Dan Fried

Ukraine’s Long War and History’s Lessons for the West Similarly to World War I, how the U.S. and Europe handle Russia’s long war in Ukraine will shape Europe’s future order and security.

“Some wars change the world, and history illuminates how the Russia-Ukraine War might do so.”

From Amb. Daniel Fried on the impending 4th anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine:

www.justsecurity.org/131874/russi...

Trump’s New Year Foreign Policy: A Mix of Bold, Bad, Constructive Trump’s foreign policy remains an inconsistent array of initiatives and adventures including in Latin America, Greenland, and Ukraine.

The bold (Venezuela), the bad (Greenland) and the constructive (Ukraine) in Trump’s foreign policy moves this first week of 2026. I try to unpack:

www.justsecurity.org/128167/trump...

Trump’s New Year Foreign Policy: A Mix of Bold, Bad, Constructive Trump’s foreign policy remains an inconsistent array of initiatives and adventures including in Latin America, Greenland, and Ukraine.

Pres. Trump’s foreign policy, on full display over multiple fronts in the year’s first week, remains an inconsistent array of initiatives and adventures, writes @ambdanfried.bsky.social.

Assessing the bold, the bad, and the constructive actions to date:

#Venezuela #Greenland #RussiaUkraineWar

The Emancipation Proclamation came into effect on this day, 1863. Lincoln transformed the Civil War from a war of restoration into a war of liberation. The Stars & Stripes became “the flag that makes you free.” Lest we forget.

To end the Russo-Ukraine, the US & Europe will have to push Russia more. The tools - economic and otherwise - are available.

Opinion | Trump looks surprisingly close to securing a good Ukraine deal When Putin balks, Russia should pay the price.

The 20-point plan the US & Ukraine are working could work. That’s why the Kremlin is trying to spike it with accusations that Ukraine is attacking one of Putin’s palaces.

www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

Experts react: What Trump’s National Security Strategy means for US foreign policy Atlantic Council experts delve into the newly released document outlining the Trump administration’s principles and priorities for US foreign policy.

What’s in the new US National Security Strategy. My @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social colleagues & I go through the good (there’s a bit), the bad, and the ugly.

www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...

I suspect (& hope) that the Belgian PM is pushing for the best deal he can get.

Why the U.S.-Russia Ukraine Talks Failed President Trump is right to push for peace. But his administration are bad at negotiating with Vladimir Putin, writes Daniel Fried.

Putin stiffed the US peace plan. Here’s how the US should respond: stop negotiating with ourselves and increase the pressure on the Kremlin.

time.com/7338224/trum...

When you want it bad, you get it bad: Steve Witkoff and the US push to end the war "When you want it bad, you get it bad." That’s how one of my colleagues on the Clinton National Security Council staff described the problem when a U.S. administration chases after an objective so har...

Pushing hard for a sustainable deal to end the Russo-Ukraine war is good. Racing to close any deal risks being played. As we see with Steve Witkoff.

kyivindependent.com/when-you-wan...

Secretary Rubio is in Geneva to work through the weak plan with key Europeans and the Ukrainians. Good to sort out (& hopefully improve) the plan w/o yet more Russian input. Steep path to that goal, but Rubio has depth on the issues.

Ukraine’s Zelenskyy Has Options in Response to Latest U.S.-Russian 'Peace Plan' The plan is a mess, but Ukrainians are right to try to work with the draft rather than reject it out of hand.

The US peace plan for Ukraine is a hot mess. Ukraine is under pressure to accept. But they don’t have to chose between surrender & defiance. Here’s how:

www.justsecurity.org/125365/ukrai...

Ukraine’s Zelenskyy Has Options in Response to Latest U.S.-Russian 'Peace Plan' The plan is a mess, but Ukrainians are right to try to work with the draft rather than reject it out of hand.

The draft US-Russia “peace plan” for #Ukraine is a “hot mess,” writes @ambdanfried.bsky.social.

But Ukrainian Pres. Zelenskyy is right to try to work with it rather than reject it outright, Fried says, offering some possible negotiating pointers:

www.justsecurity.org/125365/ukrai...

Roosevelt’s Weak Hand and Trump’s Strong One in Eastern and Central Europe: Will Trump Play His Good Cards? While the president hasn't fully sided with Putin, he hasn't used his favorable strategic position to end Russia's war on Ukraine.

President Trump’s shifts on the #RussiaUkraineWar baffle Ukraine and its neighbors concerned about Putin’s aggression toward Europe.

@ambdanfried.bsky.social examines lessons from history to “make sense of current turmoil.”

Good that JD Vance shows exasperation w/Kremlin stonewalling on Ukraine. Better still if the US acts to increase pressure on Russia and support for Ukraine, which it can.

x.com/wartranslate...

Always read @ambdanfried.bsky.social for nuanced, sober, historically-informed, pragmatic analysis that doesn't skimp on values or justice either.

Here's his latest on how the #Russia-Ukraine war could end and, crucially, what security for #Urkaine really means in practice:

👇

Trump, Zelenskyy, European Leaders in White House Meeting: Progress Toward a Deal? Getting to any deal between Ukraine & Russia will require the United States & Europe to stand by Ukrainians & stare down Russia's demands.

3/3 Link to @ambdanfried.bsky.social's essay at @justsecurity.org

Trump, Zelenskyy, European Leaders in White House Meeting: Progress Toward a Deal?

1/3 A revealing twist in the Ukraine diplomacy.

On the left:

On Tuesday, @ambdanfried.bsky.social anticipated that Witkoff may have missed a deceptive offering by Putin on security guarantees.

On the right:

On Wednesday, @antongerashchenko.bsky.social identifies the Russian move.

Trump, Zelenskyy, European Leaders in White House Meeting: Progress Toward a Deal? Getting to any deal between Ukraine & Russia will require the United States & Europe to stand by Ukrainians & stare down Russia's demands.

US policy is a roller coaster. But after yesterday’s WH meetings, there is a path to greater security for Ukraine, the most critical part of ending Russia’s war of aggression.

www.justsecurity.org/119273/trump...

Trump’s Meeting With Putin: Beware of Traps, Play the Right Card President Trump must avoid Putin’s traps, ramp up the pressure on Russia, and make clear that the United States will back Ukraine’s security.

www.justsecurity.org/118937/trump...

Kissinger, Brzezinski, and the Promise of Realism A cynical realism resonates today, but there is a model for fusing power and values.

A new version of realism is establishing itself in Washington. But two models from the past can reveal a better way forward, writes Daniel Fried.

Trump’s Shift on Ukraine and Russia Viola Gienger is joined by Ambassador Daniel Fried and Dara Massicot to discuss Trump’s policy shift on Ukraine and its impact.

Trump’s Shift on #Ukraine and #Russia: @ambdanfried.bsky.social and @massdara.bsky.social explain what it means and what to look for, in conversation with Just Security’s @violagienger.bsky.social
#RussiaUkraineWar #sanctions

www.justsecurity.org/117252/podca...

JD Vance’s Dangerous View of American Nationhood The power of the American ideal comes not from Americans being a “particular people” with a common heritage—an ethnically-rooted nation like others—but from its being different.

nationalinterest.org/feature/jd-v...

NATO’s Hague Summit Declaration reaffirms Article 5, notes the threat from Russia, commits Allies to 3.5% 1.5% defense spending by 2035, and reaffirms commitment to contribute to Ukraine’s defense. Not glorious but good enough. Sometimes that’s what you need.

www.nato.int/cps/en/natoh...

Trump's Sidelining of Human Rights in Foreign Policy Weakening the U.S. commitment to human rights and the tools to advance them undoubtedly will prove costly.

The Trump administration often dismisses #HumanRights as a serious factor in #ForeignPolicy.

@ambdanfried.bsky.social on history’s lessons about the risks such thinking poses to solidarity and strategic interests:

www.justsecurity.org/115191/trump...

Can Trump Seize a Win in Ukraine? It’s in Trump’s hands to deliver the logic of force: to rally the West, to back Ukraine, squeeze Russia, and set the stage for victory.

Amid pride over recent successful strikes against Russian targets, Ukrainians are realistic about what it will take to end the war – from them, Putin, and President Trump.

@ambdanfried.bsky.social reports from his latest trip to Ukraine:

www.justsecurity.org/114139/trump...

#RussiaUkraineWar

What’s Next for U.S. Diplomacy and Foreign Assistance? - Reiss Center on Law and Security Register here   The State Department has released a reorganization plan that would usher in significant changes to the way the United States conducts its diplomacy and foreign assistance, at a time of...

WEDNESDAY 12-1pm ET @ambdanfried.bsky.social, Dafna Rand, Michael Schiffer, & @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org discuss the #DOS reorganization, #USAID, and more.

Unpack what’s happening, what’s at stake, and what lies ahead with @rcls-nyu.bsky.social

Zoom RSVP:
www.lawandsecurity.org/calendar/wha...

Is the U.S. Abandoning the Fight Against Foreign Information Operations? The Trump administration's policy shift paves the way for foreign propaganda to flourish, leaving Europe to step into the breach.

The US & Europe were just getting a handle on how to reduce the influence of malign foreign information operations.

With the Trump administration’s retreat, can Europe step up more?

From @ambdanfried.bsky.social:

www.justsecurity.org/113163/is-us...

What’s Next for U.S. Diplomacy and Foreign Assistance? - Reiss Center on Law and Security Register here   The State Department has released a reorganization plan that would usher in significant changes to the way the United States conducts its diplomacy and foreign assistance, at a time of...

What’s Next for U.S. Diplomacy and Foreign Assistance?

An important discussion with leading experts

@ambdanfried.bsky.social
Dafna Rand
Michael Schiffer
@mwhanna.crisisgroup.org

Co-hosted with @rcls-nyu.bsky.social

Weds May 14 | 12-1pm ET | Zoom

#USAID #DOS #diplomacy

What’s Next for U.S. Diplomacy and Foreign Assistance? - Reiss Center on Law and Security Register here   The State Department has released a reorganization plan that would usher in significant changes to the way the United States conducts its diplomacy and foreign assistance, at a time of...

Join us Wed. at noon! 🕛 Hear from @ambdanfried.bsky.social, Dafna Rand, Michael Schiffer & @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org as they unpack the impact of the proposed State Dept. restructuring.

5/14 | 12-1pm | Zoom
Hosts: @rcls-nyu.bsky.social @justsecurity.org

www.lawandsecurity.org/calendar/wha...