Christopher Callahan

ice crackdown in new orleans

Hey @agu.org what's your plan for this? The statement on the meeting website is... vague
www.nytimes.com/live/2025/12...

"Captain Gains" on Capitol Hill Shang-Jin Wei & Yifan Zhou WORKING PAPER 34524 DOI 10.3386/w34524 ISSUE DATE November 2025 Using transaction-level data on US congressional stock trades, we find that lawmakers who later ascend to leadership positions perform similarly to matched peers beforehand but outperform them by 47 percentage points annually after ascension. Leaders' superior performance arises through two mechanisms. The political influence channel is reflected in higher returns when their party controls the chamber, sales of stocks preceding regulatory actions, and purchase of stocks whose firms receiving more government contracts and favorable party support on bills. The corporate access channel is reflected in stock trades that predict subsequent corporate news and greater returns on donor-owned or home-state firms.

令 1 1 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 1 2 3 4 5 7 8 9 Year Figure 2: Estimated dynamic quasi-difference-in-differences coefficient, di, of equation(3), with vertical dashed lines representing 90 percent confidence intervals. The point estimate of the year in which the lawmaker became a congressional leader (Year 0) is normalized to zero. BHAR over the 250 days following each trade is the dependent variable and calculated using the Fama-French five-factor plus momentum as the benchmark model.

After becoming a congressional leader, a politician’s stock portfolio beats out those of peers by 47 (!!!) percentage points a year through trades timed around bills and firms that later get government contracts

www.nber.org/papers/w34524

via @florianederer.bsky.social

The Conservative Grievance Business Is Always Hiring | Defector Given his age when he first came to the world’s attention and assuming continued good health in the intervening decade and change, Marine Todd would be in his late 30s today. That would be if he was a...

I wrote about the dirty, demeaning, absolutely booming business of turning something like a shitty bigoted college essay into a shitty public career as a bigot, and also estimated how old Marine Todd would be today. defector.com/the-conserva...

The AEA has imposed a lifetime ban on Lawrence H. Summers’ membership and participation in AEA activities. See the full statement here. www.aeaweb.org/news/aea-sta...

External to what?

if we learned anything from covid, it's that a society-wide pandemic makes people totally normal

This is figure 2, which shows temperature–mortality relationship across Europe.

A study in Nature Climate Change quantifies the potential for extreme heat events in Europe to generate mass mortality and projects tens of thousands of excess deaths. go.nature.com/483zJc3 🧪

Jared Harris, who I fully acknowledge is one of the best character actors ever, doing a weird voice: Boo! Get off my screen
Lady who plays camina drummer doing a weird voice: I Would Brave Machine Gun Fire to Show Her a Single Spreadsheet

Check out insurance subrogation - basically the idea of insurers suing fossil fuel companies after they have to pay out climate-driven insurance claims

In Memphis, where people fear Elon Musk’s supercomputer is making them ill Colossus, an xAI supercomputer, is blamed for worsening air pollution in a historic black community

“While Shelby County has recorded the dirtiest air in Tennessee for many years — half the state’s admissions for childhood asthma come from there — local residents say the arrival of Colossus has made things worse.”

And one more other thing I’m seeing now, that Northwestern unsurprisingly didn’t mention in its statement, effectively banning gender affirming care at NU school of medicine

The legal, media, and academic institutions capitulating to an authoritarian ordering payments for favorable treatment are damning themselves to irrelevance. They are destroying their institutions. They will be — and should be — shunned for failing in their most basic purposes for existing.

Claiming this is not a problem in academia is totally flabbergasting actually

I had a journalism teacher who told me he first thought Christensen was really hamming it up but then he watched some videos of Glass and decided the movie actually nailed it perfectly

sunshine: comes from heaven, bright, warm, gives life too all

oil: a disgusting and poisonous black ichor that has to be sucked from the bowels of the earth, literally made of death

Trump EPA moves to abandon rule that sets tough standards for deadly soot pollution The Trump administration is seeking to abandon a rule that sets tough standards for deadly soot pollution, arguing that the Biden administration did not have authority to set the tighter standard on p...

The Trump regime wants to make us less healthy and more dead.

I thought everyone knew he believed this lol - he’s been saying it since his first term!

The Republicans are standing up to the power of Big Emergency Brake

www.wsj.com/business/aut...

Dartmouth is hiring climate science postdocs through the prestigious Provost's Fellowship!

Info: apply.interfolio.com/178090

Applications are due February 15, 2026.

Come join our collaborative and supportive climate community! Reach out to me (mankin@dartmouth.edu) with questions.

Alex Blechman @alexblechman.bsky.social We didn't need all these biographical Willy Wonka movies about who he is as a person. In the older versions, he's obviously God or the Devil. You're supposed to spend the entire story wondering which one and gradually become worried they're the same being February 28, 2024 at 12:10 PM

Increasing risk of mass human heat mortality if historical weather patterns recur - Nature Climate Change The authors couple calculations of historical heatwave intensity at present and future global temperatures with exposure–response functions to quantify mortality from extreme heat events in Europe. Th...

This is a remarkable paper on the climate-induced heatwave death in Europe and how they will increase in a warming world.

www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Climate Realism Is a Delusion By shooting for 3 degrees Celsius of warming, the world could slide toward a more cataclysmic 4 degrees.

Wrote about how climate change is bad www.theatlantic.com/science/2025...

I assume going after Mass v EPA is the endgame here anyway

As international climate negotiations avoid direct confrontation with carbon power once again, a reminder that major fossil fuel companies can be traced to trillions of dollars in damages from extreme heat globally.
rdcu.be/ei0T5

Carbon majors and the scientific case for climate liability - Nature A transparent and reproducible scientific framework is introduced to formalize how trillions in economic losses are attributable to the extreme heat caused by emissions from fossil fuel companies, whi...

Thank you @climateconnections.bsky.social for bringing this important paper by @ccallahan45.bsky.social & @jsmankin.bsky.social to my attention. Three cheers for their research and for the powerful lede to their abstract:

1/x

As international climate negotiations avoid direct confrontation with carbon power once again, a reminder that major fossil fuel companies can be traced to trillions of dollars in damages from extreme heat globally.
rdcu.be/ei0T5

Increasing risk of mass human heat mortality if historical weather patterns recur - Nature Climate Change The authors couple calculations of historical heatwave intensity at present and future global temperatures with exposure–response functions to quantify mortality from extreme heat events in Europe. Th...

Analysis from @marshallburke.bsky.social and colleagues indicates that while mitigating further global warming can reduce heat mortality, mass mortality events remain plausible at near-future temperatures despite current adaptations to heat.

📄 READ HERE: ow.ly/CPRy50XtOnv

In a rapidly warming world, heat waves will become mass mortality events. If 2003 European heat wave were to recur with 1.5 °C of warming (we're close to that today), this study predicts 17,800 excess deaths across Europe in *one week.* With 3 C of warming, the toll rises to 32,000.

Few things bug me more than higher ed leaders saying that we lost our mission and lost the trust of the public, when we have actually been the target of a decades-long smear campaign by the right wing that worked. The moment we’re losing our mission is right now, in capitulation.