Last week the head of a private banking asked me if it would worth to re entry into em debt (because they missed the last 20% returns) through a 100% Africa hard currency fund….

barack obama is sitting in a chair making a funny face and asking why tho ? ALT: barack obama is sitting in a chair making a funny face and asking why tho ?

When I’m seeing PM taking profit on their xover after 1bp widening

Global EM: Raised cash to ~30–35%. Shifted Main cds exposure into Xover. I hedge ~80% of the book with CDS. Significantly lower beta. Market complacency looks stretched here.

What -2% already! Time to buy the dip

🇻🇪 Venezuela: +388% return since my entry point. Trimmed 25% today. Great performance so far, still upside, but a lot of good news is now in the price, felt right to take some profit.

🇺🇦 Ukraine: Sold ~15–20% of my exposure today. Nice move so far and still upside ahead, but a lot of optimism is now in the price, a good moment to start taking some profits.

A bit of calm in this period of uncertainty.
Lake Geneva, this weekend.

Global EM
Since this post 4 months ago, ~75% of EMBIGD returns came from ~10% of the universe
With 80%+ hedged via CDS and 20–25% in cash & equivalents, the strategy delivered ~171% of market returns with similar volatility
Sometimes beta matters. Sometimes credit selection does

🇸🇳 Senegal :
Exposure closed.
Low-conviction trade; waited for the right window to exit flat on PnL (even positive with carry haha)
No drama. Sometimes risk management is the trade.

Global EM:

Geopolitical risk at multi-year highs, Japan rates under stress, political interference in Fed policy…
Tail-risk probability has rarely been this elevated.
I’m still very surprised by current valuations on equity or credit spreads.

🇻🇪 Venezuela : should be a good news for my biggest conviction.

What worries me is market complacency. I’m not claiming to be right holding significant cheap CDS, but discussions with DM/EM RMs suggest limited appetite for hedging due to the ~50bp annual cost. I still believe markets, especially DM, are more exposed than currently priced.

a dog is laying on top of an office chair with the words `` so bored '' written below it . ALT: a dog is laying on top of an office chair with the words `` so bored '' written below it .

Global EM: Markets remain range-bound. Focus on carry (local/HY) within a barbell framework, with meaningful CDS protection (happy to pay). Core convictions unchanged: Ukraine, Venezuela, Angola (loan). Senegal currently ~20% loaded, waiting for better entry levels to add.

Yes fully agree.
Here I’m just building a position (so far tiny).

🇸🇳 Senegal : *IMF, WORLD BANK WORKING ON FINALIZING SENEGAL'S DEBT ANALYSIS

I reload a bit on Wednesday tbh. Still have decent room to add.

Global EM :
Two proprietary EM indicators (>>0 track):
• 1st = global macro risk support
• 2nd = EM-specific risk sentiment
Interesting divergence: EM risk appetite still well above danger zone, while global macro support for EM just dropped sharply.

Python if people asked

🇸🇳 Sénégal : after being out of the name for long time. Just started to build a position this morning benefiting from volatility. Not a high conviction trade but some good willingness supporting by an IMF open minded. Sizing matters.

It’s depend which kind of EM segment you are looking at. Mainstream I would say classical ones (jpm, ms,…). Frontier markets : Tellmier, Banctrust,…

🇦🇷 Argentina : Here we go. Should be a great day for Argentina holder 😀

IMF takeaways : cautious but a mood of hope with no euphoria. Everyone know about poor valuation but need to sell asset class to survive.
Still don’t like Senegal, though an SLA looks possible. Venezuela still comfortable with.

IMF meetings start today. Let’s see if anything truly insightful comes out of them.

Just reload at 50.75 for color. We are quasi back to the low and in the meantime we have had the US support.

To be transparent I closed the majority of my exposure at 58.625 (62 and 55.25).
Volatility should remain and should offer interesting opportunities imho.

Tbh, corporate investors crack me up:
• “Corps are more resilient” → nah, just illiquid
• “They lag because of the sovereign cap”
• “They blow up because gov interference”
Sounds like my 6-year-old searching for excuses 😂

Close to have Brady bonds

a man in a suit and tie is asking " what 's going on here " ALT: a man in a suit and tie is asking " what 's going on here "

🇦🇷 Argentina : Buenos holders looking Argentina bonds

🇦🇷 Argentina : Some good news coming from US. Bonds are up 7pts.

🇦🇷 Argentina: Added a second tranche at 48.4 on this latest leg lower, still capacity to increase.
Interesting how the market eagerly chased every 0.5pt dip around 70, yet is now just as eager to unload at any price.

The best contrarian quant model in EM. Short IMF mood

a man in a suit and tie is sitting in a chair with his hands in the air ALT: a man in a suit and tie is sitting in a chair with his hands in the air

All my PM colleagues (€IG as €HY) panic over France slipping from AA- to A+, while I’m chilling on a comfy B- cushion. Different leagues of stress.