Dan Fried

Good that JD Vance shows exasperation w/Kremlin stonewalling on Ukraine. Better still if the US acts to increase pressure on Russia and support for Ukraine, which it can.

x.com/wartranslate...

Always read @ambdanfried.bsky.social for nuanced, sober, historically-informed, pragmatic analysis that doesn't skimp on values or justice either.

Here's his latest on how the #Russia-Ukraine war could end and, crucially, what security for #Urkaine really means in practice:

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Trump, Zelenskyy, European Leaders in White House Meeting: Progress Toward a Deal? Getting to any deal between Ukraine & Russia will require the United States & Europe to stand by Ukrainians & stare down Russia's demands.

3/3 Link to @ambdanfried.bsky.social's essay at @justsecurity.org

Trump, Zelenskyy, European Leaders in White House Meeting: Progress Toward a Deal?

1/3 A revealing twist in the Ukraine diplomacy.

On the left:

On Tuesday, @ambdanfried.bsky.social anticipated that Witkoff may have missed a deceptive offering by Putin on security guarantees.

On the right:

On Wednesday, @antongerashchenko.bsky.social identifies the Russian move.

Trump, Zelenskyy, European Leaders in White House Meeting: Progress Toward a Deal? Getting to any deal between Ukraine & Russia will require the United States & Europe to stand by Ukrainians & stare down Russia's demands.

US policy is a roller coaster. But after yesterday’s WH meetings, there is a path to greater security for Ukraine, the most critical part of ending Russia’s war of aggression.

www.justsecurity.org/119273/trump...

Trump’s Meeting With Putin: Beware of Traps, Play the Right Card President Trump must avoid Putin’s traps, ramp up the pressure on Russia, and make clear that the United States will back Ukraine’s security.

www.justsecurity.org/118937/trump...

Kissinger, Brzezinski, and the Promise of Realism A cynical realism resonates today, but there is a model for fusing power and values.

A new version of realism is establishing itself in Washington. But two models from the past can reveal a better way forward, writes Daniel Fried.

Trump’s Shift on Ukraine and Russia Viola Gienger is joined by Ambassador Daniel Fried and Dara Massicot to discuss Trump’s policy shift on Ukraine and its impact.

Trump’s Shift on #Ukraine and #Russia: @ambdanfried.bsky.social and @massdara.bsky.social explain what it means and what to look for, in conversation with Just Security’s @violagienger.bsky.social
#RussiaUkraineWar #sanctions

www.justsecurity.org/117252/podca...

JD Vance’s Dangerous View of American Nationhood The power of the American ideal comes not from Americans being a “particular people” with a common heritage—an ethnically-rooted nation like others—but from its being different.

nationalinterest.org/feature/jd-v...

NATO’s Hague Summit Declaration reaffirms Article 5, notes the threat from Russia, commits Allies to 3.5% 1.5% defense spending by 2035, and reaffirms commitment to contribute to Ukraine’s defense. Not glorious but good enough. Sometimes that’s what you need.

www.nato.int/cps/en/natoh...

Trump's Sidelining of Human Rights in Foreign Policy Weakening the U.S. commitment to human rights and the tools to advance them undoubtedly will prove costly.

The Trump administration often dismisses #HumanRights as a serious factor in #ForeignPolicy.

@ambdanfried.bsky.social on history’s lessons about the risks such thinking poses to solidarity and strategic interests:

www.justsecurity.org/115191/trump...

Can Trump Seize a Win in Ukraine? It’s in Trump’s hands to deliver the logic of force: to rally the West, to back Ukraine, squeeze Russia, and set the stage for victory.

Amid pride over recent successful strikes against Russian targets, Ukrainians are realistic about what it will take to end the war – from them, Putin, and President Trump.

@ambdanfried.bsky.social reports from his latest trip to Ukraine:

www.justsecurity.org/114139/trump...

#RussiaUkraineWar

What’s Next for U.S. Diplomacy and Foreign Assistance? - Reiss Center on Law and Security Register here   The State Department has released a reorganization plan that would usher in significant changes to the way the United States conducts its diplomacy and foreign assistance, at a time of...

WEDNESDAY 12-1pm ET @ambdanfried.bsky.social, Dafna Rand, Michael Schiffer, & @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org discuss the #DOS reorganization, #USAID, and more.

Unpack what’s happening, what’s at stake, and what lies ahead with @rcls-nyu.bsky.social

Zoom RSVP:
www.lawandsecurity.org/calendar/wha...

Is the U.S. Abandoning the Fight Against Foreign Information Operations? The Trump administration's policy shift paves the way for foreign propaganda to flourish, leaving Europe to step into the breach.

The US & Europe were just getting a handle on how to reduce the influence of malign foreign information operations.

With the Trump administration’s retreat, can Europe step up more?

From @ambdanfried.bsky.social:

www.justsecurity.org/113163/is-us...

What’s Next for U.S. Diplomacy and Foreign Assistance? - Reiss Center on Law and Security Register here   The State Department has released a reorganization plan that would usher in significant changes to the way the United States conducts its diplomacy and foreign assistance, at a time of...

What’s Next for U.S. Diplomacy and Foreign Assistance?

An important discussion with leading experts

@ambdanfried.bsky.social
Dafna Rand
Michael Schiffer
@mwhanna.crisisgroup.org

Co-hosted with @rcls-nyu.bsky.social

Weds May 14 | 12-1pm ET | Zoom

#USAID #DOS #diplomacy

What’s Next for U.S. Diplomacy and Foreign Assistance? - Reiss Center on Law and Security Register here   The State Department has released a reorganization plan that would usher in significant changes to the way the United States conducts its diplomacy and foreign assistance, at a time of...

Join us Wed. at noon! 🕛 Hear from @ambdanfried.bsky.social, Dafna Rand, Michael Schiffer & @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org as they unpack the impact of the proposed State Dept. restructuring.

5/14 | 12-1pm | Zoom
Hosts: @rcls-nyu.bsky.social @justsecurity.org

www.lawandsecurity.org/calendar/wha...

European Leaders Visit Kyiv and Press Russia for a 30-Day Cease-Fire

Key Europeans, the US, & Ukraine converge around a push for a 30-day ceasefire between Ukraine & Russia. Will Putin blow it off again? If he does (or fakes & spins), will the West (incl. US) turn up the heat on Russia & send more arms to Ukraine?

www.nytimes.com/2025/05/10/w...

Who Will Speak for America? NED, NDI, IRI, VOA, RFE/RL, Radio Marti, Radio Free Asia, and more were the instruments through which America advanced its interests by putting its back behind its values.

There’s no good reason to trash the tools through which the US advances its interests by advancing its values. My take.

nationalinterest.org/feature/who-...

A slow and immense shift: the US in the 1980s could not convince Europe to avoid dependence on Russian oil & gas. But Putin - in his aggression - has managed to do so.

How to Land the Emerging Deal on Peace for Ukraine A ceasefire along existing lines, with de facto but not formal recognition of Russian occupation, plus security for Ukraine, could work.

@ambdanfried.bsky.social lays out an option for the intense talks on ending Russia’s war on Ukraine:

A ceasefire roughly along existing front lines, with de facto recognition of Russian occupation, and Western forces providing security for Ukraine.

www.justsecurity.org/112463/ukrai...

How to Land the Emerging Deal on Peace for Ukraine A ceasefire along existing lines, with de facto but not formal recognition of Russian occupation, plus security for Ukraine, could work.

How Trump can land the deal on Ukraine. A good-enough deal is emerging. Now it’s time to push Russia to get serious.

www.justsecurity.org/112463/ukrai...

The worst US proposal for Ukraine is to recognize Russia’s annexation of Crimea. No NATO for Ukraine also bad. The first is not certain (yet) and there can be workarounds to the second. And there are some solid parts of the deal. Nothing set but things are in motion.

Opinion | Has Trump found a path to peace in Ukraine? Security guarantees and other hard details remain, but there are signs of movement.

Talks to end the Russo-Ukraine War are in an intense phase. David Ignatius sums up the emerging potential deal. Am told it’s accurate.

www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

Why the unilateral concessions to Russia?

www.kyivpost.com/post/51216

E.U. Prepares Major Penalties Against Elon Musk’s X European regulators are considering fining X and making demands for product changes, after weighing the risks of further antagonizing Mr. Musk and President Trump.

The EU appears poised to take on X & other social media platforms for problems with integrity & transparency. Censorship or content control is bad. This action is different but apt to trigger a big reaction nevertheless. @apolyakova.bsky.social

www.nytimes.com/2025/04/03/t...

First-rate and (depressingly) well-timed cautionary piece by David Kramer & Albert Torres. The Germans learned the hard way that “change through trade” with Putin’s Russia is a sucker’s game. We should go back there.

The US Government’s Self-Harm in Killing RFE/RL RFE/RL's decades-long record of success demands something other than summary termination based on unsupported accusations.

Killing @rferl.org.web.brid.gy makes no sense. Here’s why:

www.justsecurity.org/109219/us-go...

Note to Trump: McKinley’s legacy is about more than tariffs and territory President William McKinley’s foreign policy was more complex than his reputation for high tariffs and imperial acquisitions would suggest.

Is Donald Trump right about William McKinley as a high-tariff and imperialist president?

President McKinley’s foreign policy was more complex than his reputation for high tariffs and imperial acquisitions would suggest, writes @ambdanfried.bsky.social.

Steve Hadley, Frank Kramer, & I try to look ahead to what a sustainable peace for Ukraine would take.

A Plan for Peace Through Strength in Ukraine Europe must step up, but America still has a role to play in ending the war.

To resolve the war in Ukraine, Europe should lead the way in strengthening security guarantees for Kyiv—and the United States should provide limited but important support, argue Stephen Hadley, Daniel Fried, and Franklin Kramer.