Brian Scheid

Trump fired the Commissioner of Labor Statistics by tweet just now, in case you're wondering about how reliable job numbers might be getting over the next 3.5 years

No cuts in 2025?
With just 3 FOMC meetings before year end and inflation still moving away from the Fed's 2% target, the likelihood of 2025 without a rate cut is increasing
"I'd view it as a materially higher risk than what the market is pricing," says @peark.es
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...

As US stocks soar fears of a bubble climb
"But the problem with bubbles is that it is next to impossible to predict when they will pop, or whether the air will simply be released slowly as markets adjust to more realistic valuations," says @jhu.edu Prof Steve Hanke
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...

US jobs market reaches "steady state" but for how long?
"Employers are like deer in the headlights, uncertain what's coming and frozen in place," said @aaronsojourner.org "Not hiring and not firing."
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
w/ @prestonmui.bsky.social & @econberger.bsky.social

"Ironically, putting political pressure on the Fed may have the opposite desired effect — keeping the Fed on hold in an effort to appear fully independent."
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...

A “perfect” week for the S&P 500, from Howard Silverblatt:
The week opened with a new intraday (6,336.08) and closing high (6,305.60), and continued that path for the entire week, as it went on to set a new closing record on Tues, Wed, Thurs & Friday.
There have been 22 perfect weeks since 1928

breaking

Inflation is hitting differently, from Fed's Beige Book:
"Restaurants reported depressed volumes as increasingly value-conscious consumers traded down or opted to eat at home"
"Spending at restaurants and hotels also rose with particular strength reported in higher-end and luxury establishments"

Trump on Powell: “I was surprised he was appointed” (Trump appointed him)

Based on earnings estimates and valuations, @peark.es estimates the market is pricing just a 5% chance that Trump's steepest tariffs will actually get implemented.
"That is just ludicrously low," Pearkes said. www.spglobal.com/market-intel...

Will stock market vigilantes fight Trump's tariffs?
Tariff threats are escalating by the day, but the US stock market continues to rally, emboldening threats and setting up a potential clash between Trump policy and an emerging group of stock market vigilantes
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...

Great point, although I'd argue that the relatively hardness of Van Halen's music decreased as their neon spandex use increased. Someone needs to create a metric similar to baseball's Mendoza line that compares a band's rock power to its spandex use

Absolute ripper. Hardest song ever performed in neon spandex

US teenage unemployment is surging and more teens are dropping out of the labor market
"So you can think of rising teen unemployment as the 'canary in the coal mine' warning of a softer job market ahead," says @sassermodestino.bsky.social
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...

Fed minutes:
"Several participants noted that firms not directly subject to tariffs might take the opportunity to increase their prices if other prices rise, particularly those of complementary products."

Is the US jobs market treading water?
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...

A moribund spring for equities has quickly transitioned into a scorching summer as the S&P 500 has hit new record highs and investors appear undeterred by tariffs or geopolitical uncertainty www.spglobal.com/market-intel...

For months, economists observed a disconnect in data: inflation generally moderated and unemployment remained low at roughly 4%, while consumer sentiment and economic expectations plummeted. Now, data appears to be catching up with the pessimistic economic signals.
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...

Will inflation impacts of Trump's tariffs be short-lived or more persistent? Fed Chair Powell says it depends how they're ultimately implemented

No hire/no fire jobs market may not be an economic drag
"It is a difficult state of play for workers looking for a new job, but it is supportive of lower inflation, higher productivity and persistent economic growth in the long run," says Thomas Simons w/ Jefferies www.spglobal.com/market-intel...

POWELL:
There's not a lot of layoffs, but there's not a lot of job creation. If you're out of work it's hard to find a job, but very few people are being laid off at this point.
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...

"I think we're seeing a resurgence in IPO activity," says Mike Bellin w/ PwC
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...

Institutions sold a net $50.78 B in stocks in May, up from $30.93 B in April and above the net $42.73 B average sold by this investment group over the past year: S&P Global Market Intelligence
The sell-off took place as the S&P 500 rallied nearly 6.2% www.spglobal.com/market-intel...

No rate cuts in 2025?
"Investors are pricing in about two rate cuts by year-end, but there's a reasonable chance we don't get any, especially if the unemployment rate doesn't surge above 4.5%" says Sonu Varghese w/ Carson Wealth
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...

But what team is hungrier? What player, when you look at them, you just know they want to win? What player realizes that tonight is the night that they need to step up? How will I answer any of these questions without tuning in?

"The impact of tariffs, if any, will become clearer over time, but we do not anticipate a surge in inflation, especially if more deals are made" said Julien Lafargue, chief market strategist at Barclays Private Bank
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...

RIP Brian Wilson, only 23 when he wrote and produced 'Pet Sounds' (if you lack appreciation for this album watch 'Love & Mercy' a criminally underrated film about Wilson's early and later life)

Bad breadth concerns rise as S&P 500 set to recover tariff-triggered losses
"It's unprecedented to see this kind of top-heavy earnings growth, but markets reflecting that isn't a sign of the price action being unhealthy" says @peark.es

www.spglobal.com/market-intel...

This album absolutely rocks. That's the only review anyone needs.

Why did a wave of employed US workers leave the domestic labor force in May?
"We've seen a softening of the labor market over the past year, and it seems like young workers are bearing a disproportionate share of the damage," says @prestonmui.bsky.social
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...