Elisabeth Braw

Phenomenal work by these German journalism students.

Including the figures they've obtained:

'1,072 incidents involving 1,955 drones in 2025 alone (as of November 19). Forty-five percent occurred in evening hours. Drone swarms flew “almost exclusively over or near military installations".'

Now Ukraine has struck another Russian shadow vessel.

It's demonstrating it can slash Russia's main source of revenue - and is willing to do so.

Now one of the Russian shadow vessels struck by Ukraine a few days ago has run aground.

Shadow vessel owners may start thinking twice about transporting Russian oil.

Norway has a wonderful new(-ish) initiative: preparedness friends.

Preparedness is not about going prepper. It's about being prepared for realistic crises - and helping one another.

Doing so alleviates loneliness too. A win-win

foreignpolicy.com/2025/12/04/n... (Me @foreignpolicy.com. Gift link.)

Ukrainian negotiators are meeting with Steve Witkoff in Florida today.

And they've arrived with proof that they can slash Russia's oil revenues.

Ukraine's recent attacks on Russia's shadow fleet are already having an effect.

www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/world/europe...

(Me @prospectmagazine.co.uk)

A sensible step if we are to protect our supply chains against disruption.

As the Ukraine peace negotiations continue, the reality for the shadow fleet has changed dramatically.

Three vessels crippled, one crucial port struck.

Shadow-vessel owners will be getting cold feet.

We can't know why the mysterious cable incidents have stopped - or indeed whether they will resume.

But whatever the cause for the pause, the Baltic Sea nations' efforts to patrol, surveil, cooperate and communicate are impressive.

Two Russian shadow vessels (and today reportedly another one) struck by Ukraine:

A dramatic turn in the battle against the shadow fleet (and the revenues it brings Russia).

www.reuters.com/business/ene...

France brings back limited military service with 3,000 volunteers next year "The only way to avoid danger is to prepare for it," says President Emmanuel Macron.

Regarding France's new conscription (www.bbc.com/news/article...):

I have views, explained here and elsewhere: www.rusi.org/explore-our-...

The bottom line is that today's security environment is an opportunity to innovate. I remain a fan of the Norwegian model (which can be further enhanced).

How the Baltic Sea nations have tackled suspicious cable cuts Two places in the world's oceans see a lot of suspicious maritime behavior: the Baltic Sea, and the waters around Taiwan. Elisabeth Braw reports from the NATO task force charged with protecting the un...

First there was a sudden string of mysterious cable & pipeline incidents in the Baltic Sea.

Then the Baltic Sea nations collectively took action.

The incidents have stopped (for now).

www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-res...

An @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social Maritime Threats initiative report.

Knock on wood - but the Baltic Sea hasn't had any cable/pipeline incidents lately.

More about it: www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-res...

(This is the latest report from the @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social Maritime Threats initiative. No paywall.)

The emergence of the shadow shipbreaking market The shadow fleet now has its own system for scrapping ships, and it’s even riskier than the official one.

Where shadow vessels go to die.

www.politico.eu/article/emer...

The emergence of the shadow shipbreaking market The shadow fleet now has its own system for scrapping ships, and it’s even riskier than the official one.

Most shadow vessels are very old, which makes death (ie scrapping) imminent.

In fact, shadow vessels are creating a whole new shadow shipbreaking sector - and huge dangers for the workers and the environment.

www.politico.eu/article/emer... (Me @politico.eu. No paywall.)

Russian spy ship aims lasers at RAF pilots tracking it near UK waters We see you, John Healey tells Putin, as he calls for a new era of ‘hard power’ after surveillance vessel is spotted loitering off Scotland

The Yantar directing lasers at UK pilots:

It's certainly like a deliberate provocation in waters that have numerous undersea installations.

The point of the provocation: well, there are several possibilities.

www.thetimes.com/uk/defence/a...

She's back (very) near UK waters, the research vessel Yantar.

And not just that, Defence Secretary John Healey says she has 'directed lasers at our pilots'.

Research, provocation or both?

news.sky.com/story/russia...

Thank you

Russia's fast-growing greyzone aggression has many guises.

One factor unites them: they're costing the companies/organisations/cities/agencies attacked a lot of money.

Russia is trying to bleed us dry. Building resilience is vital.

www.politico.eu/article/russ...

Me @politico.eu. No paywall.

Your friendly reminder that this week is Norway's Self Preparedness Week.

A week-long reminder (with instructions) of how everyone can contribute to national resilience.

This is how to do it.

Italian court approves extradition in Nord Stream case – DW – 10/27/2025 A court in Italy has given the go-ahead to extradite a Ukrainian suspect to Germany over the 2022 Nord Stream pipeline sabotage. The gas delivery route was long seen as a symbol of Germany's overrelia...

The Nord Stream saga's dramatic turns continue.

Now an Italian court has approved Serhii K's extradition to Germany.

A lot hinges on what he tells the German court (whenever that happens).

www.dw.com/en/italian-c...

Who Is Messing With Airplane GPS Worldwide? A wave of global interference threatens air safety.

GPS interference in the Baltic Sea region (and elsewhere) is reaching extraordinary levels.

That has implications for air travel everywhere.

A truly sinister form of aggression. The world's law-abiding nations should call out the perpetrators.

foreignpolicy.com/2025/10/27/a...

Sweden established a new global trend with In Case of Crisis or War.

Now it's about to publish a corresponding leaflet directed at businesses.

What a great idea - especially since greyzone aggression directly targets the private sector.

www.politico.eu/article/swed...

(Me @politico.eu)

What great news: Ukraine will buy 150 (!) Gripen E fighter jets.

It's a fantastic aircraft, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said after his historic meeting with Ulf Kristersson today.

Sweden has steadfastly supported Ukraine ever since Russia's full-scale invasion.

Allies at work.

The pioneering greenhouse-gas reduction treaty for shipping has failed.

Here's more about it in a report from earlier this year www.atlanticcouncil.org/wp-content/u...

(Part of @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social's Maritime Threats initiative.)

Anchors Away Finland’s failure to convict Russian crew clears the way for more cable-cutting attacks.

Columnist @elisabethbraw.bsky.social explains the verdict of a pivotal trial involving three officers in charge of a shadow tanker that sabotaged undersea cables in the Gulf of Finland last year.

Thank you @stathiosb.bsky.social

Anchors Away Finland’s failure to convict Russian crew clears the way for more cable-cutting attacks.

The Finnish prosecutors in the Eagle S showed gutsiness and innovative thinking in two crucial aspects:

- The matter of jurisdiction

- The matter of the crew's intent to damage the cables

We'll see more of this.

foreignpolicy.com/2025/10/10/f...

Me @foreignpolicy.com

Anchors Away Finland’s failure to convict Russian crew clears the way for more cable-cutting attacks.

The Finnish prosecutors in the Eagle S showed gutsiness and innovative thinking in two crucial aspects:

- The matter of jurisdiction

- The matter of the crew's intent to damage the cables

We'll see more of this.

foreignpolicy.com/2025/10/10/f...

Me @foreignpolicy.com

Ask what your gym can do for your country.

Gen Z-ers are fit - and in a Bowling Alone era, many also join gyms to make friends.

Imagine if we had national resilience organisations they could join. It would be a win-win.

on.ft.com/4hdCLyQ (Me @financialtimes.com. No paywall.)

Russia’s Shadow Fleet Is Doing More Than Sanctions-Busting In the Baltic, Russian-linked vessels are suspected of spying and sabotage.

Russia's shadow fleet is dual-use: many vessels don't just transport sanctioned oil but have other uses too (think surveillance, threatening cables).

One group knows a lot about them: Danish pilots. We should listen to them.

foreignpolicy.com/2025/10/02/r... (Me @foreignpolicy.com)