Doug Fuller

yes, an increase of all pre-April 8 tariffs so *only* 24% increase. BUT there are lots of other tariffs. 301 tariffs (eg semiconductors, solar components, tungsten) stack on top of current and future snap-back tariffs whereas 232 tariffs (eg tariffs on Chinese cars) do not

so if Chinese yuan is undervalued vs USD by nine percent, then Trump just agreed to have higher effective tariffs inclusive of currency devaluation on US exports going to China (19.9%) than Chinese exports going to the US (18.3%)

This thread is now a blog post, in which I discover that some of the language people find encouraging was just reused from that time China's spokesperson called reports of talks "fake news"!
open.substack.com/pub/gwbstr/p...

‘Stuff should be made here’: Ohio shrugs off Trump tariff turmoil Company owners say the president’s measures will result in more manufacturing in the US

"Lorain County, which voted overwhelmingly for Trump in November’s election, is keeping the faith."
🧐Trump actually won just 52% of vote there

"Even some Democrats support the idea of tariffs."
No kidding! Sherrod Brown (D) is 1 and won Lorain

www.ft.com/content/d233...

@cqchoi.com comments on that Nature article below

6/and I don't see any reason this will be different.

The multiple masking that SMIC is doing has a much better chance of getting there, since at some
point they can just eat the cost.

5/the thin semiconducting film rather than define the length with lithography. They did a nice job of talking about the tools they built to design the processor, but the actual tested circuits were pieces. Yield reliability of a new material has rarely made it against super scaled CMOS

4/Like many academic papers these days there is a lot of exaggeration. The technical contribution was an integrated processor fo 2-D transistors. Essentially since the channel is vertical they can define the channel length which is the distance the charge has to travel with deposition of

3/talked to EE professor who is an expert in semiconductors about the paper

2/this research came from this paper in Nature

World’s first 1-nanometre RISC-V chip made in China with 2D materials China’s chip industry has reached a major milestone after scientists developed the world’s most complex semiconductor microprocessor.

1/last week SCMP made big claims about major milestone in China's chip research www.scmp.com/news/china/s...

1/

Doug Fuller on Substack as far as anyone without access to the contract details can tell, Trump administration doesn’t have much if any leeway in cancelling payments as long as the milestones are hit so this aspect of the po...

substack.com/@dougfuller1...

Yes Autor correct up to a pt but there is still the problem of the structurally oversaving nations depending on open trade/finance economies to run trade deficits (overconsume&underproduce).Targeted policies only shift sectoral specialization, do not solve underproduction
nytimes.com/2025/03/18/b...

Thanks to Donald Trump, Canada's Liberal Party suddenly looks competitive in the upcoming federal election - NPI's Cascadia Advocate For more than a year, Canada's Conservatives have appeared to be on a glide path to forming the nation's next government. But Donald Trump's return and the trade war that he started have changed that.

I'm writing a screenplay––possibly based on true events–– about how Trump is actually a puppet of Canada's Liberal Party. I'm calling it The Manitoba Candidate

www.nwprogressive.org/weblog/2025/...

Are State-Owned Enterprises Instruments of the State or Autonomous Agents? State-owned enterprises (SOEs) are often considered instruments of the state, established to implement government policy. Based on various empirical examples, guest bloggers Olivier Butzbach, Dougl…

LSE International Development blog post on our new book @gerhardschnyder.bsky.social

blogs.lse.ac.uk/internationa...

One week left for FREE download of this book!

State-Owned Enterprises as Institutional Actors in Contemporary Capitalism and Beyond Cambridge Core - Governance - State-Owned Enterprises as Institutional Actors in Contemporary Capitalism and Beyond

⚠️ You think State-owned enterprises (SOEs) are instruments of the state?

Think again!....or read our brand new Cambridge Elements on 'State-owned Enterprises as Institutional Actors.'

📯 🔊 Now available for free download for two weeks: www.cambridge.org/core/element...

Ohio lawmakers plan to propose ‘The Conception begins at Erection Act’ Two state lawmakers are planning to introduce a bill that they’ve nicknamed the Conception Begins at Erection Act.

World-class legislative trolling by Democrats in OH legislature: introduced bill to ban men from ejaculating unless intent on conception, exemptions for sperm donation, LGBTQ+ and masturbation. Highlighting hypocrisy of the right in controlling women's bodies. www.cleveland19.com/2025/02/14/o...

DeepSeek's AI 'breakthrough' isn't what it seems Chinese company's so-called efficiency gains don't eliminate need for massive AI compute

My new piece in Nikkei Asia:
asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/Deep...

2/or rather Taiwan's fiscal probity is not actually a good thing. Taiwan could use more spending on fiscal base. Taiwan's current expenditures as %GDP are lower than any OECD country and half that of the OECD average

Taiwan Is on the Brink of a Constitutional Crisis And maybe a fiscal one, too. And no, it has nothing to do with China.

www.kharistempleman.com/blog/taiwan-...

1/Interesting piece (unfortunately no direct way to post it to bluesky though the blog has direct posting function to that other social media app) but on one minor point, I would disagree that these moves threaten to undermine Taiwan's fiscal discipline

The golden age of trusting everything you read on Facebook is over.

Exclusive: Foxconn stops sending Chinese workers to India iPhone factories In addition, equipment shipments are delayed, potentially disrupting next-generation iPhone production in India.

"sources said the Chinese government is responsible for the suspensions of worker deployments and equipment exports."
Hmmm sounds like the Chinese government is quite worried about emerging competition from India.
restofworld.org/2025/china-f...

Oof! First reference to Bluesky in the U.S. Supreme Court comes from Justice Elena Kagan, who uses it as an example of how it isn't just TikTok that has "black box" algorithms, all the social media sites do.

Valid argument, bad example—Bluesky's algorithms are open-source.

Is comparative advantage valid in a geopolitical world? Richard Baldwin, IMD, 3 January 2025, Factful Friday. Introduction.

Baldwin squaring trade economics w/geopolitics
"comparative adv necessitates a nuanced re-evaluation. While efficiency remains a critical metric, policy makers must now weigh this against the risks w/overreliance on ...adversarial trading partners"
www.linkedin.com/pulse/compar...

David Lodge, Campus Trilogy novelist and academic, dies aged 89 The author of more than two dozen books is best known for his trio set in a fictionalised version of the University of Birmingham, where he worked from 1960 to 1987

RIP David Lodge
I originally thought his hilarious trilogy was satire but then I went to work in British academia and came to realize it was just Geertzian thick description of the reality of British academic life
www.theguardian.com/books/2025/j...