the Europa League and the one bright spot in Lyon’s faltering backline.

Sticking to a recent theme, Lyon, United’s Europa League QF opponents, are 5th in Ligue 1 and the 7th best team by expected goals, with a good attack undercut by their defence. They have improved under new coach Paulo Fonseca with 8 wins from 10 so do have a CL race to distract them, unlike United.

For a slight Euro-centric context on the Estevao numbers, here's how 30 year old Memphis and 38 year old Hulk got on as forwards in Brazil last year. Obviously 2 players at the other end of their careers, but the league isn't THAT easy