James Crabtree

Trump’s Nobel Peace Prize Obsession Isn’t Over His vanity is reshaping geopolitics and opens a way to game U.S. policy.

Very interesting piece from @jamescrabtree.bsky.social on how Trump's desire for the Nobel Peace Prize has upsides - as in the push for the Gaza ceasefire - yet is also being studied in Islamabad, Beijing and beyond as a diplomatic opportunity worth gaming out

foreignpolicy.com/2025/10/10/t...

🌏 What are the primary threats to undersea cables in today’s security environment and how can Europe & the Indo-Pacific work together to enhance monitoring & protection of this infrastructure? These questions were addressed at panel III of our Manilna conference.
@ecfr.eu @jamescrabtree.bsky.social

🚨 EMERGENCY WEBINAR 🚨

With Nirupama Rao, Tom Wright, Lindsey Ford, Manisha Reuter, and me!
📅 India: 7:30 PM - 8:30 PM IST
Europe: 4:00 PM - 5:00 PM CEST
UK: 3:00 PM - 4:00 PM BST
USA: 10:00 AM - 11:00 AM EDT

🔗 Register
eu01web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...

@ecfr.eu

Trump’s attacks on India have prompted New Delhi to reassess its diplomatic strategy – in his latest paper, @jamescrabtree.bsky.social discusses India’s back-up plan in a shifting world and the emerging potential for EU-India relations.
➡️ buff.ly/ncSI3Cb

Pivot to Europe: India’s back-up plan in Trump’s world Tensions with Trump will prompt India to seek rapprochement with Beijing, but the underlying competitive dynamics in China-India relations are unlikely to change. Against this backdrop…

American hostility towards India should not drive New Delhi to shift away from the West entirely. Europe provides a promising pathway—one that can help India balance its risks without rapidly escalating tensions with China, writes @jamescrabtree.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/3JWyGlU

🚨 NEW REPORT ALERT 🚨 New paper for @ecfr on India's global position as its ties with the US crumble.

Basic argument is that Europe, not Russia or China, is the next best option for a rebalance.

I DID NOT need this quote from @jamescrabtree.bsky.social's newsletter.

(or maybe I did, I'm not sure. In any case, it's an excellent newsletter)

Taiwan’s Trump problem Are the sands shifting for US policy in the Indo-Pacific region?

This @gideonrachman.bsky.social podcast with @jamescrabtree.bsky.social is a remarkable indictment of Trump & his wrecking years and years of US Indo-Pacific diplomacy. Astounding how he is allowed to shoot his own country in the foot.

Latest @foreignpolicy.com. Xi and Putin will court Modi this weekend. I doubt very much India will take the bait, for good reason. Thoughts welcome as ever.

Gift link — foreignpolicy.com/2025/08/27/i...

Europe’s biggest port readies for potential war with Russia Rotterdam has started reserving space for Nato supply ships and planning military exercises

💥Rotterdam (Europe’s largest port) is preparing for a potential conflict with Russia by reserving space for military ships.

Another great spot by @andybounds.bsky.social

www.ft.com/content/0c42...

the correct political economy take on Oasis is that their career perfectly mirrored left-neoliberalism: 1994-2009 was the period between Blair's abandoning of Clause Four, and the dawn of post-GFC austerity

Leaving @ecfr.eu’s #ACM25 in Warsaw after two days of ideas and discussion. The mood among the European foreign-policy crowd: somewhere between pessimism and realism. A gloomy consensus that mounting global disorder will demand cannier policymaking.

In Warsaw for two days of discussion at the @ecfr.eu council meeting, kicked off by @radek-sikorski.bsky.social, eloquent on "security Europe".

The lesson of global oligarchy: if billionaires fight with autocrats, the autocrats win.

My latest in @foreignpolicy.com on Musk's grim road ahead if he doesn't back down.

Gift Link — foreignpolicy.com/2025/06/09/e...

China, Russia and the remaking of the Eurasian supercontinent Three books offer a guide to shifting power in the region and what it means for the US and Europe

Appreciate the thoughtful book review of Tides of Fortune this weekend in @financialtimes.com. Thanks @jamescrabtree.bsky.social!

www.ft.com/content/47d6...

Escalation in South Asia: Europe’s core interests amid crisis between India and Pakistan This week, tensions between India and Pakistan have led to direct combat and fatalities. As the confrontation escalates, Europeans will likely have to take clear sides and re-assess the role of…

As the confrontation between India and Pakistan escalates, Europeans will likely have to take clear sides and re-assess the role of Chinese military technology in future wars—which could be much closer to home, write @jankaoertel.bsky.social & @jamescrabtree.bsky.social

Escalation in South Asia: Europe’s core interests amid crisis between India and Pakistan This week, tensions between India and Pakistan have led to direct combat and fatalities. As the confrontation escalates, Europeans will likely have to take clear sides and re-assess the role of Chines...

For India, it poses procurement questions; for Europe, it brings home a debate about the advanced capabilities that China is able and willing to provide for—and co-develop with—its partners, including Russia.

ecfr.eu/article/esca...

As the first fatal combat interaction of modern Chinese and European fighter jets, this event demonstrated Chinese technological advances in radar and missile capabilities.

Exclusive: Pakistan's Chinese-made jet brought down two Indian fighter aircraft, US officials say A top Chinese-made Pakistani fighter shot down at least two Indian military aircraft on Wednesday, two U.S. officials told Reuters, marking a major milestone for Beijing's advanced fighter jet.

(4) China. A Chinese-made J-10C aircraft operated by Pakistan, equipped with PL-15 long-range air-to-air missiles, conducted its first-known air-to-air kill in live combat by shooting down a France-produced Indian Rafale.

www.reuters.com/world/pakist...

But clearer positioning will be necessary as the crisis further escalates. Put bluntly European nations will likely prioritise burgeoning relationship with India over concerns about worsening ties with Pakistan.

Gymnich: press remarks by High Representative Kaja Kallas after the meeting Good afternoon, everybody.    It is great to be here in Warsaw again and this Gymnich format meeting where we had very frank, very open discussions on very many issues that are topical today.   Of cou...

3. Europe so far has played it safe calling for moderation from "both sides". But beyond the US, most of the actual diplomacy is being done by Middle Eastern powers, not the west. But....

www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/gymnich...

Turkey's Role In Focus After Pakistan's Military Escalation Against India Pakistan's massive escalation along the Line of Control (LoC) in Jammu and Kashmir and the International Border in other states had a Turkish link.

2. The military challenge in managing escalation relates to (Turkish) drones, which are out of the ordinary for Indo-Pak clashes. It's hard to know what counts as escalation, and both sides want to avoid precendents.

www.ndtv.com/world-news/o...

Escalation in South Asia: Europe’s core interests amid crisis between India and Pakistan This week, tensions between India and Pakistan have led to direct combat and fatalities. As the confrontation escalates, Europeans will likely have to take clear sides and re-assess the role of Chines...

5 thought on 🇮🇳🇵🇰 for 🇪🇺 from @jankaoertel.bsky.social & me, for @ecfr.eu.

1. 🇵🇰 military action overnight marks new escalation, with drone attacks on major cities. Likely 🇮🇳 will feel compelled to respond again to maintain escalation dominance, as @shashj.bsky.social notes

ecfr.eu/article/esca...

You have to wonder what Mark Carney's other two wishes were after rubbing that bottle

"In the long run, Mr. Trump’s actions raise the possibility of the United States ceding its dominant position in Asia-Pacific security. Why, after all, would an increasingly inward-looking America defend a region where it has a reduced economic stake?"

The basic point:

"This misguided, incompetent attack on global trade threatens to irreparably harm U.S. influence across the world’s most commercially dynamic region, leaving a vacuum for China to fill.....

Essay in @nytimes just up on Trump's tariff attack on "factory Asia" — and why it should now raise serious questions about long-term future of US security guarantees in the Indo-Pacific too.

www.nytimes.com/2025/04/22/o...

In Delhi this week to speak at a few interesting events. A balmy 41 degrees yesterday. Good to see Stalinism is alive and well.

Looking forward to my marquee panel in Delhi today. Come and marvel as I manage a mere six panelists in 50 minutes, which by local standards, should be a doddle.

In the wake of Trump: The EU’s chance to redefine its India relationship As Ursula von der Leyen prepares to bring her team of European commissioners to New Delhi this week, she should seize the moment to deepen ties with her Indian counterparts. With Donald Trump in the…

As EU-India talks continue in New Delhi, security and defence cooperation is in focus. Could India join PESCO? With global uncertainty rising, a new EU-India defence partnership is on the table.

Read more from @jamescrabtree.bsky.social 📝

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