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Daniel Serwer

@peacefare.bsky.social

Prof Johns Hopkins SAIS, former VP @USIP and MinCounselor @StateDepartment. Blogging multiple international conflicts @ www.peacefare.net

197 Followers  |  124 Following  |  354 Posts  |  Joined: 15.11.2024
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Posts by Daniel Serwer (@peacefare.bsky.social)

Trump wants to pull the plug A year from now, we are likely to be remembering a highly effective military operation that did not achieve its strategic objectives. Or we'll still be at war.

Trump wants to pull the plug

A year from now, we are likely to be remembering a highly effective military operation that did not achieve its strategic objectives. Or we'll still be at war.

10.03.2026 13:03 — 👍 1    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
Ending the Iran war well won’t be easy The devil is not only in the details, but in a highly uncertain future. This war was a giant wager. There is a lot to lose on both sides.

Ending the Iran war well won’t be easy

The devil is not only in the details, but in a highly uncertain future. This war was a giant wager. There is a lot to lose on both sides.

08.03.2026 16:56 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
Do the Balkans really want EU membership? When the political window opens for Iceland or Ukraine, I hope the Balkan candidates will be ready and willing.

Do the Balkans really want EU membership?

When the political window opens for Iceland or Ukraine, I hope the Balkan candidates will be ready and willing.

06.03.2026 13:58 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
Lots of things can still go wrong Even if the war were to end tomorrow, the impact would continue to ripple into the future. There are lots of known unknowns and unknown unknowns.

Lots of things can still go wrong

Even if the war were to end tomorrow, the impact would continue to ripple into the future. There are lots of known unknowns and unknown unknowns.

05.03.2026 15:05 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
It’s about regime change, no doubt The greater powers often excepted themselves from the rules-based order. Now it is in tatters. We are going to miss it when it is gone.

It’s about regime change, no doubt

The greater powers often excepted themselves from the rules-based order. Now it is in tatters. We are going to miss it when it is gone.

04.03.2026 15:06 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
A pattern of quiet ethnic cleansing Recognizing and addressing discrimination against Albanians in Serbia is essential not only for Albanians, but for democratic principles across the region.

A pattern of quiet ethnic cleansing

Recognizing and addressing discrimination against Albanians in Serbia is essential not only for Albanians, but for democratic principles across the region.

02.03.2026 14:27 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
Trump chooses regime change by aggression Regime change in Iran is a giant gamble. There is no guarantee that more reasonable people will be able to take power as a result of this war of choice.

Trump chooses regime change by aggression

Regime change in Iran is a giant gamble. There is no guarantee that more reasonable people will be able to take power as a result of this war of choice.

28.02.2026 14:47 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
Failure is no only an option Trump's peacemaking week is looking like a bust. The Ukraine war isn't ending, Gaza isn't getting reconstructed, and so far there is no deal with Iran.

Failure is no only an option

Trump's peacemaking week is looking like a bust. The Ukraine war isn't ending, Gaza isn't getting reconstructed, and so far there is no deal with Iran.

18.02.2026 19:03 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
When will the war in Ukraine end? SAIS scholars will try to answer:

When will the war in Ukraine end?

SAIS scholars will try to answer:

09.02.2026 23:48 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
America’s Iran options aren’t great Unless Iran agrees to unprecedented constraints, or Washington drops its broad portfolio of demands, we are in for a long standoff.

America’s Iran options aren’t great

Unless Iran agrees to unprecedented constraints, or Washington drops its broad portfolio of demands, we are in for a long standoff.

01.02.2026 15:01 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 1
The Board of Peace is another Trump scam The Board of Peace is another Donald Trump scam intended to empower himself. The sooner it implodes, the better.

The Board of Peace is another Trump scam

The Board of Peace is another Donald Trump scam intended to empower himself. The sooner it implodes, the better.

29.01.2026 16:41 — 👍 3    🔁 2    💬 0    📌 0
The Trump through line is unrestrained power Trump should understand that the quickest way to end the Ukraine war is to tighten the sanctions. And give Ukraine everything it needs to win.

The Trump through line is unrestrained power

Trump should understand that the quickest way to end the Ukraine war is to tighten the sanctions. And give Ukraine everything it needs to win.

28.01.2026 19:35 — 👍 2    🔁 2    💬 0    📌 0
The domestic cures for Trumpmania This move wouldn't necessarily save Greenland, Venezuela, or Iran, but it would slow Trump's perfidies and force him to move towards the center.

The domestic cures for Trumpmania

This move wouldn't necessarily save Greenland, Venezuela, or Iran, but it would slow Trump's perfidies and force him to move towards the center.

21.01.2026 21:10 — 👍 1    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
Stop him before it is too late Trump is hurting American security in the Arctic. He wouldn't know a threat to national security if it fell on the White House.

Stop him before it is too late

Trump is hurting American security in the Arctic. He wouldn't know a threat to national security if it fell on the White House.

21.01.2026 01:20 — 👍 1    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
Color me skeptical but surprise me, please A one-state outcome with unequal rights will prevail. Frustration will increase and boil over, tragically for both Israelis and Palestinians.

Color me skeptical but surprise me, please

A one-state outcome with unequal rights will prevail. Frustration will increase and boil over, tragically for both Israelis and Palestinians.

16.01.2026 00:53 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
Negotiations with Iran >>>>> bombing The US and Iran do not have immutable reasons for mutual hostility. A modus vivendi with Israel could yield enormous benefits for Iranians.

Negotiations with Iran >>>>> bombing

The US and Iran do not have immutable reasons for mutual hostility. A modus vivendi with Israel could yield enormous benefits for Iranians.

13.01.2026 17:21 — 👍 1    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0
Trump is hurting US security in the Arctic EU members and other democratic states should get their act together to pre-empt Trump's next moves in Greenland. He is their adversary, not their friend.

Trump is hurting US security in the Arctic

EU members and other democratic states should get their act together to pre-empt Trump's next moves in Greenland. He is their adversary, not their friend.

12.01.2026 16:46 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
Greenland’s defense should not be American Europe Plus needs a policy of resolve. A first demonstration of such a policy would be a preventive deployment of European and allied forces to Greenland.

Greenland’s defense should not be American

Europe Plus needs a policy of resolve. A first demonstration of such a policy would be a preventive deployment of European and allied forces to Greenland.

12.01.2026 16:34 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

They know it was murder and are trying to ensure he is not prosecuted, so more ICE murderers can act with impunity.

11.01.2026 19:49 — 👍 1    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
Preview
Victor Asal on X: "Smithsonian Removes Label Noting Trump Impeachments https://t.co/jq6WdBZ0zu" / X Smithsonian Removes Label Noting Trump Impeachments https://t.co/jq6WdBZ0zu

The Smithsonian is in grave peril and there isn’t much that can be done about it. Or is there? x.com/victor_asal/...

11.01.2026 19:46 — 👍 1    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
Trump’s imperial ambitions won’t end well Headlines do not solve problems. But they are all Trump really known how to make. Solutions are not his thing. He prefers attention, no matter the cost.

Trump’s imperial ambitions won’t end well

Headlines do not solve problems. But they are all Trump really known how to make. Solutions are not his thing. He prefers attention, no matter the cost.

08.01.2026 20:09 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
What decent people hope for in 2026 Global peace and security are in free fall, while decent people worldwide hope for a change in course during the new year 2026.

What decent people hope for in 2026

Global peace and security are in free fall, while decent people worldwide hope for a change in course during the new year 2026.

07.01.2026 17:56 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
Serbia is not on the fast track to Europe Jelena Diković confirmed to me yesterday the Daily DANAS has published this interview: 1. How do you see the student protests over the past year? Can they lead to a change of government in Serbia? A: Sure they can, but I don't know that they will. President Vučić is a master at manipulating popular protest: firing a minister here or there, scheduling new elections, stuffing ballot boxes or voters into swing districts, without however putting his own hold on power at serious risk.

Serbia is not on the fast track to Europe

Jelena Diković confirmed to me yesterday the Daily DANAS has published this interview: 1. How do you see the student protests over the past year? Can they lead to a change of government in Serbia? A: Sure they can, but I don't know that they will.…

03.01.2026 17:30 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
Post image

Just when I thought I couldn't admire the man more...

🎯 🎯 🎯 💯 💯 💯 👍 👍 👍

13.12.2025 18:58 — 👍 41962    🔁 9705    💬 934    📌 342

Happy Hanukkah, the holiday where we celebrate the defeat of a large cosmpolitan empire by a small determined group of militant religious fanatics

14.12.2025 23:18 — 👍 1883    🔁 187    💬 50    📌 24
Sanity and decency won’t suffice In the meanwhile, I hope some people are thinking hard not just about sanity and decency, but also about accountability and justice.

Sanity and decency won’t suffice

In the meanwhile, I hope some people are thinking hard not just about sanity and decency, but also about accountability and justice.

09.12.2025 23:01 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
Trump’s fake peace in pieces The racism, misogyny, economic illiteracy, and disdain for decency will catch up with him sooner or later. At least I hope so.

Trump’s fake peace in pieces

The racism, misogyny, economic illiteracy, and disdain for decency will catch up with him sooner or later. At least I hope so.

05.12.2025 01:06 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
Stability is the problem in the Balkans Once Bosnians, Kosovans, and Serbians take responsibility, progress toward EU and NATO membership will be easy, not hard.

Stability is the problem in the Balkans

Once Bosnians, Kosovans, and Serbians take responsibility, progress toward EU and NATO membership will be easy, not hard.

03.12.2025 14:42 — 👍 1    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
The Trump balloons are deflating America First is becoming America diminished. Another three years of this will leave us easy prey for more serious competitors.

The Trump balloons are deflating

America First is becoming America diminished. Another three years of this will leave us easy prey for more serious competitors.

01.12.2025 23:20 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
Saying “no” to Trump is vital Zelensky needs to do everything he can with Ukraine's other friends in Europe and Asia. Saying "no" to Trump is vital to Ukraine's survival.

Saying “no” to Trump is vital

Zelensky needs to do everything he can with Ukraine's other friends in Europe and Asia. Saying "no" to Trump is vital to Ukraine's survival.

23.11.2025 16:57 — 👍 1    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0