MoMoracle

We predict a parliamentary majority for the Liberals of Mark Carney in today's Canadian elections

#CanadaElections2025 #Carney #Poilievre #Canada

Our prediction for #CanadaElections2025

Vote share:
LPC 43.1%, CPC 38.9%, NDP 7.9%, BQ 6%, GPC 1.9%

Seats:
LPC 187, CPC 126, BQ 22, NDP 7, GPC 1

Hamburg's Voice After the Noise The German city state of Hamburg votes just a week after the national election. Our prediction model has the SPD in a comfortable lead

More information is available here:

momoracle.substack.com/p/hamburgs-v...

Our final forecast for the Hamburg state election: SPD 32.3%, CDU 17.5%, Greens 17.2%, Left 11.4%, AfD 9.9%, BSW 2.7%, FDP 2.7%, Volt 2.7% #Buergerschaftswahl2025

Compared to last week: SPD +0.4%, CDU/CSU +0.0%, Greens, -1.4%, Left +2.1%, AfD +0.4%, BSW -0.3%, FDP -0.3%, Volt -0.3%

1/ Our German Election Review The 2025 German Bundestagswahl tested pollster accuracy. YouGov led with a 0.61% error, while our Momoracle model hit 0.91%. How did pollsters fare, and why did social media matter?

A deep dive into the results. 👇

Review of the 2025 German Bundestagswahl: Pollster Performance and Accurate Predictions Which pollster excelled in predicting the German election, and why was a non-traditional online index still useful in a highly accurate polling landscape?

6/ Read the full review of the Bundestagswahl here: momoracle.substack.com/p/review-of-...

5/ Social Media Insight
Our Social Media Strength (SMS) index didn’t tweak our main model - German polls are too good. But it hinted at AfD’s stall and Left’s last-minute surge, adding depth to the data. Social media vibes mattered, even if subtle.

4/ Momoracle’s Probabilistic Wins
Our model nailed all key predictions: CDU/CSU won, AfD took 2nd, Greens <15%, Left >5% + 3 districts, FDP & BSW <5%.

3/ How Good Were German Polls?
Compared to the 2024 US election (avg error 2.94%), German pollsters crushed it in 2025 - errors from 0.61 to 1.61%. Even the "worst" shone by global standards.

2/ YouGov topped the 2025 election polls with a 0.61% error, followed by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen and Ipsos at 0.7%. GMS (1.44%) and Verian (1.61%) lagged. The 2021 champ Allensbach slipped to 1.21%.

1/ Our German Election Review The 2025 German Bundestagswahl tested pollster accuracy. YouGov led with a 0.61% error, while our Momoracle model hit 0.91%. How did pollsters fare, and why did social media matter?

A deep dive into the results. 👇

Our final forecast for the German national election: CDU/CSU 29.9%, AfD 20.5%, SPD 15.3%, Greens 13.1%, Left 7.2%, BSW 4.5%, FDP 4.4%, Others 5.7%

#Bundestagswahl2025 #Bundestagswahl #BTW2025 #CDUCSU #AfD #SPD #Gruenen #Linke #BSW #FDP #Merz #Weidel #Scholz #Habeck

bsky.app/profile/momo...

The correlation between online strength and polling is weak at best for the parties – with the exception of the Linke:

1. The AfD is in a strong first place, but it strength has declined substantially since the Musk-Weidel talk.

In the last Romanian election, our Social Media Strength (SMS) index improved traditional polls. How does it look like in Germany now?

SMS, 21-23 February 2025:
AfD 36.9%, Left 16.3%, CDU/CSU 15.8%, SPD 10.0%, Greens 7.7%, FDP 6.9%, BSW 6.4%

2 things stand out:
#BTW2025 #Bundestagswahl

Will the CDU/CDU win the German election?

Predicted Probability: 99.79%

#Bundestagswahl2025 #BTW2025 #CDUCSU #Merz #CDU #CSU

Will the AfD win the 2nd most seats in the German election?

Predicted Probability: 99.08%

#Bundestagswahl2025 #BTW2025 #AfD #Weidel

Will The Left make it into the Bundestag as a Fraktion (pass 5% threshold or win at least 3 districts) // Kommt die Linke in Fraktionsstärke in den Bundestag (5% Hürde oder mind. 3 Direktmandate)?

Predicted Probability: 98.84%

#DieLinke #Linke #BTW2025 #Bundestagswahl2025

Will the Left win 3 or more districts / Gewinnt Die Linke 3 oder mehr Wahlkreise?

Predicted probability: 90.28%

#DieLinke #Linke #Gysi #Ramelow #Bartsch #Reichinnek #BTW2025 #Bundestagswahl2025

Will the Left win 5% or more of the vote in the German election?

Predicted Probability: 88.09%

#Bundestagswahl2025 #BTW2025 #Linke #DieLinke #Linken #Reichinnek

Will the BSW win 5% or more of the vote in the German election?

Predicted Probability: 34%

#Bundestagswahl2025 #BTW2025 #BSW #Wagenknecht

Will the FDP win 5% or more of the vote in the German election?

Predicted Probability: 24.93%

#Bundestagswahl2025 #BTW2025 #FDP #Lindner

Will the Greens win 15% or more of the vote in the German election?

Predicted Probability: 8.5%

#Bundestagswahl2025 #BTW2025 #Gruene #Gruenen #Habeck #Baerbock

bsky.app/profile/momo...

Can the AfD Still Win the German Election? A Look at Historical Polling Errors The answer is yes and we only need to go back to the latest state election

6/ The full article is available here: momoracle.substack.com/p/can-the-af...

Future fix: Modular modeling + online sentiment could catch rapid shifts, reducing errors vs. traditional polls.

For now, AfD victory’s a long shot—but not zero. /5

Caveat: State ≠ national elections. Past Bundestagswahlen errors were smaller and there were no consistent bias across pollsters. An AfD win would be a historic national polling fluke.

Nonetheless, the AfD gained up to 6.7% vis-à-vis the CDU/CSU from polls to results in the 2017 Bundestagswahl. /4

More state election errors bolster the case. Schleswig-Holstein 2022, and especially Saxony-Anhalt 2021: CDU polled 27%, won 37.1%; AfD polled 26%, got 20.8%. /3

Brandenburg 2024: INSA poll had SPD at 25%, CDU at 16% (9-pt gap). Results? SPD 30.9%, CDU 12.1% (18.8-pt gap).

A similar swing for the AfD today could mean: AfD 26.4% vs. CDU’s 26.0% /2