@brianscheid.bsky.social
S&P Global Market Intelligence Senior Reporter, Global Markets
Today's Fed Beige Book:
"A few firms noted that artificial intelligence replaced entry-level positions or made existing workers productive enough to curb new hiring."
Beige Book word counts: uncertainty continues to fall as focus on tariffs declines, while labor markets offer a very mixed picture. Hiring was mentioned near the most frequently on record but layoff mentions also accelerating; that latter indicator has worked as a recession indicator historically.
26.11.2025 19:28 — 👍 51 🔁 11 💬 2 📌 3
A K-shaped economy runs into the US holiday spending season:
"Some may choose to use high-cost consumer credit to get through the holiday season. But others may choose to economize and scale down the holiday season spending."
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
Goldman Sachs:
"Only 29% of large-cap equity mutual funds have outperformed their benchmarks YTD, compared to a 37% average since 2007. In an attempt to keep up with benchmarks, equity mutual funds have reduced their cash balances to just 1.2% of assets, a record low."
High unemployment for younger, Black workers may decide Fed's next rate move
"That is likely an indicator of broader labor market weakness down the road, or given the lag, maybe now," says @deanbaker13.bsky.social
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
Factors that Fed officials believe are contributing to the slowdown in US job creation, per minutes of Oct. FOMC meeting:
-Lower immigration
-Lower labor force participation
-Moderate economic growth
-Elevated uncertainty
-AI investments boosting productivity
www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypoli...
"Beyond shaping market sentiment, any outsized post-earnings move in the stock could meaningfully sway the U.S. benchmark: Nvidia is the S&P 500’s largest constituent, and its 7.8% weight in the index is over 4.5 times that of the entire Materials sector."
- Benedek Vörös w/ S&P Dow Jones Indices
“The very thing powering the stock market to records might be gnawing away at Americans’ sense of well being.”
www.wsj.com/tech/ai/the-...
The US government shut down for the longest stretch in American history and the stock market barely noticed
"The bull market isn't over. More new highs are coming, but cracks have developed beneath the surface, and that's a story for 2026."
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
Every month for the last 77 years, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has estimated Americans' unemployment rate
This streak dies tomorrow
Govt staff could not survey Americans about whether they're working or looking for work in Oct, the 1st time in 934 months
This blind spot will remain forever
Stock market's bull run collides with volatility
"Each of those developments in the derivatives space are noteworthy by themselves but not necessarily a reason to panic, however simultaneously combined, they are a more meaningful source of concern"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
New US jobs data?
Goldman Sachs economists see US govt shutdown ending in mid-Nov with BLS releasing the September jobs report within a few days, possibly never releasing the October jobs report and then putting out the November jobs report on time or within a week delay
NatAlliance Securities' Andrew Brenner thinks December's Fed rate cut is still likely, but could be the last until June
03.11.2025 14:00 — 👍 1 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0The way he mixes tempos and beats so seamlessly, layers so many different elements, yet never strays from his distinct fred again style is always amazing
31.10.2025 15:20 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
One of the largest distributors of print books for libraries is shutting down causing major issues for libraries.
🔗 www.404media.co/libraries-sc...
The end of QT
"Normally, risk appetite rejoices when the Fed pulls forward ... but in this case it might be more a sigh of relief that the Fed is taking note of repo strains"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
Rough watch
30.10.2025 03:05 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0Chairman Powell on Fed's next rate move without government jobs, inflation data during shutdown:
"What do you do if you're driving in the fog? You slow down."
Fed set to cut rates again as policy path darkens during shutdown
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
When will tariffs bite?
-Realized tariff rate ~10% (18% forecast)
-Effects weaker, delayed on pricing power, demand concerns
-Cost increases passed slowly
-Most price increases have been one offs
-Little sign of spillage into services
-Effects could hit within 3 mos
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
When’s the last time they issued one of those fines?
25.10.2025 03:10 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
US dollar's historic slide on pause due to lack of government data
"Having less data to price in has been positive for the dollar's recovery"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
Is the US labor market really weakening?
Maybe not, according to some new measures of the market's breakeven rate: www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
JonesTrading's Mike O'Rourke (channeling Rumsfeld) on megacap tech:
"This market is pricing in what it believes to be the known knowns. There is little to no discounting for the known unknowns, and there is absolutely no discounting for unknown unknowns that are only revealed when it is too late."
The US government shutdown has so far been a non event in the Treasury market, but as it drags on fixed income investors could lose sight of the state of inflation and jobs:
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
US construction job openings have sunk to the lowest level in more than eight years as a sudden spike in workers quitting has taken place, both signs the industry is straining under the weight of tariffs, high mortgage rates and an ongoing immigration crackdown
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
US added 60k jobs in Sept, according to new data from Revelio Public Labor Statistics
Ed and health services: +45.6K
Retail: +40.1K
Leisure & hospitality: -34.2K
Govt's Sept. jobs report, to be released tmrw, delayed indefinitely due to shutdown www.reveliolabs.com/public-labor...
After a strong first half of 2025, global share buybacks slowed in the third quarter amid new US tariffs and historically high stock valuations
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"A more stretched consumer"
US consumers continue to spend, but are increasingly digging into savings to cover rising costs, a sign that the persistently robust domestic economy could be on shaky ground as the impacts of tariffs take root
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
This is on the band, though. Phish could play a different venue or even charge far less. Its certainly their right to wring every penny out of their fanbase and that’s what they’ve done for the past decade +
26.09.2025 16:25 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
