Atomsk's Sanakan

Thank you for pointing it out, and for providing an infilled analysis before that pre-print came out.

Hopefully that + uncertainty estimates are enough for inclusion in IPCC AR7.

Does anyone know if @micefearboggis.bsky.social was updated on this?

diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/2024/11/22/i...

You want to do your own research? Help out with this.

In retrospect, I should have asked for a comparison relative to 1850-1900 for DCENT or infilled DCENT from @brucettcalvert.bsky.social.

But I don't think ahead. 🤦‍♂️

doi.org/10.26050/WDC...
doi.org/10.1038/s415...

diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/2024/11/22/i...
[ www.realclimate.org/index.php/ar... ]

Yup. That's true on climatology, virology, infectious disease epidemiology, nutritional epidemiology, etc.

bsky.app/profile/atom...

He's pandering to cranks + conspiracists, as usual.

x.com/AtomsksSanak...

t.co/yK9tWPMKMo

Time series from 1850 to 2050 showing the CMIP6 model spread (grey) and constrained spread (pink), compared to GISTEMP observations. Projections are shown as the mean of the model spread, a linear trend from 1970, and a projection from Hansen et al (2024). The mean of the constrained projections shows an acceleration over the linear trend and is not distinguishable from the Hansen projection.

Here (1880-1899 baseline should be close enough, I hope?).

It is helpful, thank you. I should have clarified why I asked for 1850-1900. My mistake.

It was to compare to the pre-industrial baseline used in the Paris agreement, as you likely know:
climate.copernicus.eu/climate-indi...

But I think this works.

www.realclimate.org/index.php/ar...

Thank you

Sorry to bug you, and feel free to ignore this request if you don't have time.

Is it possible to get a version of this graph where the y-axis is relative to the pre-industrial baselines of 1850-1900?

Likely not since GISTEMP only goes back to 1880?

www.realclimate.org/index.php/ar...

Ridley also misinformed on vaccines by using the nirvana fallacy.

"Vaccines don't stop infections"
x.com/mattwridley/...

x.com/gorskon/stat...

Ridley:
“the Cochrane Collaboration, a non-profit research group”
www.mattridley.co.uk/blog/the-rea...

Cochrane:
www.cochranelibrary.com/cdsr/doi/10....

YouTube video by Professor Dave Explains Matt Ridley is Lying to You About Climate Change

Ridley uses lab leak as an excuse for him being repeatedly wrong about the pandemic. 🤷‍♂️

“[…] I have been wrong about a lot during this pandemic.”
www.spectator.co.uk/article/stre...
[ archive.is/BlTYx#select... ]

1:38:02 to 1:40:06 :
www.youtube.com/watch?v=C-gd...

Many prominent political conservatives endorse lukewarmism.

So when will they address its falsification?

x.com/AtomsksSanak...

Oren Cass:
www.nationalreview.com/2017/06/clim...

Ross Douthat:
nytimes.com/2017/06/03/opinion/sunday/neither-hot-nor-cold-on-climate.html
[ archive.is/NtNhe#select... ]

YouTube video by Professor Dave Explains Matt Ridley is Lying to You About Climate Change

Some central problems with Ridley's lukewarmism:
1) underestimating warming + sea level rise acceleration
2) dangerous warming happens decades earlier than lukewarmism predicts

For point 1:
45:48 - 58:07
www.youtube.com/watch?v=C-gd...

For point 2:
1:13:18 - 1:27:52
www.youtube.com/watch?v=C-gd...

Others have noted the same point.

bsky.app/profile/atom...

andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2023/03/13/t...

Everyone Else is Lying to You: My Book is Done! The pandemic’s biggest disinformation superspreaders are now in charge. How did this happen?

The sequel to We Want Them Infected is done!

COVID killed 1.2 million Americans while vaccines saved millions.

Yet, disinformation superspreaders were empowered, where they are taking a wrecking ball to science & medicine.

How did that happen?🧵

sciencebasedmedicine.org/everyone-els...

They're also willfully ignorant of Ridley's long history of failed claims on modeling (ex: climate modeling, herd immunity modeling, modeling of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines mitigating transmission, modeling variants with greater IFR, etc.)

Spelling is their limit of understanding.

x.com/AtomsksSanak...

Andrew Dessler on X: "@AtomsksSanakan FYI, here's a video about Matt Ridley that's worth watching (haven't watched all of it, but what I saw seemed reasonable): https://t.co/cUaP1x87vP" / X @AtomsksSanakan FYI, here's a video about Matt Ridley that's worth watching (haven't watched all of it, but what I saw seemed reasonable): https://t.co/cUaP1x87vP

Linked Youtube comment providing a timestamps for the video:

"Matt Ridley is Lying to You About Climate Change"
www.youtube.com/watch?v=C-gd...

x.com/AndrewDessle...

Public trust dropped for the same reason as the divide between experts vs. the public on evolutionary biology, smoking causing cancer, anthropogenic climate, etc.:

Contrarians stoking ideologically-motivated bias + conspiracism.

x.com/AtomsksSanak...

@kenrice.bsky.social:

Bigots really can be gullible.

x.com/AtomsksSanak...

"a spokesperson for the King's College Hospital NHS Foundation Trust emailed on September 17, 2025, writing...
"This poster has not been produced by the Trust, nor is it on display in any of our hospitals.""
yahoo.com/news/article...

Ebright, Matt Ridley, etc. are also busy peddling transphobia.

Their bigotry so blinded them that they fell for a hoax, along with acting like short-haired cis women who get mastectomies are not women.

www.yahoo.com/news/article...
x.com/AtomsksSanak...

x.com/R_H_Ebright/...
x.com/mattwridley/...

Seems views on the video's tone vary.

@peterdaszak.bsky.social:

x.com/PeterDaszak/...
twitter-thread.com/t/1971239212...

YouTube video by Professor Dave Explains Matt Ridley is Lying to You About Climate Change

A good illustration of some of Matt Ridley's misinformation on COVID-19 pandemic origins:

1:38:13
www.youtube.com/watch?v=C-gd...

YouTube video by Professor Dave Explains Matt Ridley is Lying to You About Climate Change

In case folks don't know the context:

1:41:47 :
www.youtube.com/watch?v=C-gd...

After his modeling failed, he used it for India, despite my warnings on that.

Then this happened in India:
"a collapse of healthcare infrastructure"
journals.plos.org/globalpublic...

He's yet to admit error.

Makes me skeptical when I see him model in other fields.

judithcurry.com/2021/01/10/c...

This isn't my field of expertise; immunology is.

But I saw the same modeling pattern from Dr. Lewis.
He used fancy math to say herd immunity thresholds were low + so large waves wouldn't happen.

I said he was wrong.
He didn't listen

judithcurry.com/2020/05/10/w...

judithcurry.com/2021/01/10/c...

Some commentary:

andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2022/09/18/t...

"unjustifiable priors (things that no-one would have suggested before the calculation) whose mathematical properties are more important than their realism."
www.realclimate.org/index.php/ar...

esd.copernicus.org/articles/11/...

funny graphic: Nic Lewis' estimates of climate sensitivity over time. he'll be at 3°C before you know it.
h/t @kenrice.bsky.social via andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2025/08/30/c...

Credit to @atomskssanakan.bsky.social for providing the data.

You're welcome.

I missed one, by the way:
Lewis 2018 (2018.42): 2.0°C
doi.org/10.1016/j.js...

I've submitted a comment including that.

bsky.app/profile/teth...

@kenrice.bsky.social:
andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2025/08/30/c...